Tom, I think I found the missing piece to faceoffs.



But in a serious note, why not backtest it first instead of the trial by fire? Is it not time efficient to solve when there's something active on the line?

Also, thanks for the input on golf guys. I think when I dive deep into that again I'll have go into more granular detail of the course and then weigh those different strengths correspondingly. Will probably wait until hockey season over though.

No longtime lurker of this thread. I’m just a combinatorics degenerate.

i'm dying from ebola this week but i put the energy together to do projections for you

https://pastebin.com/Ft22sEpj

last 3 weeks have run at an epic 1.03% ROI to push the season ROI down to 9.68%. We going to need a miracle to get back above 10%.

What happened after Week 15, the best of the season? Were we not humble enough and now we are being punished?

If we data mine our historical results

Week 1-3 killed (+~22%)
Week 4-6 ~-2% ROI
Week 7-9 killed (+~19%)
Week 10 worst ever (-17.77%)
Week 11-14 ~+1% ROI
Week 15 best ever (+76.64%)
Week 16-XXX ????

it appears the break even stretches happen in 3s. So by this Week 19 should kill

Potential sack props. Fair lines for the under

BAL/TEN
4.5 51.32% (-105)
5.5 68.58% (-218)

SEA/GB
4.5 49.46% (+102)
5.5 66.84% (-201)

SF/MIN
4.5 50.39% (-102)
5.5 67.71% (-210)

HOU/KC
4.5 53.21 (-114)
5.5 70.29 (-237)

Hideki Matsuyama last year lost ~4 to 5 strokes because of the course fit. Yesterday? Shot a +4

Confirmed course fit ruins my bets

There's no backtesting in science. Only experiments.

No plays today.

If anyone likes overlay there's 2 $10 Round 2 Showdowns on DK
Winner take all, $1800 to first.

One has 8 people, other has 5 (and is just titled "Ace")

Locks in 10 minutes, single entry.

Hmm I thought by law that have to have guaranteed prize pools?

All the ones I entered with overlay got canceled even though they all said "guaranteed X". Canceled about 30 contests They were all listed as GPPs

Can the DFS industry survive another scandal right now

Too bad you can't take them to court because somehow their T&C circumvent the law and say you can only do arbitration. Wonder if those would hold up in court

any nba to pay for Ebola medicine?

Glad we got Warren Sharp on board 6 weeks later

Here's some NBA Props

https://pastebin.com/qSVHGRqU

LAst night NBA props were ok but Wed night was insane. Everything hit and I also won almost everything on FD. Lets go back in time

Fading JT To make the cut easy money

Didn't even need the 50 mph winds tonight.

Yes I was dead last by a long shot at the end of day one, nobody really did anything of note for me today, simply not having JT has me back in the running though.

Bayesian statistics meets sports: a comprehensive review

New JQAS article. I'll give it a read and share my thoughts. I wanted to share in advance because I know many legit top sports bettors are avowed Bayesians while most of us Frequentists sit around sucking our thumbs trying to estimate ever-changing parameters.

Eleven game slate. Two plays.

St. Louis Blues -115 over New York Rangers
Vancouver Canucks -115 over Buffalo Sabres

I prefer the thoughts of the other tomg until you start bringing in the gifs and emojis



The irony of that tweet is lost on him... But people still pay this guy for picks somehow...

But on a serious note, I've done some sports blogging and whenever I try to get feedback about everything nobody ever comments on the content itself. They just say more gifs and keyword stuffing

BM switched it up on us and put Min/SF sacks u5, which is fair at 58.15.

There's a lot of early morning drama around the BAL/TEN game. Some people think there's going to be 97 mph winds and ten inches of rain. Others believe that's going to happen after the game. I think it's definitely influencing the market as I noticed a lot of unders being pounded in the props there. Is the steam related to the weather or does someone have lower projections than us?

The Saturday slate comes down to are you going to be a man and ignore the weather? Or you gonna sit on the sidelines because you think NFL players can't perform in 10 inches of rain and 97 mph winds?

Here's what I bet on BM:

MIN/SF u5 Sacks -115
TEN/BAL u4.5 Sacks 110
Andrews o4.5 Receptions 146
Jonnu Smith o2.5 Receptions -105
AJ Brown o3.5 Receptions -115
Rudolph u3 Receptions -115
Garoppolo u21.5 Pass complete -115
Lamar Jackson o18.5 Pass complete 135
Tannehill o19.5 Pass complete 135
Lamar Jackson o28.5 Pass attempts -115

It is normally a lonely hobby because no one wants to share anything and then when they do open up others don't comment out of fear of saying something stupid, don't know what to say, or worse of all they know but don't want to help someone else. Fortunately, we've solved that problem because in a crowdsourced syndicate the incentive is there to help each other and openly share information.

Thanks for the perspective Tom, here I was thinking everyone is just an idiot

Sigs, I believe it's this that you're referring to



Roth may be a cocky dweeb who struck out getting a real meteorologist job but the DFS community tends to take his word as gospel so I'm guessing sports betting well follow the mainstream guy and DFS will ignore it

I'm trusting my buddies at darksky who say no bad weather, but that is Ian Rappoport from the NFL Network

maybe the NFL has better weather data than everyone else

Huge day, boys. Sincerely wish you all the best of luck. I've got a lot on the the line today, if I don't make it, I want you to know that:

T'were ne'er better men I could've served with.

T'were ne'er better men I could've known.

Yeah that's where I'm struggling here, I don't see how he'd possibly be winging it so very confused in general

For these short slates I just chase overlay so not really invested in it

Got about $600 in soccer that's pretty meh so far and today there are 4 NHL slates so that's where I'm focused and will have a few k on the board which is a lot for a peon like me

Carolina is a heavy favorite tonight in NHL but on a b2b and they're pricy as hell so I'm hoping that attracts heavy ownership and fails

Glgl zplus, what you riding on?

Couple more:
Lamar Jackson u2 TD Passes -115
Lamar Jackson throw an int YES +135
Lamar Jackson u78.5 Rushing Yards -105
Tannehill o219.5 passing yards +100
Jonnu Smith o23.5 receiving yards -115
Tajae Sharp o20.5 receiving yards -115
Seth Roberts o14.5 receiving yards -115
George Kittle u79.5 receiving yards -115
Kirk Cousins o230.5 passing yards +105
Raheem Mostert u51.5 rushing yards +125

Many "professionals" get upset about people sharing, as it might make it harder for them to win using older methods. To a degree, that is right. But for the one sharing it, I've found I get much more in terms of ideas than I gave away.

The other payoff (and why many of us waste time in sports forums) is as you say it is a lonely hobby. It can be even more lonely if it is your profession, since there is not a lot of human interaction. It's easy to make money. It's much more difficult to keep anchored and stay sane.