Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 125 - Sports Betting

I know nothing about NASCAR. I assume it's basically just horse racing with different terminology (driver vs jockey for example). I'm interested if it results in more arguments about whether or not someone ran out of gas in the final lap

Quote

01-04-2020 , 02:44 PM

#3102

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Midday Games

WPG Neal Pionk Assists u0.5 -136
WPG Neal Pionk Points u0.5 -121
STL David Perron Assists u0.5 -155

MIN Matt Dumba o2.5 +140

Quote

01-04-2020 , 02:48 PM

#3103

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

The best was when Jamie McMurrays engine exploded a quarter of a mile from the finish line costing me a lot of money.

I think it's interesting because there's a lot of qualitative factors that come into play, different tracks, different rules (and now that they stopped restrictor plates should we throw out all that data?), etc.

I'll work on getting the data together this week. Then it will take a couple weeks to make a database, etc. so we can visually look at things easily.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 02:59 PM

#3104

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Found the old thread. We can start right off there

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4.../#post32239253

Quote

01-04-2020 , 03:01 PM

#3105

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

That's where I found out joking about manipulating the market by having everyone bet the other side isn't joking when everyone is going broke.

but still appreciate that people thought you could only run that bad if you're manipulating markets to bet on the other side

Quote

01-04-2020 , 03:31 PM

#3106

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Faceoffs
Vancouver -115 over New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils -115 over Colorado Avalanche
Montreal Canadiens -115 over Pittsburgh Penguins

GAPs
NYI Josh Bailey Assists o0.5 +200
TOR Morgan Rielly Assists o0.5 +145
TOR William Nylander Points u0.5 +130
PIT Evgeni Malkin Assists u0.5 +143
PIT Alex Galchenyuk Points u0.5 -153
PHI Travis Konecny Points u0.5 +111
ARI Phil Kessel Assists o0.5 +177
NSH Roman Josi Points u0.5 +155

SOGs
MTL Tomas Tatar u2.5 -139
MTL Max Domi u2.5 -126
VAN J.T. Miller o2.5 +108
NSH Matt Duchene u1.5 +146
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +147

Quote

01-04-2020 , 03:49 PM

#3107

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Damn looking back at that thread I was very confrontational and high strung in my mid 20s. How were we beating closing lines by 50-60 cents and getting crushed every week? Either we had epic run bad or the market was insanely inefficient.

RIP kaboshedx

Quote

01-04-2020 , 04:18 PM

#3108

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

reading through old threads is so weird

Quote

01-04-2020 , 04:48 PM

#3109

deltasum2

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 128

Wow I really enjoyed the idiot who thought running out of gas meant having gas left in the tank. Good stuff.

NFL props seem to be very tight not much value.

Any NBA today?

Quote

01-04-2020 , 05:45 PM

#3110

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

nba
https://pastebin.com/tT1FG1ND

anyone else do the playoff long 500k?

here's what i went with. lets get this 500k

Spoiler:

Quote

01-04-2020 , 06:47 PM

#3111

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Didn't enter the playoff $500K - gl. Do they reveal ownership %? I'd prefer Kelce/Hopkins to Hill/Fells with extra .5ppr for TE but guessing your combo has far lower ownership and it's a very top-heavy structure.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 07:08 PM

#3112

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

omg this game is hilarious, thank god I'm all over Bills teasers and h2 over 20.5.

edit: Rigged

Quote

01-04-2020 , 07:18 PM

#3113

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

yea i was thinking triple TE but then thought that might be a popular strat

and then i wondered if everyones fading lamar because they think it gives them leverage is it smart to play lamar? too much meta

Quote

01-04-2020 , 07:29 PM

#3114

deltasum2

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 128

Did you ignore Marcus Smart #s big dif between you and market.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 08:22 PM

#3115

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

nope kemba walker is out and he's dominated with him out.

maybe only bad thing is he's in a back 2 back but not like he can rest

Quote

01-04-2020 , 10:05 PM

#3116

iloveny161

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,967

Hey Sigs, are the expected receptions for each team's players supposed to add up to the QB's completions total (approximately at least, due to distribution characteristics)? I see the QBs in your sheet as higher than the sum of the WR/RB/TE totals, although that could be due to some factor I'm not accounting for, for both Tannehill and Brady markets.
Tannehill I see market ~18.5
Brady ~23 to 23.5

Last edited by iloveny161; 01-04-2020 at 10:14 PM.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:04 PM

#3117

iloveny161

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,967

ah forgot about the fringe players that get 0.5 catches a game, nvm.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:23 PM

#3118

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Jesper Fast who has taken 14 FOs all year and is 3-11 in them randomly shows up in the opening FO and beats J.T. Miller. I was researching this bet some more and found this article warning us and so did Poogs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by https://www.gtbets.eu/hockey/nhl-pro-bet.htm

Another aspect to consider here is to avoid making bets that are impossible to beat in the long run. Here's a quick example of what we mean by this:

Which Team will win the First Faceoff of the Stanley Cup Finals
New York Rangers -110
Boston Bruins -110

As you can see, there's actually a house edge in this bet. Wagering on either the Rangers or Bruins requires you to front $100 to win a $110 profit. Since this wager is more against the house, rather than other bettors, you're going to lose money in the long-run. Plus game-starting faceoffs are such a minuscule part of hockey, and it's hard to do enough quality research to overcome the house edge.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:29 PM

#3119

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

marcus smart is the worst apparently

they should. i had some issues with brady earlier in the week where it was projecting more pass completes for him than receptions.

2 of them were going to fullbacks which usually don't make the pastebin and tight ends which weren't there either. i filter the pastebin export to show people with a certain amount of min receptions since you won't see lines on people who are expected to get 1-2 receptions.

on my end i usually filter those guys out too so that is where the discrepancy was.

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:35 PM

#3120

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

How can you expect world-class athletes to play well two nights in a row in a game they've excelled at their whole life, sigs? How??

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:40 PM

#3121

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

are tip offs in NBA easier to beat? The dude from Uncut Gems was crushing them

Quote

01-04-2020 , 11:59 PM

#3122

iloveny161

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,967

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

smart still emotional from last night when he thought trae pushed him. smh

thanks for the explanation, makes sense!

Quote

01-05-2020 , 12:02 AM

#3123

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

it might work out

i have 3 pats receivers under and brady over 22.5 complete

Quote

01-05-2020 , 12:07 AM

#3124

iloveny161

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,967

same here. such mixed emotions on that drop by jules

Quote

01-05-2020 , 12:27 AM

#3125

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

nice i was tied for 1st with 2 people in the showdown in multiple tournaments and that titans D went from +185k to -600

and no brady over. and marcus smart. worst emotional day

Quote

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