the price went up a bit today maybe they wanted to lock in again at the higher price

SOGs Daily: 4-1-0, +3.66u
SOGs YTD: 180-183-1, -16.87u, 436.71u risked, -3.9% ROI

nba props killed today more than they were bad yesterday

we did it guys

can't believe there's no more thursday night football.

Your model spit out the edge on eache bet?

If so, why dont you shave it off those tiny edges and see how that goes? Lets say, i only bet it if i have more than 1% of edge or something.

Def killed player rebounds ty!

In your experience when a line is really really off and there's no player news has your model come out ahead or is that a warning flag to reassess.

nba dec 19

https://pastebin.com/sPUqjfYR

it depends. Some examples:

I think every day they're playing I've bet Shia Gilgeous-Alexander and Steven Adams over rebounds. Might seem weird betting two people on the same team over every day, but I feel both are really undervalued by the market so I'm okay betting them (and it's been very profitable). And some are being overrated like Harden and Westbrook I feel ok clicking under on those all the time.

Versus someone like Will Barton where he projects well but for some reason his usage rate is super inconsistent. I adjust usage rate for things like turnovers, but why some nights is he only in the low teens for usage and others mid-20's? He's getting roughly the same amount of minutes and there hasn't been any role change due to someone coming back from an injury.

I tend to never bet at GSW or Brooklyn Nets just because their teams are a disaster. Usually D'Angelo Russell and Draymond Green pop up as over bets, but either they're injured and not saying or they've both really given up for the season because they consistently underperform. Dinwiddle on Brooklyn is the only person I trust will meet his projections.

There's also injury scenarios. Yesterday based on all the news about Gordon Hayward I felt okay betting over on every Celtic, but not for Dallas spread and it worked out great. Also, I really thought Towns would sit so I felt confident on Minnesota overs and NO spread but only Wiggins did anything. If the injury could go either way and it's a key player I'll just wait until the news is announced, re-run my model for the game without the person if they're out, and then bet if there's still anything available.

Long term injuries are important too. Like Heilds role was super increased the last two weeks or so due to injuries and I felt fine about all the overs my model suggested (and he dominated).

So I have some "consistent" metric I use and someone like Will Barton I might only bet 2-3 times, versus people I think are more consistent I'll bet as many times as I can find.

We got a DOMINICAN RSIF



Estrellas Orientales vrs Gigantes del Cibao Score in the First Inning - Yes -101 - ( ACTION )

Good until -111

YTD: 3-4 -0.35u on 7.01u risked

LAK Alex Iafallo u1.5 +122
BUF Brandon Montour u1.5 +133
BOS Patrice Bergeron o3.5 +127
BOS David Pastrnak o3.5 -110
WPG Blake Wheeler o2.5 -109
WPG Kyle Connor o3.5 +130
CAR Dougie Hamilton o3.5 +127
CGY Noah Hanifin u1.5 +131
ARI Taylor Hall o2.5 -169
VGK Max Pacioretty o3.5 +101

imagine saying this out loud and calling yourself a basketball analyst

https://twitter.com/VSiNLive/status/1207736104092344321

to be fair it sounds plausible and it's much harder to test than something like "avery johnson coached a certain way in the second half in the 20xx season"

pay that man his tout money.

Almost like an anti-wounded tiger theory

+131 on BM now. Someone knows something we don't I guess.

the double whammy angle,thats it ... thats all you need to be an originator in NBA

They know that the game started two hours early to avoid rain since it's the last game of the season and bookmaker doesn't. It's already the top of the 6th.

Unless they're playing two games and this is a make up of a suspended game from 12/15? I don't know spanish and it's hard to find info

According to this tweet

https://twitter.com/Gigantes_Cibao/s...69629407170562

the game starts at 5pm AST which is 1pm pacific. Since it's 2:48pm pacific I'm guessing BM just had the wrong starting time, doesn't realize it, and people took shots. Surprised they didn't attack the o/u 9 since it's the 7th and 0-0 but I guess no score is guaranteed win.

If you bet after the game started I'd contact support.

been slacking on nhl dfs. here's our rosters for all major sites

FanDuel
G Andrei Vasilevskiy
C Pierre-Luc Dubois
C Mark Scheifele
W Anthony Duclair
W Oliver Bjorkstrand
W Nikolaj Ehlers
W Kyle Connor
D Ryan Ellis
D Roman Josi

DraftKings
G Andrei Vasilevskiy
C Casey Cizikas
C Blake Wheeler
W Nikolaj Ehlers
W Filip Forsberg
W Kyle Connor
D Josh Morrissey
D Ryan Ellis
Flex Roman Josi

Yahoo
G Jacob Markstrom
G Andrei Vasilevskiy
C Mark Scheifele
C Blake Wheeler
W Cam Atkinson
W Kyle Connor
W Nick Foligno
D Neal Pionk
D Roman Josi

FantasyDraft
G Minnesota Wild
C Blake Wheeler
C Nathan MacKinnon
W Nikolaj Ehlers
W Filip Forsberg
D Josh Morrissey
Flex Roman Josi
Flex Kyle Connor

lets get it tomg



i entered into the $250 live tourney satellite. if we win i'll +1 you and split it 50/50

Didn't get the NHL lineup in time, but used Sigley's Middleton + Tucker NBA lineup for $50 worth of double ups and a single entry tourney. Sushi for lunch tomorrow is potentially in the cards.

thats my "cash lineup", the other four are tourney ones (with the same entry fee)

i usually just the cash lineup into double ups + h2h.

lets cash that $222 tourney after getting destroyed last night in the $888. Whiteside gets 22 rebounds and still only scores like 40

ignore the NFL those are dummy line ups. Was worried the $1500 was gonna fill, so just made 10 lineups for it and think 5 people have registered since i did it on Monday

looks like we are the only one who drafted vasilevskiy (1.3% owned in 80 person qualifier)

and he's currently at -1.4 points. if he turns it around tho we got leverage over everyone!

looks like Cizikas only 1.3% too. Contrarian lineup

Ah okay thanks. I pivoted my $12 tourney entry into the Reddish one. Haven't played NBA DFS since 2016 (got crushed), looking forward to the sweat.

in the big double ups Mitchell 50% owned, Gobert 36, Reddish 48, Ingles 24%

we are all chalk today iloveny161

woot woot

who knew duke players could ball like this

looks like we need to fade Giannis. big chalk in every tournament and double ups

he gets a nice foul a couple minutes into the game.

what happened to allie laforce

good good middleton, keep grabbing those rebounds from giannis