if possible only players who didn't get PH for. doesn't need to be a full season, just a few months of games should be plenty. i just want some game logs by player to get an idea for the distribution of the stats

Moncada ninth inning push ... hrr unbeatable I think


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and i guess including 1b, 2b, 3b, bb all the usual box score stats would be useful

I'll get a sample tomorrow (easier to do on computer than iPad) for a couple days and if it looks good i'll export as much as you need.

I really thought we were finally going to take down Mancini after Khris Davis HR but he answered with a HR of his own. How can we stop this guy

We can’t stop him


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mancini going down today

Gotta call in this guy it's our only hope.

A homer can't redeem him from the onslaught of 14 bases from Davis. DNRS wins again

took 9 total bases from k.davis to beat mancini but we did it guys.

already crowdsourced some data for HRR so no need to write that script tomorrow. i'll be in the lab if anyone needs me.

so i think the issue is that because the data is so skewed (lowest you can have is 0 HRR but the upper limit is khris davis) that the mean average is always going to be greater than the median. so when i project a mean average HRR of 2.5, the odds of it going over a betting line of 2.5 is under 50%.

This was due, but why so quickly after a great day? What is sad too is I kept track of HRR bets I would have made for heads up and we would have went 6-1 +5u lol (with Andrus over Ahmed pending). It's our fault for not believing. Having a strong conviction in your model is one of the key attributes. If we didn't add on 3 losers at the end buying back some of the steam we could have had a small loss day. But we could have also left money on the board. Fitting false narratives to make yourself feel better theory

4/10:
Total Bases:
Jose Ramirez -115 over Castellanos (let's go 0-4 betting on Ramirez) ** PUSH
Manuel Machado -115 over Brandon Belt CANCELLED (Belt DNS, he was scared Machado was going to hit a HR)
Gary Sanchez -110 over Yuli Gurriel CANCELLED (Sanchez DNS)
Bryce Harper -115 over Soto LOSS -1.15
Aaron "My name is" Judge -105 over Springer PUSH
K. Davis -115 over Trey Mancini WIN +1
Yesterday: 1-1-2 -0.15
Total: 19-19-6 -1.25u

K:
R. Lopez o5.5 +114, I have fair as -109, LOSS -1 (frustrating, 0-2 on so many people with 5k's and then gives up HR's, kept slipping on the mound due to the rain)
Bauer u8 -114, I have fair as -208 (if you only have other books, some places have u7.5 +120 which is good. I have u7.5 as -117) WIN +1 (u7.5 would have won too)
Glasnow o6.5 -114, I have fair as -138 WIN +1
Boyd u6 -114, I have fair as -208 PUSH
Strailey o4 -114 (fair -165) LOSS -1.14
PIvetta u6 -114 (fair -273) PUSH
Mahle u5.5 +110 (fair -112) LOSS -1
T. Richards u5 -114 (fair -236) LOSS -1.14
McHugh o7 +120 (fair +104) WIN +1.2
Hellickson u4 -114 (fair -219) LOSS -1.14
Lyles u4.5 -114 (fair -143) LOSS -1.14
Syndergaard u6.5 -108 (fair: -144) LOSS -1.08
Paxton u6.5 -114 (fair -189) WIN +1
Flaherty u6 -114 (fair -203) LOSS -1.14
Yu Darvish u6 -114 (fair -378) WIN +1
Maeda o6 +110 (fair -124) LOSS -1
Lynn u5 -114 (fair -236) LOSS -1.14
Woodruff u5 -114 (Fair: -305 so bad CLEARLY) LOSS -1.14
Pena u5.5 -114 (-149) WIN +1
Yesterday: 6-11-2 -5.86 (womp womp)
Total: 52-44-9 +6.27u

I dunno if anyone likes golf, but I'm on these tomorrow.

Masters Round 1 Bets

Cameron Smith +0.5 +130 over Rickie Fowler
Haotong Li +0.5 +140 over Tiger Tiger Woods Y'all
Brooks Keopka -0.5 +100 over Jordan Spieth
Justin THomas -0.5 -112 over Phil Mickelson
Bryson DeChambeau +0.5 -111 over Jason Day
Webb Simpson -0.5 +104 over Patrick Reed
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +0.5 -104 over Kevin Kisner (I bet this a bunch all over Vegas and the line keeps getting better, so we might be wrong here)
Paul Casey -0.5 +105 over Spieth
Danny Willett +0.5 +111 over Snedeker
Eddie Pepperall +0.5 +130 over Charles Howell III
Patrick Cantlay +0.5 -130 over Bubba Watson
Matt Wallance -0.5 -104 over Bernhard Langer

4-1-1 +2.85 with the only loser being the hotly contested Mancini vs Davis. The only two nonwinners were the ones where I pinched my nose before betting. Maybe an indicator that I need to redo some of my work, especially considering how much I'd be down vs DNRS if he were running book.

YTD 11-11-3 -1.24

Daily: 2-0-0, +2.0u
YTD: 30-19-5, +17.55u, 63.37u risked, +27.7% ROI

productive time in the lab yesterday i hope to have hrr model up and running today. we may actually bet our first under

As Andrus got a hit to win making me a theoretical 7-1 on the day, I pondered - was I wrong in stopping? It was only a couple HRR H2H days, maybe what I was seeing was just variance?

While people last night were staring at the photo of the black hole filled with amazement, I was instead staring at TomG's right skewed graph. I dedicated a monitor in my lab just to that photo. I assumed it was also like that with my initial modeling years back and it makes sense why, but was I doing something wrong?

So I ran the analysis on my past data from 2014-2018 with a $250 max bet. Decent 3.8% ROI, not bad. But then I decided, what if I could bet unlimited on it, and it went crazy. -12.9% ROI. What was going on? 4 hours later it appears that my model was overvaluing a certain subset of players which was leading to huge edges that didn't really exist (and while with a $250 limit, the damage is contained making the model appear to be good, with those constraints removed we were making insanely huge bets that were losing). Takeaway: Focus more on just the ROI and $$.

This seems to be the time to go to sleep, but no. I pulled out my old graduate school statistics notes and tried to see if anything could help me. 6 hours later a new model has emerged. I'm going to focus on H2H HRR props for now and keep track of the individual players (good thing TomG is takign care of that) for a couple weeks to see what's happening (the only data I have on o/u is what 5D posts but it's almost always o/u 2.5). Let's get this money boys, we running on 0 sleep today.

Total Bases:
Bellinger -120 over Goldschmidt
Acuna Jr -115 over COnforto
Betts -145 over Drury

it's really not a fair fight. bookmakers try to crowdsource by copying others lines and moving on others action but it's not the same as the crowdsourcing ability we have here. really tremendous dedication and work by all.

simulations finished running overnight and we'll begin using them for our new hrr model today.

I don't see many super off lines like yesterday except for Bieber. Maybe that is good since yesterday they were insanely off and we ended up down.

Pablo Lopez o4 -114
Sonny Gray o6 +110
Dylan Bundy o5.5 -114
Aaron Brooks o4 -114
Jorge Lopez o4 -114
Walker Buehler o6 -114
Justin Bieber u6.5 -114 (GOT EM)

The one's that are off the most are the Lopez twins and Bieber. Lot of overs today hmmm

Lost 5k and got my limits cut in half yesterday. Betbuilder slash and also bookmaker slashed K prop in half


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Lets kick this off with the same bet that made me think maybe the model has issues

Granderson +105 HRR over Peraza

We still in this luckily

Nathan Eovaldi o5 -114
Aaron Sanchez u4 -114
Matz u4.5 -114
Gausman u5.5 -114
Musgrove u5 -114
Samardzija u5 -114
Jon Gray u6 -114

Mancini +125 HRR over Laureano (This has to be a trap)

early total bases https://pastebin.com/KY2TJ1cY

My model like Mancini over Davis again today but I am not playing it until I redo some of my work

I didn't see any value in either side of that match up. Maybe I'm starting to respect Mancini