Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 157 - Sports Betting

Yes, generally I use the consensus lines on Vegas Insider, then remove the vig and put the numbers into a parlay calculator. The player props can get complicated, but Fanduel provides a long list of alternate lines on player points/rebounds/assists that is very useful.

At first I thought I was better off betting even money props on the insurance promo like you suggest. But I know that the value of freebets is higher when used on long shots. Obviously this isn't a true freeroll, but the principle is the same. I lose more often and get the rebate less often, but I think the higher payout on wins more than compensates for the losses. This is a weekly promo on Draftkings so I'd be curious to hear what others think.

Fortunately I'm 20 minutes away from NJ and it's only a slight detour on my work commute. I'm on nine different sites and I haven't made a single -EV bet on any of them. It's a new market and I think the only thing they care about right now is competing for the biggest number of users. I don't see the promos stopping anytime soon!

I know occasionally the odds boost are goods, but I recall about a week ago seeing somebody saying they took an "odds boost" of three teams to win by 10+ (they were all around 7 pt favs) and odds were +2300. I looked alt lines on heritage and put them in a parlay, and it was like +2900, and one of the teams I only needed to set at -9..

Quote

02-27-2020 , 10:48 AM

#3902

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Spoiler:

SOGs Daily: 1-1-0, +0.18u
SOGs YTD: 220-210-2, -1.59u, 525.75u risked, -0.3% ROI

Quote

02-27-2020 , 11:31 AM

#3903

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 21-22

Nicholls State -7
Incarnate Word +11
Navy -1

If IW starts covering we are going to blow the lid off this thing.

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 23-23

We are now 0-4 backing Incarnate Word. Can a world class model be completely wrong about one team? Probably, but my philosophy in these spots is to sanity check my metrics for the struggling team and if all is well continue to barrel. Scared money don't make money.

Mount St. Mary's +8.5

Quote

02-27-2020 , 02:09 PM

#3904

donkey

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by konbanwa

You're right that freebets need to be used on as long of a shot as possible (taking into account vig). But you also want to maximize the % that the promo refunds you so in this case optimal strategy would be to bet 1 leg that is -10000 and 1 leg that is +10000. There's probably terms that say both legs have to be better than -200 or something so find a -195 doubledouble market and for the 2nd leg either a long shot tripledouble or 1st basket market (you still need to make sure they are reasonable offers, not +400 for something that is truly +600).

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02-27-2020 , 02:32 PM

#3905

zplusz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 656

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Navy -1

Got this and the others, if I hadn't got this woulda lost big cuz got nicholls st -8 and it then immediately moved to -7.5. Instead just lose the juice. Vexing.

This is why I don't bother trying to tail you guys.

GL to you.

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02-27-2020 , 03:51 PM

#3906

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Gotta be the market maker not the market chaser. With all the consolidation of books it's becoming more important.

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02-27-2020 , 04:01 PM

#3907

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

MTL Joel Armia o2.5 +121
NYR Ryan Strome u2.5 -135
NYR Jacob Trouba o1.5 -158
OTT Connor Brown u2.5 -119
MIN Kevin Fiala u2.5 +125
SJS Brent Burns u3.5 -107
SJS Kevin Labanc u2.5 +100
NJD Jack Hughes u2.5 -168

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02-27-2020 , 07:06 PM

#3908

konbanwa

adept

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 769

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckMe

IME the boosts are good at least half the time. Except on Foxbet, where 99% of them are awful. **** you Foxbet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkey

Thank you, that makes sense!

Here's today's info. Hopefully someone finds it useful:

Spoiler:

Draftkings

Domantas Sabonis to score 32.5 combined points/rebounds & Pacers to win +145
True odds +159. Correlation probably makes this close. Wish I knew how to calculate that. Pass.

Sixers & Thunder & Lakers all to win +145
True odds +130. Max bet $173

Gonzaga to win by 30 points or more +165
True odds +175. Pass.

Michigan & Colorado & Ohio State all to win +130
True odds +126. Max bet $168

Rangers & Knicks both to win +680
True odds were +618 a few hours ago but I'm glad I waited cause now it's +693. Pass.

Artemi Panarin & Chris Kreider each to score a Goal +740
True odds +816. Pass.

Capitals & Islanders & Bruins all to Win +560
True odds +614. Pass.

Wisconsin & Indiana & Oregon State all to Win +6000
True odds +6347. Pass.

Fanduel

Malcolm Brogdon to Score 20+ Points and the Pacers to Beat the Trail Blazers +330
True odds +287. Max bet $50

Chris Paul to Have a Double Double and Thunder to Beat Kings +450
True odds at worst +404. Max bet $50.

Michigan & Colorado & Ohio State all to win +130
I'm seeing double. True odds +126. Max bet $50

Lightning, Bruins, and Capitals All to Win +325
True odds +324.85. Max bet $50 and enjoy your pennies in EV.

Sugarhouse/Betrivers

Tobias Harris to record 25 or more Points & 10 or more Rebounds +450
True odds +796. lol it's amazing how some boosts are so good and some are so so bad. Pass.

Knicks, Thunder & Lakers all to Win +600
True odds +487. Max bet $72

Julius Randle, Chris Paul & Andrew Wiggins each to score Over 19.5 Points +700
True odds +650 Max bet $72

Wisconsin OR Nebraska OR Oregon State to Win -110
True odds -112. Barely profitable. Max bet $50

76ers & Temple both to Win +650
True odds +628. Max bet $72

Pacers & Indiana (ncaab) both to Win +400
True odds +314. Max bet $72

Rangers, Islanders & Devils all to Win +1500
True odds +1188. Max bet $72

Sugarhouse and BetRivers were both letting me put $100 on profit boosts yesterday. Now it appears my limits have been reduced. $72 on sugar and only $48 on rivers. Hopefully it doesn't get worse.

Unibet

30% profit boost
Sixers/Knicks live bets only. Can be used on a single wager, $50 max.

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02-27-2020 , 08:39 PM

#3909

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Any player bench presses over 38½ times +150
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +145
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +130
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +130
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +110
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +105
Any player bench presses over 38½ times +100
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -105
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -115
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -120
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -125
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -115
Any player bench presses over 38½ times -125

Spoiler:

sweating these

Longest broad jump under 138½ inches x 11at + odds
J.Dobbins 40-Y Dash time over 4.54 sec x 4 at + odds > 200
40-Yard Dash best time under 4.29 secs x 5

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02-27-2020 , 09:11 PM

#3910

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

damn donovan peoples-jones got us in the broad jump by half an inch

need a re-measurement

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:15 AM

#3911

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

What do you sharps think about this?

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/27/81015...pt-tokyo-games

couple books are offering a will the olympics be delayed or cancelled props

only $100 limits but i hit no cancel at -230, then -190, then it -155, then -170, then -120 and it is still moving against us so I keep betting it every time it gets reset

Do you think it's because Dick Pound screwed things up couple days ago saying it will be canceled? Have to tie up the money until July but tying up ~1k for a $600 or so return in 5 months doesn't seem too bad. And if the Coronavirus gets bad enough to cancel the olympics we probably gonna die anyway so losing 1k won't matter because the economy will crash.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:16 AM

#3912

iloveny161

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,967

Quote:

Originally Posted by zplusz

Sorry to hear this man, it really sucks when it happens and it seems to happen a lot. I lost quite a bit earlier (~40 units or about 15 dodge rams) this year tailing some of the plays in this thread during a bad run where I would somehow only get money down on the plays that lost (which makes sense, but not to the extent it had been happening). Decided to start betting my own stuff and have been able to recover a portion of my losses. Hope things start to get better for you.

Iowa's plays are definitely $$ though, we can see that just based on how much the market moves after he bets them. Definitely +EV if you get the same number. Just not worth chasing if its 5 cents off or worse though, since the edge is likely gone by then.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:23 AM

#3913

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

just chase XFL, points are meaningless there

if they cover, they're doing so by 20 points

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:44 AM

#3914

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,787

Some of the pro poker players on twitter are betting on WSOP to get cancelled this year at 20 to 1, or laying 20 to 1 on no cancel. I think one guy is taking only 12 to 1.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:47 AM

#3915

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

that might happen, but no way IOC and Tokyo are cancelling after dropping 25+ billion into it even if they have a 900 mil emergency fund

The IOC is almost as corrupt and greedy as FIFA

Caesars is only a lil greedy in comparison

Quote

02-28-2020 , 06:52 AM

#3916

JSkelts

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 623

Bet Excel as it was posted at +190 for multiple units and its now +155 w their opponent at -185. Its tempting to arb this, am I a stone cold grocery money gambling fish if I pass up the guaranteed money and let it ride?

Quote

02-28-2020 , 08:10 AM

#3917

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Also with the chasing thing, even taking some bets at 1/2 point off could turn it into a bad bet. On some of the major sports the profit window is pretty thin. Getting a point worse could be ~3% difference in covering and the difference between a winning player and losing.

Why it's better to be a market marker than a chaser. Plus then you have a reason why you're betting vs. steam chasing and the line moves but no one knows why.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 10:36 AM

#3918

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Spoiler:

SOGs Daily: 5-3-0, +1.92u
SOGs YTD: 225-213-2, +0.33u, 535.62u risked, +0.06% ROI

Quote

02-28-2020 , 10:52 AM

#3919

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

yes we did it tomg. i hope to somehow be there in nascar

lets never go negative again

Quote

02-28-2020 , 11:01 AM

#3920

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by iloveny161

Iowa's plays are definitely $$ though, we can see that just based on how much the market moves after he bets them. Definitely +EV if you get the same number. Just not worth chasing if its 5 cents off or worse though, since the edge is likely gone by then.

My posted record is a losing one but wanted to cosign the rest of this. The names of the school are goofy, but the extra market has gotten sharper over the last two years on account of them posting lines for these teams every day. Most of these I would not bet at a half point worse, but if you see the same line I posted that usually means I got faded and haven't noticed and had the chance to bet it back yet so fire away.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 11:53 AM

#3921

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 15,059

Quote:

Originally Posted by konbanwa

I've been doing daily analysis of the odds boosts and promos offered on sites like Draftkings and Fanduel. I'm not a handicapper or sports expert by any means, I simply use a couple of online calculators to figure out if the bets are profitable or not. So far I've just been emailing a couple of my friends, but if there's interest I can post here too. I'm in Pennsylvania, and these websites are only available in a handful of states right now, but expansion is definitely in the future. Please let me know if you see any glaring mistakes.

Spoiler:

Feb 26

Draftkings

Pittsburgh Penguins & Villanova Wildcats & Philadelphia 76ers all to win +170
True odds +130. Max bet $24.90

76ers & Nets & Heat all to Win +215
True odds +193. This is a good example of a bet that probably wasn't profitable when it was first posted this morning, but in the past few hours the lines on all 3 games went up by a half point or a full point. Since this is a promotional offer, the numbers aren't automatically adjusted like they would be elsewhere on the site. We reap the benefits of getting a boost on the original lines. Max bet $172

Jayson Tatum to score Over 25.5 Points & Celtics to Win +385
"True" odds +439, correlation makes this close but I can't be sure. Reluctantly pass.

Marquette to Win & Over 151.5 total game Points +160
True odds +167. Pass

Villanova to Win by 15 or more Points +125
True odds +140. Pass

Maryland & LSU & Georgetown all to Win +2500
True odds +2357 Max bet $33

Pittsburgh Penguins & Pittsburgh Panthers both to Win +210
True odds +198 Max bet $171

Avalanche & Golden Knights & Kings all to Win +560
True odds +542 Max bet $165

NBA "superstar" parlay insurance
Opt-in and bet a 2+ leg player prop parlay. Get a $25 free bet back if you miss one leg. I think it's best to aim high since it's a semi-freeroll. I parlayed a Kawhi Leonard double-double (+275) with a Russell Westbrook triple-double (+600). If my $25 bet wins I get $650.

Fanduel

76ers, Mavericks, and Clippers All to Win +200
True odds +178. Max bet $50

Ja Morant 20+ Points, Russell Westbrook 30+ Points, and 237+ Total Points Scored +520
"True" odds +667. Not enough correlation. Pass

Villanova, Virginia, and Maryland All to Win +320
True odds +298. Max bet $50

Marquette, Syracuse, and Florida All to Win +300
True odds +317. Pass

Avalanche and Golden Knights Both to Win by 2+ Goals +430
True odds +400. Max bet $50

Sidney Crosby to Record 2+ Points and Penguins to Win +200
"True" odds +209 but I'm confident that the correlation is big enough to make this profitable. Max bet $50

Brooks Koepka or Rickie Fowler to Win the Honda Classic +750
Proceed with caution because I might be way off on this - but true odds appear to be only +590. Max bet $50

Sugarhouse/BetRivers

76ers, Knicks & Nets all to Win +420
True odds +316. Max bet $100. Best bet of the day! There's a 76% chance we lose $100, but a 24% chance we win $420. On average, we profit about $25. If you don't think that's a bet worth making, stop reading and block my email address.

Ja Morant to record a double-double & Grizzlies to Win +2000
"True" odds +3176, lower with correlation, but probably not low enough. Pass

Villanova to Win by Over 19.5 Points +300
True odds +336. Pass

Pittsburgh Penguins & Pittsburgh Panthers both to Win +230
True odds +198. Max bet $100

Tommy Fleetwood Or Rickie Fowler to Win the Honda Classic +500
True odds +532. Pass

Foxbet

Heat, Mavericks and Clippers all to win @ +165
True odds +145. Max bet $273

BetMGM (NJ)

76ers, Mavericks, Heat, and Jazz All to Win +300
True odds +251. Max bet ???. I'll find out when I cross the bridge.

Avalance, Golden Knights, and Penguins All to Win +260
True odds +256. Barely profitable. Max bet

Harden/Westbrook 30+ points each +225
"True" odds +183. There's probably a bit of negative correlation here, but IMO it's still profitable. Max bet

BetMGM also has a couple of ongoing promos on hockey (Tue-Thur) and live basketball (Tue-Sat). If you opt-in every week and bet $500 per day on either sport they give you $100 in freebets. $200 if you do both. That's per day. Assuming standard vig, our expected loss on $500 in wagers is $22.50. It's a great deal and makes the trip to NJ worth it for me (yes, I considered the toll in my calculations lol). Plus I can double up on any profitable Sugarhouse bets by using their separate NJ app.

draftkings had a promo the week after the superbow
they would give you up to 100 dollars a day for 3 days matching your biggest profit of the day for 300 max
except in PA it was up to 500 a day for 5 days with 1000 total max
Amazing promo

Also the betmgm hockey promo is now tues-sat but the biggest favorite you can now bet is -150, before there were no restrictions. keep in my the free bets from the hockey promos have to be used on live hockey.

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02-28-2020 , 11:57 AM

#3922

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 15,059

Quote:

Originally Posted by konbanwa

the reason free bets are worth more on big dogs is you don't get your original stake back like you would on cash bets
for this promo i've parlayed 2 guys as close to -200 as possible (the max favorite that qualifies)
keep in mind you have to hit at least 1 to get a free bet if the parlay loses

Quote

02-28-2020 , 11:57 AM

#3923

donkey

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 824

Is Circa the sharpest book these days for obscure stuff like XFL futures? They seem to think that the Battlehawks are the #1 team now (only offering +225) and you can still buy them +500 on foxbet or +450 on Fanduel. I don't know how to actually evaluate an XFL team like sigs but they seem to have the best defense, a non-terrible offense and are in the same division as the Vipers and Guardians. Should I continue the use Circa to pick off futures on other books strategy or am I overrating Circa?

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:19 PM

#3924

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,787

I have found Circa to be pretty sharp in general. I don't know about futures tho.

Quote

02-28-2020 , 12:27 PM

#3925

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Quote:

Originally Posted by zplusz

Yeah, it's too bad.
It's hard to always find the same lines as the the sharps on this thread.
That's why I don't hardly follow their picks. The only ones I really got into were TomG's face off picks. That little line movement can be all the difference.
It may sound by some of my previous posts that I've made a lot of money tailing these guys, but that's not the case at all.
What I'm appreciative for is, through following this thread, I'm learning how to think like a pro. that's all I ever wanted. A year ago I didn't even know what prop bets were.
And I've been betting on sports for at least twenty years!! I'm probably the most primitive sports bettor here.

I'll continue to pursue my own thing. Good luck to me

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 02-28-2020 at 12:35 PM.

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