What was the limit??


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GAPs Daily: 4-11-0, -6.75u
GAPs YTD: 65-57-1, +19.12u, 148.74u risked, +12.9% ROI

SOGs Daily: 7-3-0, +4.1u
SOGs YTD: 204-200-1, -8.35u, 483.52u risked, -1.7% ROI

lets start the new year off right

jan 1 nba

https://pastebin.com/NnT2KUHh

Sentry Tournament Win Probabilities

https://pastebin.com/ESXEXZmk

For the first time ever I have a book that offers "Top 5" bets. In the past I've only bet head to head matchups and to win. One thing to be careful is check if your book has a dead heat rule (if two people tie the stake gets split). This one apparently doesn't. Here's what I got with corresponding unit sizes.

To win:
John Rahm +500 0.7u
Corey Conners +4500 0.4u
Dylan Fritteli +6600 0.4u
JT Poston +6600 0.1u
Sebastian Munoz +6600 0.1u
Ryan Palmer +8000 0.3u
Keith Mitchell +10000 0.1u
Lanto Griffin +10000 0.2u

Top 5: (no dead heat rule)
JT Poston +900 1u
Ryan Palmer +1000 1.1u
Sebastian Munoz +1000 1.5u
Lanto Griffin +1400 1.2u
Sung Kang +1600 0.45u
Dylan Frittelli +850 1.35u
Paul Casey +350 1.3u
Corey Conners +700 2.15u

I seem to like Corey Conners more than the market. Hope we are correct!

GAPs
NSH Calle Jarnkrok Points u0.5 -149
DAL John Klingberg Assists o0.5 +189

SOGs
DAL Alexander Radulov u2.5 -130

Looks like both BOL and Bovada are offering top 5 bets. I don't have a 5dimes account any more, but they used to offer a lot of stuff like this also.

A lot of bookmakers resist offering this because it is a little trickier to automate price moves. On a spread bet, major books might put a player on a 50% automove, and a limit bet moves the price 50% of the vigorish spread (e.g., 10 cents on a 20 cent line).

It's trickier to automatically move lines on multi-winner markets.

My model also loves the hell out of Corey Connors now than the market, I'm unable to tell if it's unrealized EV due to variance or simply that I overweighted some data like SG that makes Connors appear more successful than he should

On the road right now and laptop crashed so unable to run it for this contest.

By any chance are you historically high on Chez Reavie as well? My model loved the hell out of him as well.

JFC, "Rick run good" someone who doesn't even play DFS or do sports betting but decided to become a tout is now the betting and DFS golf correspondent for CBS...

When I first started model building a was looking on YouTube to see what others did and came across his "how to build a model" video. It was shockingly apparent that he had absolutely no idea what he was doing and clearly didn't actually use these models as he claimed (tons of manually adjusted things that could have been automated or simply didn't matter that would require someone running their baseball model daily to spend 3 hours each day just pulling data and formatting it... I even messaged him about it in a very friendly but inquisitive manner because I wanted to understand why someone would teach others something he didn't even do himself and he was unsurprisingly hostile but admitted he didn't actually play himself and had no idea how I was able to figure it out.

My god that is depressing that someone who utterly knows so little is now going to be put in front of the camera by CBS.

Perhaps it's good for us if majority of people are going to be taking advice from an unknown absolute idiot? Either way, it still depresses the hell out of me.

I came across this site from listening to the latest Business of Betting Podcast

https://www.inpredictable.com/

There are a lot of great ideas for the research and development of new betting angles. If you're not reading these articles and thinking about ways to exploit these angles then really what are you doing here? Let's make it a great year.

Yeah, it's good for the rest of us like people taking stock advice and buying books from the Motley Fool clowns.

There was a very good book on golf betting:
https://www.amazon.com/Every-Shot-Co..._at_pdctrvw_dp

that said, I'd be afraid to do much on golf unless I had the positional data for each course, and the player's actual xy data for each shot relative to the course.

My group has won small on golf, mainly betting underpriced long-shots. using other peoples' projections... But very small; not enough to convince me its more than variance.

Does anyone know historically in the NBA what % of games that go Under also go Under H1? [Or the reverse]

n = 15273

Percent games 1H that went under: 50.92%
Percent games that FG went under given that 1H went under: 75.95%

Percent game 1H that went over: 49.08%
Percent games that FG went over given that 1H went over: 67.26%

A clean sheet to start the year. Congrats to all.

GAPs Daily: 2-0-0, +2.89u
GAPs YTD: 67-57-1, +22.01u, 151.23u risked, +16.5% ROI

SOGs Daily: 1-0-0, +1.0u
SOGs YTD: 205-200-1, -7.35u, 484.82u risked, -1.5% ROI

2H goes under given the 1H goes under: 52.53%
2H goes over given the 1H goes over: 47.02%

btw how sick was Howard Ratner

parlaying who wins the tip off. Sports gambling legend

Do you have 1Q/FG %

Many years ago, I looked at NCAAB pace, first half by second half. There were spots where you had a high first half pace with low scoring, so it looked like an average first half, but the efficiency would revert to expectation more than the pace. So in those weird matches that looked average, there was some good plays just betting that the direction of pace would continue.

Edit: I looked at this in NBA also, and pace above/below projection was definitely predictive.

1Q under 52.74%
fg under given 1q under 68.73%
fg over given 1q over 63.98%

Given Q1 pace over projection by 10%, how does Q2-4 live total go (You'll get close using game total - Q1 total for that projection).

How does Vucevic only have 5 boards with Isaac and Gordon both out.

clutch let down spot

wizards give up the most rebounds to centers in the league
half the team out so increased minutes

he's up to 10 now, only need 2 more for that o11.5. Big worry is that he just rests since they're up by 17. Hopefully he'll come in now off that time out and play until ~3 minutes left?

2:49

Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound (12)

easy game

worse beat is gonna be this Wisconsin 2H ML at -115. Oregon has 0 yards of offense but somehow has 14 points because of fumbles

Pretty amazing cover up by 22 with 3:50 left and left him in there for that one more rebound.

These teams think most fumbles wins the game or something

You needed to identify which QB wanted it more: and as Herby said, Justin Herbert does because he's from Eugene, home of U. Oregon.

ez game, can't believe I'm not a commentator yet.