Canadians to win opening faceoff
-120 2I

I guess I gotta find another book.

TomG, I see something of interest.

To win opening faceoff/ devils -Senators
Devils +115
Senators -135
On the list, you did great work compiling, we have
the Devils at 15
the Senators at 26

What kind is your book giving?
Any injury report we should look up?

Getting different line combos from different sources on the Devils.
One source/ themorningpuck

when I was betting NHL player matchups every day I could NEVER find a good source for reliable line info. The main ones that everyone knows are the best but they still suck and make mistakes all the time, and they seem to copy each other a lot. Twitter is good but its hard to use for real time betting and to get everything in one place.

I think its because really no one knows whos going to "start." It isnt like other sports when there are starters and bench guys. The coach decides whos going to start pretty close to game time and doesnt tell anyone and can change it anytime he wants.

CLE scores last +105 (5dimes) get some while it's hot.

I'm a total NBA noob, let me see if I understand the logic. I assume teams are intentionally fouling the poor free throw shooters near the end of the game. But even the worst guys still shoot 50% which equates to 75% chance of scoring at least once. So would a high intentional foul rate improve the other teams chance of scoring the last point? As a corollary, a low intentional foul rate would improve a team's own chance of scoring last. Is that the basic idea?

At any rate thanks for the suggestion. Time to go digging through the data!

Thanks for your input. Seems my experience has taught me the same.

We are supposed to stick to the plan(the list).
Hope TomG doesn't disown me for showing such little faith...again

In my experience leftwinglock is generally the most accurate but it's more game data driven rather than beat reporter driven so they sometimes don't account for changes until a game later

Dailyfaceoff tends to get changes done faster but doesn't show their work so to speak

anecdotally I've felt dailyfaceoff is better for sudden changes but leftwinglock is more accurate on the long term

Having said that, usually when the two disagree over longer periods of time it's because the lines themselves are very fluid - it's not out of The ordinary for coach to sometimes modify lines on the fly for better matchups

I've been considering writing a program that scrapes all the lines from beat reporter Twitter due to this issue myself because there's a few times each year when I miss out on some real value because the coach decides to shake things up and suddenly put that 4th liner onto the first line

XFL lines are up, who wants to degen this

anyone remember UFL and all the money we blindly made betting on the home team (they were like 27-2 against the spread)

All the lines are 6.5 or 5 which makes me think they don't know what they're doing either

New York Guardians +5 -110 vs Tampa Bay Vipers Risking $550.00 To Win $500.00

bet of the week lets go

Yes, and teams are usually good at getting the ball into the hands of good free throw shooters. They are probably like 95% to hit at least 1 free throw.

If anyone has a sportsbook that uses the "sports betting prime" software that 5D has (a bunch of books use this not only 5D so if you're banned there can still find it) they have an off prop

Will Trump tweet during the game. Yes is +145 and they take $381.52 (weird amount) on it.

Every other book has No at + odds so can arb or just ride dirty.

also arb on floyd mayweather biggest bet. get that $10

this book seems broken

they have Georgetown/St Johns total points -10.5 vs. Kittle Receiving yards +10.5 at +100 with a 1k max

here are some degen ones i took that they still have. seems limit is $550 (risk or to win whichever is higher)

Will Joe Buck or Troy Aikman say "favorite" - No Odds: -110
Will Joe Buck or Troy Aikman say "underdog" - No Odds: -110
Demi Lovato Length of US National Anthem - Over 2 minutes 1 second Odds: -110
Will Broadcast Mention R.Mostert Was Undrafted - No Odds: +140
Largest Wager by Floyd Mayweather - Under $ 1 Million Odds: -200
Will President Trump Tweet During the Game - Yes Odds: +145

FOs Daily: 0-1-0, -1.15u
FOs YTD: 4-11-0, -8.65u, 17.25u risked, -50.1% ROI

Yes more degen bets pls, this good at 4.5? Never watched an xfl game before.

I don't know anything about the teams but betting on Antonio Callaway can't be good. This is more of an emotional bet as I lost my virginity during the inaugural XFL game starring the NY/NJ Hitman XFL (they lost 0-19 to the Las Vegas Outlaws) at a frat party where their sister sorority dressed up as playboy bunnies. The game was on in the background in the room we used. Thank you to my dorm neighbor Evan (EvRock81 on AIM) for inviting me.

In the never ending prep for MLB season I updated this chart I posted last year.



What stood out to me:

1) Why did we bet so much more than previous years (160k with 10k roll vs. 81k in 2017 with only ~50 less games bet, it's even less than 2016 when we bet over 200 extra games). Basically every bet this year was a max bet in that subset and the other subsets ran so hot in April they were max betting by May. The edges were bigger than previous years (it might be due to the success of The Logic of Sports Betting teaching everyone how to lose at these markets?) which led to bigger bets.

2) What happened with the $1000 starting roll subset? A side effect of 1). The biggest edges led to way too big bets in May which led to a huge down swing. At the lowest it went from 2900 on May 1 to only $400 at the end of May. It slowly climbed out of the hole most of the summer and Aug 1 the roll was at 1900, but same thing. Then it just crawled through a breakeven September to book a small win.

What does this mean?

If we are over estimating our edge the limits are saving the bigger bankrolls. (not too sure about this since I personally bet these at multiple books and average ~$2200/bet and had a really good year, but also I have the bankroll to sustain those limits as well)

If we are correctly estimating our edge it could just be bad luck?

Hitting a way below EV stretch really hurts smaller bankrolls. Luckily this is something that I never had to deal with, but maybe you need to set a cap on max bet %? Even if you see a huge edge limit it to 5%? Or just sacrifice something to the Gods so you run good. Through most of June the 1k bankroll was booking a lot of wins but 3% bet size of $400 is only $12 bets, so it took a long time to crawl out whereas the bigger bankrolls were still pounding max bets and cleaning up. I'm guessing if someone really did start with a 1k bankroll they might re-load and avoid that issue.

During my annual post super bowl retreat (I usually rent a cabin in the woods from NBA all star break until mid-March to recharge and prepare for the long grind of April-Feb) I will look deeper into this, but those are my first takes.

Another thing is the average lines we were betting into were the highest ever (~+107 average vs second highest was +103) and this year we were betting more no than previous years where we tended to pound the YES

148 YES vs 386 NO

vs. 2018 where we had

458 YES and 60 NO

The unders might be a side effect of the juiced ball theory. Most of our YES's were in April and then we switched to unders in May (which coincided with the initial down swing), but from looking at the data YES was getting pounded non stop after April.

What's interesting too is these are results against the closing line. Most of my bets in May were opposite of this since I was betting opening line and hitting YES, but then it moved so much at the end from everyone betting it NO became profitable.

After June tho my personal bets seemed to align more with the closing line bets.

Before I go into a rabbit hole and waste the day on this, I just re-ran it with the 1K subset against opening lines

Wagered: $17,094
Won: $1,555
ROI: 9.09%
275-279-0 49.64%

YES: 387, NO: 167

I really think this year is an anomaly due to juiced ball theory and every team cheating with signs

Looks like you just disproved the efficient market hypothesis unless pinny just aint that sharp anymore.

How did average line movement from opening to close trend from april through post may? sounds like things didn't move much after for the 2nd half of the season

Very interesting Sigs.

re efficient market: I dont think anyone would consider this prop to be very efficient. Sigs prob pounds them into efficiency but its not like its a straight bet.

Does anyone use a practice sports betting app first? Or do you just jump right in and start betting on bovada or whatever site is easiest for you. I started putting my picks down on an excel doc to see "what if" but still doesn't feel right haha

Post plays to this thread it's a sandbox for testing out new ideas and theories

1/31 SK > Misfits is -154 on Nitrogen and -190 on Bovada, what am I missing? Are big differences in pricing like this common in other markets?

What do you sharps think about this one



I checked multiple weather sites and the high in Miami that day is only 71. Kickoff is at 6:30pm and darksky has the temp predicted to be about 64 then.

Too far out for accurate predictions? Bet is already made, should we just spend the winnings?

I'd be worried they're try to free roll you. Do they list who they use to decide these results?

national weather service i'm guessing

they also have this one:

MC Hammer say "hammer time" in Cheetos Commercial - Yes Odds: -143

the commercial is already online and he does say it

and did these too

Super Bowl LIV - Props - Joe Buck Mention His Dad Jack Buck - No Odds: -167
Total replay review predictions Pereira gets wrong - Under 1.5 Odds: -110
Will There be an Onside Kick Attempt in the Game - No Odds: +100
Will the Winning Team Visit the White House - Yes Odds: -152

i think having 10k or so in props not related to the players is degen enough. unless something else pops up

these are all still available now

What do you guys think of betting even on some of the even/odd props?

Several years ago, I had a bet no actioned cuz some TE got 0 yards, so I haven’t messed with it since.

I see a couple I like but I don’t wanna get freerolled.