for XFL I only really evaluated the QB in my picks.

In the AAF it didn't seem to matter too much about the surrounding players, the teams with the best QBs won.

Same with UFL a while back.


Houston, NY, and DAL (Landry Jones isn't great, but relative to the rest of the league he's a top tier QB) have the best QBs. I think NY's to win odds were low because they're in the same division as TB who people thought would dominate because of their coach (he's won a ton in CFL).

I'm just gonna keep riding that strat. I thought maybe defense would matter some (LA should have the best defense since they have mostly ex NFL players), but unless Houston is insanely good then it doesn't matter too much.

XFL punter is important considering the penalty for bad punts. Also teams that go for 1xp in XFL from the same spot as NFLs 2pt conversion have SBR posters working as their OCs. The whole thing makes no sense if you want more scoring. They literally made PAT ev less than NFL.

Houston is gonna win with that QB, best player in the XFL.

I forgot the GOAT Cardale Jones too.

Houston's offense is a little gimmicky, but if no one can defend it doesn't matter. Like that team that plays on the blue field in college football and is just one big scam

Pinnacle up which means we have some added plays. I think in the future I'll just wait for Pinnacle to post so we have consistency across lines sets and by posting later when more goalies are confirmed we'll at least avoid NO ACTION plays.

MTL Carey Price o27.5 -111
TBL Curtis McElhinney o27.5 -118
CBJ Elvis Merzlikins u27.5 -107
VAN Jacob Markstrom o29.5 -111

here are my three XFL bets for next week in reverse strength order! (i.e., Houston is the strongest I feel about)

Seattle +2.5 over Tampa
NY Guardians +5.5 over DC
Houston -7 over St. Louis

rip 5k quarters

after hitting a 11-0 run in the last two days this happened



and account disabled. hope they at least pay out the pending (these 2 and sac +3.5 +100)

only outs for props is the one game a month BM posts
quarters limit cut to nothing
2H limits at BM suck

the end is coming everybody. I hope Matchbook saves us with the most liquid ever on markets

Lasted longer then you expected hope they don't stiff you. My current quarter limits are 40k lol

What does CircaSports make the Houston and Dallas futures? If Houston is a top3 team (and possibly the best???) then +500 at Fanduel seems like a screaming buy. They are the only team in their division with a win and their division seems much easier than the East now. My gut model makes them ~85% to make playoffs, ~60% in division finals and ~50% in the finals = +300 fair to win the chip. What do FD/DK know that we don't know?

LA Wildcats fired their defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson. So maybe the ex NFL players on defense narrative might be true and their DC just sucked

rigs how often do you get stiffed?

can't think of any time but i haven't gotten into the PPH world until recently.

vegas always pays and so does BM and i used them for almost every bet until i tried PPH this year. I also don't bet with other people because it's a set up to get scammed. Like when that guy on here was booking everyones action and the poker players thought they were super smart fleecing this guy and then he just collected his winning bets, didn't pay losers, and disappeared. Good times.

you?

LA also cut their defensive captain. Cleaning house after week 1

Saves Daily: 4-3-0, +0.65u
Saves YTD: 15-9-3, +4.67u, 31.21u risked, +15.0% ROI

Heads up to anyone using http://lines.betcris.com/ to scrape lines. Looks like they put some DDoS protection on it, your programs might be busted.

Luckily it seems like http://lines.bookmaker.eu/ does not have this DDoS thing, at least yet. And I believe they are the same exact book.

TOR Jack Campbell o27.5 -115
DET Jonathan Bernier u27.5 -124
BUF Carter Hutton u25.5 -119
MIN Alex Stalock o28.5 -120
COL Philipp Grubauer o25.5 -120
ANA John Gibson u27.5 -123

Was this tbab or someone else?

Added plays

BUF Carter Hutton u25.5 -119
FLA Samuel Montembeault u27.5 -114
PHI Brian Elliott u26.5 -108
STL Jake Allen u27.5 -119

Nascar Thursday Night Duel Picks. The limits are not that bad relative to last weekend. Race #1 is the higher quality race. #2 is mostly new guys. My model expects Kurt Busch and Larson to just run over everyone. It helps that they're teammates. Teams work together in these duels.

Duel #1
Ryan Blaney -115 over Martin Truex Jr.
Ryan Blaney -115 over Chase Elliott
Joey Logano -115 over Denny Hamlin

Duel #2
Kyle Larson -115 over Alex Bowman
Kurt Busch -115 over Byron
Kurt Busch -115 over DiBenedetto
Ty Dillon -115 over Corey LaJoie

Getting +odds on 76ers at home this year feels like stealing. Both pregame and live.

I accidentally double-posted Carter Hutton unders which lost. It stands as included because as we all know about misclicks in this business...

Saves Daily: 5-3-2, +1.42u
Saves YTD: 20-12-5, +6.09u, 43.02u risked, +14.2% ROI

Bouwmeester T&P

Guys, great news.



According to this cryptic tweet from MGM, it appears if you simply believe in yourself, you improve your chances of winning.

I'll start.

I BELIEVE TomG will get unstuck in NHL props.

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 14-13

Closing in on expectation. Exciting times.

New Hampshire +15.5
Incarnate Word +7

Thinking about this some more, it's an argument for programming a NHL game simulator like the Markov Chain model Naj is using. It would make modeling game state adjustments a lot easier. I don't know the impact it would have on the final outcome but that's why we do the work to test it out and see. It's a big project with some big potential so let's put this on our list of things to do.

someone else i think. it was in the mid or high stakes NL forum

think he took some insane amount like 30k before disappearing. he was booking way off market bets, ran good, people paid him, then when he lost disappeared

it was one of those how did you not realize it was a scam when he was booking lines way off market for tons of money moments. maybe sports betting for a life makes it easier for us to spot scams than poker players