xmas nba:

https://pastebin.com/DebiuBu7

BM posted props for every game, bet some (below), and then they took them down. Wonder why

Cauley Stein u6.5 Rebounds 105
PJ tucker u7.5 Rebounds -135
westbrook o7.5 Rebounds -135
harden u5.5 Rebounds -115
Russell o6.5 Assists 120
Green o5.5 Assists 120
Westbrook u8.5 Assists -115
Harden u7.5 Assists 100
Simmons u8.5 Assists -125
Lowry o5.5 Rebounds 110
Jaylen Brown o6.5 Rebounds -120

You should definitely get in touch with sixfour, he's built his own database and has had enough success with darts that fat & blokes capital has basically given him carte blanche

Merry Christmas everyone

BM NBA Props back up and they posted the Lakers game. Lets ruin Christmas in Costa Rica

These also look good

McGee u6 Rebounds -115
Davis u10.5 Rebounds -105
Harrell u6.5 Rebounds 102
Zubac o5 Rebounds -120
Lou Williams u5.5 Assists -105

Here's what I got
Rebounds

Hayword o4.5 -144
Giannis o11.5 -134
Westbrook o7.5 -144
Green o5.5 -146
Harell u7.5 -144
Davis u10.5 -112
Barton o6.5 -122
Milsap o5.5 -134

Assists

Hayword o3.5 -118
Giannis o5.5 +100
Harris u3.5 -154
Harden u7.5 +110
Ball u5.5 -150

GL today

Merry Christmas, all

damn we getting SMOKED

gonna have to win out

Stuck too. Hopefully Will Barton can salvage some of the day for me.

Merry Christmas, all!

I'm in NJ at the DRAFTKINGS sportsbook and they're offering Ravens to win the Super Bowl at +725 when everyone else has it +200 or so

What do they know that we don't?

There might be a max $100 bet they do these odd boosts things every now and then but you can't get a lot down.

It's also +225 on their app, so it's probably just a promo to get people to go there.

What has everyone been working on over the NHL Christmas break? I'll be honest, I thought about giving up and missed a few days but this thing is larger than just what I want.

GAPs
PIT Evgeni Malkin Assists u0.5 +130
NYR Ryan Strome Assists u0.5 -149
NYR Ryan Strome Points u0.5 +114
NYR Pavel Buchnevich Points u0.5 -150
TOR Morgan Rielly Assists o0.5 +123
TOR Mitchell Marner Assists u0.5 +157
MTL Phillip Danault Points u0.5 +110
TBL Alex Killorn Points u0.5 +107
DAL John Klingberg Assists o0.5 +178
DAL John Klingberg Points o0.5 +143
COL Mikko Rantanen Points u0.5 +143
VAN Alexander Edler Assists o0.5 +184

SOGs
TOR Auston Matthews o3.5 -111
TOR Morgan Rielly o2.5 +103
VGK Max Pacioretty o3.5 +104

Ended up with +470 on Sherrock who was up 2-1 but lost. Good value.

Gerwen easily won 4-0 as suspected and as he should have.

college sports

crush closing lines by multiple points

result:



gotta love it

I made decent progress on my LoL model, its pretty accurate and has a decent log loss, I need to do some backtesting to see if its theoretically profitable at all but I'm optimistic for my first dive into this stuff.

Also how owned is FLA 1 gonna be tonight jfc

I’ve been practicing hitting miracle middles.

Today we had kentucky -6, Louisville+7.5 (Halftime bets).
I usually don’t sweat them, but this seemed like a good game and this bet was kinda dead anyway. So I turn the TV on hoping for a 2nd OT or some other miracle.



I guess I need to keep practicing.

SOGs Daily: 3-0-0, +3.07u
SOGs YTD: 196-197-1, -13.45u, 469.53u risked, -2.9% ROI

GAPs Daily: 5-7-0, -0.01u
GAPs YTD: 51-36-1, +23.50u, 109.13u risked, +21.5% ROI

NFL PRops 12/29
https://pastebin.com/c23gbiuV

It's missing the SF/SEA game. Will add later.

Not much out there, mostly on the games that mean something. Maybe BM will post some tomorrow.

Here's what I found:

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions -115
Amendola o4 Receptions 100
John Ross o2.5 Receptions -115
Julio Jones u7.5 Receptions -115
Mike Williams u3.5 Receptions -115
Kelce u5.5 Receptions 110
Tannehill o20.5 Pass complete -115
Slayton u3.5 Receptions -115
Tate u4 Receptions 100
Wentz u23.5 Pass complete -115

Made an epic comeback on college sports to win $103 thanks to UC Irving covering 2H spread and under and Ohio St 1H spread and 2H under. Nothing like a 12-hour work day for min wage.

Are you excited for the championship or no

co founder of fantasylabs part of the great sports betting syndicate of the action network doesn't know the difference between an arbitrage and middle. and that 42/43 are worth nothing making it a bad middle

lol action network

lets get this Clemson money cody

If you find props for all games some I would avoid:

Chiefs game - can only get move up in playoffs if Pats lose. Reid rests his plays all the time. I think they're only gonna play one half.

Saints - same reason with Packers. Payton said starters will play but if the Packers are up a lot at half who knows

Rams - say they're not resting their starters but who knows. McVay always lies.

Ravens and Texans - resting everyone

Bills - starters are only playing a quarter or two.

Well. In his defense, he’s recommending o41 with u43.5 which probably does have value.

In today’s game with more 2 pt conversions and missed XPs, I’ve always assumed every number is at least 1-2%.

I’m sure your methodology for push %s is more advanced than that though.

-0.58% middle IMO

He's pretty transparent about not really knowing the higher level stuff.

At the risk of fluffing a group who are already going a great job fluffing themselves already, I very much consider DFS the junior varsity team compared to actual prop betting.

Most of the top DFS guys are just modifying public projections and don't really understand the math at a high level. Those who do aren't tweeting about it

Seems like a solid guy but I think his real key to success was getting in early when edges were huge. He rarely plays on Yahoo and almost never posts h2hs anymore there but I have a positive ROI vs him in a limited sample. Really wish I embraced DFS back in 2012 instead of just commenting "lol that rake is unsustainable" never realized how big the edges were back then

Not to sound like a dick but most of the "top minds" of DFS went to a very bad university if any at all... that in itself means nothing on an individual basis but when dealing with a large population is pretty indicative the thought leaders of the industry don't have the most advanced thought - most of the podcasts/articles they write are juvenile at best - this was a huge justification I used for embracing it a bit more and suck on that teet while it still existed before transitioning to props

This is also why I was really looking forward to a trip report from Sig's live final because I wanted to see what you thought of the general player pool

Why would someone spend a bunch of time on twitter rambling about doing a thing in lieu of actually doing a thing?

If you were doing novel research on a subject, why would you just chunk it out for everyone for free? Isn't this why people become academics, so they can do halfass research and suck at it?

GAPs
STL David Perron Goals o0.5 +212
CBJ Gustav Nyquist Assists o0.5 +136
CBJ Seth Jones Assists o0.5 +130
CBJ Seth Jones Points o0.5 -112
CBJ Zach Werenski Points o0.5 -117
CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois Goals o0.5 +260
CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois Points o0.5 -128
OTT Chris Tierney Assists o0.5 +187
OTT Anthony Duclair Goals o0.5 +194
OTT Thomas Chabot Assists o0.5 +104
MTL Jeff Petry Assists o0.5 +166
FLA Jonathan Huberdeau Assists o0.5 -103
NYI Jordan Eberle Assists u0.5 -212
NYI Jordan Eberle Points u0.5 -113
MIN Matt Dumba Points u0.5 -142
TBL Alex Killorn Assists u0.5 -139
TBL Alex Killorn Points u0.5 +140

SOGs
OTT Connor Brown u2.5 -136