can you just say wOBA

lets not give up on our handball dreams

(Handball) Eskilstuna Guif - Lugi HF - Goal Handicap - Eskilstuna Guif +2.5 Odds: -110

An interesting development. I usually avoid harness racing during this time because it's trash (1/5 winners, low pools), but last night the pools at Cal Expo were 30% higher than usual. Might have to jump into it a month earlier than usual.

Perth +4.5 over Sydney. No fans so no HCA. Go Bryce Cotton

Bristol Flyers ML. I'm backing the black guys over the white guys in bball all day.

https://www.bristolflyers.co.uk/teams/first-team-squad/

https://www.glasgowrocks.co.uk/team/...-glasgow-rocks

bristols photos are all showing off their muscles

might be compensating for something, i'd be wary

jeff hornacek showed the world you can ball hard with a tiny dick

one later one

(Handball) Eskilstuna Guif - Lugi HF - Total Goals - Under 55.5 Odds: -112

need to fade the over steam

also i believe in your system so lets get this Bristol +3

Handball is such a stupid sport. Going to have to live handicap CAL EXPO tonight to get us back in the black

See everyone at 7:10 pacific for the first race

Bogut vs. Plumlee - we have name recognition in this one.

Wait didn’t Barkley say the opposite about Hornacek?

Added Bristol +194 live. Bristol bench of black guys are outscoring the Glasgow bench of white dudes 24-6 (lol tuned in on youtube live). They had the first half up 7 then dead even until the last minute. We’ve got this.

Well the black guys on Bristol sucked. Nobody could play defense. Something like 76% 2pt % for Glasgow. Go Perth I guess

And there goes some of the few things to bet on left

Super Rugby is also done after the two games today/tonight. The Australian domestic leagues for rugby league and Aussie rules might stick it out awhile longer, but probably not too much longer.

Japanese basketball is back, at least.

i guess i can't just burn $250 on fire flipping coins after tonight

we should go all out on Rugby

i took Jaguares -11 -116 because i don't know. Their logo looks better than Highlanders. and Pinnacle as at -13. Don't know anything about the value of points in Rugby, but 2 seems like a lot. If it's that Rugby that scores by 6 (4 for a try + 2 conversion) I could see the 12 being important. If it's the Rugby that scores by 7 not so much (tho if they miss a conversion 5+7 = 12)

what about NRL tonight?

(Rugby League) Manly Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm - Point Spread - Melbourne Storm -2.0 Odds: +102
(Rugby League) St George/Illawarra Dragons - Wests Tigers - Point Spread - Wests Tigers +2.0 Odds: -104
(Rugby League) St George/Illawarra Dragons - Wests Tigers - Total Points - Under 40.5 Odds: -118

ultrabet has -102 lines and are hanging -2 +102 when pinnacle has -3 -110, so that has to be good?

got the time mixed up on CAL EXPO but lets get it.

i'll use real $ amounts just because units is weird with horse

Race 2, $100 Win on 6
$30 Exacta Box 5/6

Track real sloppy

Lets crowdsource some winnings. Any horse experts or novices jump in here and we can all get it.

11/1 4 got in there at the last second by a photo.



Results 4, 6, 5 rough start

-$160

Race 3:

$100 to Win on 4
$30 EB 4/5
$10 Trifecta Box 4-6

Results race 3: 5,4,6. Four ran out of steam at the end and couldn't catch him.

Exacta: +171
Trifecta: +234
Win: -100

Total So far: +140

Race 4:
$100 Win on 3
$30 EB 3/6
$10 TB 1/3/6

3 took a huge lead early on for some reason, like 15 lengths by the 1/2 mile pole. obviously ran out of steam before he got to the 3/4ths pole. horrible job by the jockey in controlling the horse.

result: 5/7/2

Race 4: -$220
Total: -$80

Race 5:
$100 win 3
$30 Exacta 3 with 4,2
$10 Trifecta 3 with 4,2 with 4,2

Highlanders-Jaguares game got canceled and the Highlanders immediately went into isolation. Rugby union is 5 for a try, 2 for a conversion. But you also have quite a few 3 point penalty kicks so there ends up not being a ton of difference. They also have 3 point drop goals, which used to be common but are rare now, probably due to analytics. Rugby league is 4/2/2 and 1 for the drop goal, which really only happens at the end of a half on the last play or towards the end of a tie game. So even numbers much more valuable than odd numbers.

will we have enough time to learn rugby before they cancel it entirely? it always seems interesting but the limits aren't that high and all the games are like 4am pacific time. I was reading a stats magazine significance and they touted this site

http://www.rugbyvision.com/

It just seems like a basic ELO system and then they treat all points as equal which is the first sign they don't know what they're doing. But maybe their win% could be accurate and it just needs proper converting.



3 was up there in R5 but faded in the stretch to the super chalk 4. Results: 4/2/6

Total: -$280

R6:
$100 win on 2 (currently 9/1, but i'm guessing he's gonna be the favorite)
$30 Exacta 2 w/9,7
$10 Trifecta 2 w/9,7/9,7

2 closed at 6/5 favorite and won pretty easy.
Results Race 6: 2/9/7

Win: +120
Exacta: +147
Trifecta: +227

Total: +214

Race 7:
$100 Win on 7. Lot of money is on the 4 for some reason. It's a good horse, but not 4/5 material. He will probably win, but that price is horrible so lets go with the 7. Last race four sat the entire time and when he was pushed did nothing.
$30 Exacta Box 7,4
$10 TB 4,7,8
$20 EB 7, 8

Probably not. It's all gonna follow the same pattern everywhere I think.

Rugby Vision is kinda like Kenpom. Not remotely useful for betting but fine for fans looking for something better than the typical "pundit". They seem to have a little more than ELO going on (they have a new model that is mostly player ratings for Super Rugby), but they're not beating the market.

Race 7: 4 won by a nose in photo as a 1/2 favorite. 7 did nothing, made a push at the end but it was too late.
4/8/9

Total: -$46, massive swings. Lets try to go on a run these last 4. Tomorrow when we wake up the whole world is going to be different.

Race 8:
1, California Rock, is a massive favorite here. He's dominated at Cal Expo until recently. He's been basically racing every week since summer between Hoosier, Running Aces and Cal Expo. He could be tiring, since they run these horses into the ground and they've been shipping him everywhere across the country.

so lets go with
$100 Win on 4
$100 Win on 6
$30 EB 4,6

If you have to select one I have 6 > 4.

6 wins as a 7/2 - 4 nowhere to be found. 1 jumped out to a lead on the first straightaway but then the 1 got tired and 6 caught him. Top 3: 6/1/2

Win: +$250
Exacta: -60
Total: +144

Race 9:
$100 Win on 9
$30 EB 9,3
$10 TB 9,3,7

Big race but only three horses are actually good.

Result: 9/3/4/1/7

4 and 1 got in the front around the 1/2 mile pole and caused a traffic jam blocking people. Luckily the 9 went to the outside to get around it.

Win: +240
Exacta: +318
Trifecta: -$60
Total: +642

Only 2 left. Lets get it bros.

Race 10:
$100 Win on 3
$20 Exacta 3,1 with 10
$5 TB 3, 1, 10