Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 156 - Sports Betting

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02-23-2020 , 03:50 PM

#3876

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

wow dc total is now o45.5 -119

glad we beat the steam and got that important 45

Quote

02-23-2020 , 05:08 PM

#3877

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i'm sorry i believed in NY

pro: st louis will just rush all 2H and hit the under

Quote

02-23-2020 , 06:01 PM

#3878

cockandbull

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,616

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

You're on the cutting edge so until you publish a paper about your success there won't be any papers to read through.

If I understand your situation correctly, you should just go ahead and parlay Goal YES and the skater's team to win (or Goal NO and the opposing team to win if that is an option). Assuming you have at least somewhat competitive pricing on the team side of the wager, the correlation between Goal YES and that team to win should more than allow you to maintain your positive EV from the goalscorer prop. It's going to involve some crazy bankroll swings since much of the stuff you bet will have odds of +600 or longer.

Congrats on your success.

For the calgary flames tonight anytime goal scorers for the ones i like all decimal odds

name odds what i think the odds should be

d helm 7.5 vs 5.5
a mantha 4 vs 3.3
d larkin 4 vs 3.3
r fabbri 6 vs 4.5
t bertuzzi 4.25 vs 3.9
m blacklund 5.5 vs 4.2
j gaudreau 3.75 vs 3.65
s bennet 7 vs 5.3

now my book offers random things like player to score two or more, hattrick, win forcast(player to score first and team to win), anytime win cast (player to score and team to win), anytime goal scorer(two players to score in the game).

they arent yes/no prices, more a combined odds and offered as a double. you can also bet different combos of anytime goal scorer as player a, b and c all to score etc and again the odds are preset.

all of these im not sure im working out correctly. sorry for the rambling post, im from the UK and have been out all afternoon watching the epl.

bankroll wise its not really a problem, i have a decent although not great six figure sum to play with and the limits wont get near to touching that. i basically started betting on horses using betfair exchange as a guide looking for off market lines and have moved through different markets ending up on american sports because uk providers havent a clue how to work it out.

to give something back, for anyone with access to uk horse racing bookies, pretty much all of them work out the to be placed market wrong.

Quote

02-23-2020 , 06:55 PM

#3879

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

2H went exactly as planned, hope you got the u20.5 for 2H

I can't believe NY is this bad after how they dismantled Tampa back in week 1. 3 of our 5 losses involve NY

Quote

02-23-2020 , 07:27 PM

#3880

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

NY semi-pro guys with no future are clearly gonna make more money throwing games to the mafia than getting their 8th concussion, gotta think 2 steps ahead sigs.

Quote

02-23-2020 , 08:12 PM

#3881

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

lol dc
please hit the over, we can't have a losing day

Quote

02-23-2020 , 08:30 PM

#3882

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

based on cardales end of the half speech, they got them in the 2H

it was such a motivating speech i'm on

DC -7 2H

Quote

02-23-2020 , 09:47 PM

#3883

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

have to lock up those 2 L's

2-3 on the day
16-7-1

if i had a wife and kids i don't know how i would be able to look them in their faces after today knowing how much of a failure we are at XFL

Quote

02-24-2020 , 01:30 AM

#3884

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

I was looking over my XFL results to try and find out where we could have gone wrong today and I noticed something

(ignore the weird cents, that's due to the great place where we bet all the SB props and their weird limits and the fact that there -110 doesn't really mean -110)

We aren't doing that good in spread bets. Are spreads too efficient? Are we running bad? Are we appearing better than we are because totals are so easy? Is betting NY a lot just skewing the results? Did we ruin everything by betting Houston on Friday instead of Monday because we were too busy trying to enjoy life instead of obsessing over XFL openers which caused us to push instead of win? How have we made 35 bets when there's only 12 games - are we betting too many things on each game? I'm still vacationing but I know I won't be able to sleep all week until we figure this out. Even 2H Spreads suck compared to Totals.

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 02-24-2020 at 01:37 AM.

Quote

02-24-2020 , 10:22 AM

#3885

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

I was looking over my XFL results to try and find out where we could have gone wrong today and I noticed something

Sick. Looks like the inverse of my CBB extra results. My only critique would be that you clearly don't bet enough $ on stuff. Push this massive edge hard and get richer imo.

Last edited by Iowa!; 02-24-2020 at 10:33 AM.

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02-24-2020 , 01:20 PM

#3886

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

limits only $500 until this week and vegas laughs if you try to bet anything reasonable. but BM was opening 2H lines at 2k this week, so there's hope.

golf has been horrible this year for volume. every place has $500-1k limits except unbeatable bookmaker with their 10k euro limits. need that "5th major" coming up in a couple of weeks.

non BM books are putting out such bad lines too, even pinnacle. Getting them better than 40-50 cents on close for a lot of them.

Quote

02-24-2020 , 06:15 PM

#3887

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Prairie View A&M -9.5

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 19-22

Alcorn State +3.5
Prairie View A&M -14.5

Bet same teams until they cover system.

Quote

02-25-2020 , 11:32 AM

#3888

zplusz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 656

XFL openers

LA -7 40
St louis -12 38.5
houston -1 50
dc -1 43.5

wild seeing the line adjustments so hard already.

sigs prob busy hitting these openers everywhere. waiting on him to shed some light

Quote

02-25-2020 , 12:32 PM

#3889

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i bet

dc pick
dc/tampa o43.5
houston -1
seattle +13
seattle/st louis u39
LA/NY u40

Quote

02-25-2020 , 10:35 PM

#3890

JSkelts

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 623

Thanks for the input guys, it seems like line movements on day 2 stuff moves pretty significantly post day 1 games - but my hunch is that its not any model based input but just overreactions.

Thinking about this made me really think if line movements in esports are really even that valuable to track. Obviously markets are pretty efficient so my measure of a good bet was usually if I beat the closing lines, but is there even enough sharp money in esports betting for line movements to be meaningful?

Quote

02-25-2020 , 11:06 PM

#3891

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

i mean I saw CSGO major finals limits at 140k USD. So yeah sharps will be going after it for sure.

Quote

02-25-2020 , 11:44 PM

#3892

JSkelts

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 623

Quote:

Originally Posted by bjornb

i mean I saw CSGO major finals limits at 140k USD. So yeah sharps will be going after it for sure.

Thats sick and a bit of a confidence boost then. Thanks.

Quote

02-26-2020 , 03:14 AM

#3893

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

maybe 5 years ago lol

zero chance you get that now

Quote

02-26-2020 , 11:36 AM

#3894

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 19-22

Alcorn State +3.5
Prairie View A&M -14.5

Bet same teams until they cover system.

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 21-22

Nicholls State -7
Incarnate Word +11

If IW starts covering we are going to blow the lid off this thing.

Quote

02-26-2020 , 12:26 PM

#3895

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 21-22

Nicholls State -7
Incarnate Word +11

If IW starts covering we are going to blow the lid off this thing.

Navy -1

Quote

02-26-2020 , 06:51 PM

#3896

konbanwa

adept

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 769

I've been doing daily analysis of the odds boosts and promos offered on sites like Draftkings and Fanduel. I'm not a handicapper or sports expert by any means, I simply use a couple of online calculators to figure out if the bets are profitable or not. So far I've just been emailing a couple of my friends, but if there's interest I can post here too. I'm in Pennsylvania, and these websites are only available in a handful of states right now, but expansion is definitely in the future. Please let me know if you see any glaring mistakes.

Spoiler:

Feb 26

Draftkings

Pittsburgh Penguins & Villanova Wildcats & Philadelphia 76ers all to win +170
True odds +130. Max bet $24.90

76ers & Nets & Heat all to Win +215
True odds +193. This is a good example of a bet that probably wasn't profitable when it was first posted this morning, but in the past few hours the lines on all 3 games went up by a half point or a full point. Since this is a promotional offer, the numbers aren't automatically adjusted like they would be elsewhere on the site. We reap the benefits of getting a boost on the original lines. Max bet $172

Jayson Tatum to score Over 25.5 Points & Celtics to Win +385
"True" odds +439, correlation makes this close but I can't be sure. Reluctantly pass.

Marquette to Win & Over 151.5 total game Points +160
True odds +167. Pass

Villanova to Win by 15 or more Points +125
True odds +140. Pass

Maryland & LSU & Georgetown all to Win +2500
True odds +2357 Max bet $33

Pittsburgh Penguins & Pittsburgh Panthers both to Win +210
True odds +198 Max bet $171

Avalanche & Golden Knights & Kings all to Win +560
True odds +542 Max bet $165

NBA "superstar" parlay insurance
Opt-in and bet a 2+ leg player prop parlay. Get a $25 free bet back if you miss one leg. I think it's best to aim high since it's a semi-freeroll. I parlayed a Kawhi Leonard double-double (+275) with a Russell Westbrook triple-double (+600). If my $25 bet wins I get $650.

Fanduel

76ers, Mavericks, and Clippers All to Win +200
True odds +178. Max bet $50

Ja Morant 20+ Points, Russell Westbrook 30+ Points, and 237+ Total Points Scored +520
"True" odds +667. Not enough correlation. Pass

Villanova, Virginia, and Maryland All to Win +320
True odds +298. Max bet $50

Marquette, Syracuse, and Florida All to Win +300
True odds +317. Pass

Avalanche and Golden Knights Both to Win by 2+ Goals +430
True odds +400. Max bet $50

Sidney Crosby to Record 2+ Points and Penguins to Win +200
"True" odds +209 but I'm confident that the correlation is big enough to make this profitable. Max bet $50

Brooks Koepka or Rickie Fowler to Win the Honda Classic +750
Proceed with caution because I might be way off on this - but true odds appear to be only +590. Max bet $50

Sugarhouse/BetRivers

76ers, Knicks & Nets all to Win +420
True odds +316. Max bet $100. Best bet of the day! There's a 76% chance we lose $100, but a 24% chance we win $420. On average, we profit about $25. If you don't think that's a bet worth making, stop reading and block my email address.

Ja Morant to record a double-double & Grizzlies to Win +2000
"True" odds +3176, lower with correlation, but probably not low enough. Pass

Villanova to Win by Over 19.5 Points +300
True odds +336. Pass

Pittsburgh Penguins & Pittsburgh Panthers both to Win +230
True odds +198. Max bet $100

Tommy Fleetwood Or Rickie Fowler to Win the Honda Classic +500
True odds +532. Pass

Foxbet

Heat, Mavericks and Clippers all to win @ +165
True odds +145. Max bet $273

BetMGM (NJ)

76ers, Mavericks, Heat, and Jazz All to Win +300
True odds +251. Max bet ???. I'll find out when I cross the bridge.

Avalance, Golden Knights, and Penguins All to Win +260
True odds +256. Barely profitable. Max bet

Harden/Westbrook 30+ points each +225
"True" odds +183. There's probably a bit of negative correlation here, but IMO it's still profitable. Max bet

BetMGM also has a couple of ongoing promos on hockey (Tue-Thur) and live basketball (Tue-Sat). If you opt-in every week and bet $500 per day on either sport they give you $100 in freebets. $200 if you do both. That's per day. Assuming standard vig, our expected loss on $500 in wagers is $22.50. It's a great deal and makes the trip to NJ worth it for me (yes, I considered the toll in my calculations lol). Plus I can double up on any profitable Sugarhouse bets by using their separate NJ app.

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02-26-2020 , 07:36 PM

#3897

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

I realized I'm not posting anything lately so thought I would restart SOGs for a bit until MLB starts and then we can do Total Bases

BUF Jeff Skinner o2.5 +118
PIT Bryan Rust o2.5 +118

To refresh your memory, our YTD public record from 01-07-2020
SOGs YTD: 219-209-2, -1.77u, 523.75u risked, -0.3% ROI

Quote

02-26-2020 , 08:04 PM

#3898

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by lvr

maybe 5 years ago lol

zero chance you get that now

it was last years Katowice finals

Quote

02-27-2020 , 01:55 AM

#3899

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by konbanwa

NBA "superstar" parlay insurance
Opt-in and bet a 2+ leg player prop parlay. Get a $25 free bet back if you miss one leg. I think it's best to aim high since it's a semi-freeroll. I parlayed a Kawhi Leonard double-double (+275) with a Russell Westbrook triple-double (+600). If my $25 bet wins I get $650.

BetMGM also has a couple of ongoing promos on hockey (Tue-Thur) and live basketball (Tue-Sat). If you opt-in every week and bet $500 per day on either sport they give you $100 in freebets. $200 if you do both. That's per day. Assuming standard vig, our expected loss on $500 in wagers is $22.50. It's a great deal and makes the trip to NJ worth it for me (yes, I considered the toll in my calculations lol). Plus I can double up on any profitable Sugarhouse bets by using their separate NJ app.

I didn’t look at all of it but your numbers seem pretty sound (I assume you are using no-vig pricing for the parlays).

For the prop parlay, you’re better off just finding the best value bets at lower odds. You only get the rebate if you win 1 leg. For example 2 legs at +100 that are each 50% to win is slightly better than 2 legs at +150 that are each 40% to win.

That’s ambitious. I did this a few times before and it started to wear on me. How far are you from the border?

Quote

02-27-2020 , 03:56 AM

#3900

konbanwa

adept

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 769

Quote:

Originally Posted by atrainpsu

Yes, generally I use the consensus lines on Vegas Insider, then remove the vig and put the numbers into a parlay calculator. The player props can get complicated, but Fanduel provides a long list of alternate lines on player points/rebounds/assists that is very useful.

At first I thought I was better off betting even money props on the insurance promo like you suggest. But I know that the value of freebets is higher when used on long shots. Obviously this isn't a true freeroll, but the principle is the same. I lose more often and get the rebate less often, but I think the higher payout on wins more than compensates for the losses. This is a weekly promo on Draftkings so I'd be curious to hear what others think.

Fortunately I'm 20 minutes away from NJ and it's only a slight detour on my work commute. I'm on nine different sites and I haven't made a single -EV bet on any of them. It's a new market and I think the only thing they care about right now is competing for the biggest number of users. I don't see the promos stopping anytime soon!

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