I suspect I'm terrible at HRR o/u but need more data. All bets from BetBuilder unless otherwise noted.

Hoskins u2.0 -114
Cano o2.0 +100 5d
C. Santana u2.0 -135
Soler u1.5 -114
Gordon u2.0 -167
E. Escobar u2.0 -135 Jazz
A. Jones u2.0 -114
Cain u2.0 -114
Yelich u2.5 -114
Braun u2.0 -114
Muncy u2.0 -125 jazz
Pollock u2.0 -114
Haniger u2.0 -108
D. Santana u2.0 -103
Encarnacion u2.0 -108
Story u2.0 -120 jazz

Talk about fading the market. Good luck rsigley!

Let's get this HRR money

L. Gurriel HRR +105 over Y. Diaz
Shin-Soo Choo -110 HRR over J. Profar
J. Pederson -120 HRR over J. Aguilar

oh whoops that was u6 +120, still getting crushed by the market tho it's 6.5 now and u100



won't matter tho because he's gonna get 0 k's

Every time we bought back line moves in past couple of days we lost. But also if we crushed opening lines we lost, so why not

Trevor Williams o4 +114
David Hess o3.5 +120
Drew Smyly o4.5 -114
Mike Fiers o4 -114
Luke Weaver o5.5 +120
Wade Miley o4.5 +110
Wade LeBlanc u3.5 +110
Drew Pomeranz u5 +127
Chad Bettis u3.5 +127

Things have been rough in the last week. Including all my ML/Totals/Horse/Basketball/Golf/Other sports I'm on my 5th losing day in a row for a whopping -$126,464 and 7th losing day out of the last 9. This has happened in the past, but it's never easy to get through. It makes you wonder why even bother do this. You have enough to live comfortably for the rest of your life, why put yourself through this? Then you remember you're not doing it for the money, you're doing it because it's all you know at this point. What else am I going to do? Sit around and watch movies all day? Make a positive contribution to society? Learn to code? Very unlikely.

I'm glad to have TomG and Fubster as emotional support in times like this.

HRR:
McCutchen -135 HRR over JT Riddle CANCELLED (Riddle DNS, McCutchen gets 8 HRR)
Villar HRR +140 over Moreland LOSS -1
B. Anderson HRR +110 over M. Franco LOSS -1
J. Abreu HRR +135 over L. Voit CANCELLED (BetBuilder didn't cancel the K's, but other books cancelled this HRR because of early end - rough as it would have been a nice +1.35)
L. Gurriel HRR +105 over Y. Diaz WIN +1.05
Shin-Soo Choo -110 HRR over J. Profar PUSH
J. Pederson -120 HRR over J. Aguilar WIN +1
Lucroy +100 HRR over Schwarber PUSH
Yesterday: 2-2-2 +0.05
Total: 54-51-18 -2.31u

TB:
Correa -120 TB over Beckham WIN +1
Judge -120 over Abreu CANCELLED (Rain)
Freeman -115 over Conforto LOSS -1.15
Joey Gallo +105 over K. Davis LOSS -1
Bryce Harper -120 over Castro WIN +1
Tatis +110 over K. Marte CANCELLED (Marte DNS)
Yesterday: 2-2 -0.15
Total: 22-21-8 -0.4u

K:
Corbin u6 +120 LOSS -1
Giolioto o4.5 -108 WIN +1
Happ o6 -114 LOSS -1.14
Rodriguez o6 -114 WIN +1
Arrieta o5.5 +114 WIN +1.14
Wheeler u5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Tyler Skaggs o5 -103 WIN +1
Cole Hamels u5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Trevor Williams o4 +114 LOSS -1
David Hess o3.5 +120 LOSS -1
Drew Smyly o4.5 -114 WIN +1
Keller u4.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Mike Fiers o4 -114 WIN +1
Luke Weaver o5.5 +120 WIN +1.2
Wade Miley o4.5 +110 LOSS -1
Wade LeBlanc u3.5 +110 LOSS -1
Drew Pomeranz u5 +127 PUSH
Chad Bettis u3.5 +127 LOSS -1
Yesterday: 7-10-1 -3.22 (buying back line moves cost us a nice 3u)
Total: 64-62-12 -0.93u (yay)

Daily: 10-9-1, -0.32u
YTD: 45-35-8, +14.23u, 102.63u risked, +13.9% ROI

do expected Ks vary over the course of a season?

i have to preface this by saying that i don't know very much about baseball and even less about betting on it (so of course i don't have the numbers myself) but i enjoy reading this thread and statistics in general.

this is most likely low-level thinking, but i imagine right now pitchers are still relatively healthy and well rested compared to later parts of the season.

(i understand if you don't want to share your insights, it was just something i was thinking about)

I have a good feeling that today we will win some and lose some

TB:
Springer -125 over D. Santana
Rizzo -130 over Bour
Freeman -115 over COnforto
S. Marte +120 over J. Soto
L. Cain -130 over J. Turner
K. Davis -120 over J. Gallo

K:
Ivan Nova o4 -114

Verlander u8 -114
Cashner o3 +127
Tyson Ross u4.5 -114
michael Pineda o5.5 -114
Blake snell u8 -114
Chris Archer u6 -114
Caleb Smith u6 -114
Zach Eflin u5.5 -115
Jason varger o4 -114
Adrian Sampson u3 -114
Felix Hernandez o3.5 -114

I haven't looked in a while but in the past strikeouts were pretty consistent with a minor bump in july and august. Something about the heat

HRR:
Villar +140 HRR over Moreland (lets try this again)

Do any of our HRR models agree with these

J. Candelario HRR +120 over CJ Cron
B. Gardner HRR -115 over W. Castillo?

Greek TB
Castro +115 over Harper
Marte +115 over Soto

Villar HRR o1.5 -120 Jazz

oh no we align on Marte, that means it's gonna lose.

J. Heyward (for some reason Jazz and 5D list him as H. Heyward) +100 over A. Simmons

they also have a nice Schwartz +100 over Pujols which would be insane, but unfortunately Pujols isn't starting

I've noticed the H. Heyward thing, I thought it was a one day error but I guess not.

Hard to win when everyone you're against manages to hit a triple. Things were looking very promising when I left the house last night and I returned to a very disappointing result of 2-3-1 -1.3. YTD 14-15-5 -2.69

Early games Villar +115 over Moreland, more to come

Kiermaeier u2.0 -114
Rendon u2.5 -114
Story u2.0 -114
Goldschmidt o2.0 -114
D. Santana u2.0 -130
Encarnacion u2.0 -130
Haniger u2.0 -130

The holy trinity, we all think Villar is gonna do good. Incoming 0-5 with 5K's

Grichuk HRR +120 over Kiermaier
L. Gurriel Jr. HRR +125 over Y. Diaz
B. Posey HRR -115 over I. Desmond
T. Story HRR -115 over B. Belt

Maybe if we buy back the K moves early on it will win

Kyle Freeland u5 -114
Wainwright u4.5 -114
Tanner Roark o5 +114
Homey Bailey u4 +110
MArco Estrada o4 +120
Zach Davies u4 -114
Buchholz u4.5 +105 (Jazz/5D)
Stratton u4.5 -125 (Jazz/5D)

S. Marte ev over Soto TB

Correa TB -125 over Beckham Jazz

Peralta u2.0 -114 BB

Turner TB +120 over Cain Greek

I'm a little worried we are looking at a 7-0 +8.05u HRR day so far. Does that mean we are going to lose every bet on the night games and we shouldn't bother?

Brian Anderson HRR -105 M. Franco
H. Ramirez HRR -115 over J. Soler (maybe switching Ramirez's will stop the 0-4 Ramirez streak)
Piscotty HRR -120 over A. Cabrera
Eric Hosmer HRR -115 over D. Peralta

TB:
Jose Ramirez -125 over W. Merrifield (why do we do this)
C. Correa -125 over M. Haniger

MU [24114] K MARTE (ARI) TOTAL BASES -120 (F TATIS (SDG) TOTAL BASES vrs K MARTE (ARI) TOTAL BASES) -120
MU [24116] J TURNER (LAD) TOTAL BASES +120 (L CAIN (MIL) TOTAL BASES vrs J TURNER (LAD) TOTAL BASES) +120
L. Cain most total bases vs. J. Turner -105

hey why not?

I'm worried, what is everyone seeing in turner over Cain? I know tomg never beat me h2h but he's against me twice today and I worry instead of growing closer together we are growing apart

I just took the 15c arb, I don’t see value one way or the other