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Old 12-17-2019, 05:40 AM   #2751
lvr
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

automation seems to be the key
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Old 12-17-2019, 12:27 PM   #2752
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

lets run as good as TomG has

or like we did last week. no steven adams to bail us out today

nba dec 17

https://pastebin.com/NJ6TTZQh
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Old 12-17-2019, 01:18 PM   #2753
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

XFL will start Feb. 8, 2020. I wonder how much betting action/lines will be on that.
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Old 12-17-2019, 01:33 PM   #2754
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

SOGs
PHI Claude Giroux u2.5 +136
ANA Ryan Getzlaf u2.5 -183
BOS Brad Marchand u2.5 -115
BOS Jake DeBrusk u2.5 -147
TOR Morgan Rielly o2.5 +116

GAPs
BOS Patrice Bergeron Assists u0.5 -116
BOS Jake DeBrusk Points u0.5 -109
NSH Roman Josi Assists u0.5 -119
NSH Roman Josi Points u0.5 +128
BUF Jack Eichel Assists u0.5 +111
BUF Jack Eichel Points u1.5 -200
BUF Victor Olofsson Assists u0.5 -190
TOR John Tavares Assists u0.5 -125
TOR Morgan Rielly Assists o0.5 +128
TOR Mitchell Marner Points u1.5 -199
OTT Jean-Gabriel Pageau Points u0.5 -125
TBL Steven Stamkos Assists o0.5 +123
TBL Steven Stamkos Points o0.5 -205
TBL Brayden Point Assists o0.5 +154
TBL Brayden Point Points o0.5 -162
CBJ Gustav Nyquist Assists o0.5 +171
CBJ Gustav Nyquist Points o0.5 -109
CBJ Cam Atkinson Goals o0.5 +221
CBJ Cam Atkinson Points o0.5 -125
CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand Points o0.5 -101
CBJ Seth Jones Assists o0.5 +153
CBJ Seth Jones Points o0.5 +102
CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois Assists o0.5 +205
CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois Points o0.5 -110
DET Robby Fabbri Points u0.5 -145

This is just the first half of games. Can Pinnacle really be this off on GAPs or am I missing something? We'll find out soon.
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Old 12-17-2019, 01:36 PM   #2755
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I dunno man youre def better than me at this but if/when I get overs for an entire team I usually tread pretty lightly if im treading at all
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Old 12-17-2019, 10:06 PM   #2756
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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I dunno man youre def better than me at this but if/when I get overs for an entire team I usually tread pretty lightly if im treading at all
In a vacuum I'd agree but should take another look at the state of Detroit's hockey team
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Old 12-17-2019, 10:07 PM   #2757
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

TomG I notice there's a lot of correlation in those props. Does your model account for this?
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Old 12-17-2019, 11:36 PM   #2758
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:
SOGs Daily: 1-4-0, -4.09u
SOGs YTD: 176-182-1, -20.53u, 431.15u risked, -4.8% ROI

Spoiler:
GAPs Daily: 19-6-0, +15.39u
GAPs YTD: 46-29-1, +23.51u, 96.14u risked, +24.5% ROI
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:50 AM   #2759
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Looks like a good day man, gz
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:09 PM   #2760
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

yesterday was pretty bad ROI% wise. luckily we didn't have much volume but still got crushed worse than the books TomG was betting at. Which is odd because we did really good on halfs, quarters, and full games. Shouldn't those things be related?

Can we turn it around?

https://pastebin.com/69g83c8g
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:55 PM   #2761
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
yesterday was pretty bad ROI% wise. luckily we didn't have much volume but still got crushed worse than the books TomG was betting at. Which is odd because we did really good on halfs, quarters, and full games. Shouldn't those things be related?

Can we turn it around?

https://pastebin.com/69g83c8g
Speaking from personal experience, sometimes the worst player on the team manages to score the goals.
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Old 12-18-2019, 01:05 PM   #2762
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

lol TomG wrecks me in hockey yet again
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:00 PM   #2763
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'm not happy with how I'm doing SOGs. Something isn't right. I'm doing the standard approach--create my own projection system for seasonal stats, use that as a baseline, and adjust that for the day's matchup. I'm happy with my baseline projections but I don't think my adjustments are right. I've tried a few things and none of them seem to work.

Home/Away splits with back-to-backs factored in
Opposing Team Corsi Against / League Avg
Opposing Team Shots Against / League Avg
(Opposing Team Shots Against / Opposing Team Corsi Against) / League Avg

Any other ideas? As someone who knows nothing about hockey, what does it mean for a team to be "good at defense?" I guess we could actually test some ideas but I've always been a guess-n-check kind of guy (hence me fumbling around in this thread).
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:15 PM   #2764
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For example, are the NY Rangers "good at defense"? They allow a **** ton of Corsi events. The most in the league actually and they have a horrible CF%. But they are pretty good (lucky?) at preventing those Corsi events from being on goal. And they aren't giving up that many actual goals which make me think they are purposely allowing teams to take lower quality shots? Or is that not a thing since they then risk getting scored on by higher quality rebound shots? Explain this game to me.
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:21 PM   #2765
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

what do you bros think about the 8 dog in the 4th race at Orange Park Matinee?

Its legs look so beastly and it's 99/1

edit: put $10 on it and the price went down to 12/1. there's only $170 in the win pool at post time. RIP dog racing. also big on the 2/8 exacta (aka $5)
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:26 PM   #2766
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

damn 8 was there the whole time in 2nd but faded late

all muscles no cardio

2/4/8/1, close to exacta

wow 2/4/8 trifecta paid $151. maybe we should focus on that
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:28 PM   #2767
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

TomG,

I alluded to this earlier about xG and how this also exists in basketball. However, I just got trolling by some derp.

Basically if you're not adjusting for shot quality and shooter quality, you're prob at a very basic level.

Here are some thoughts:

1) Do you median scores actually equal the game total? If not you should consider fitting to this.
2) Consider if teams allow certain players to score more or less than others. Similar to how DVOA considers how teams scheme against certain offensive players that can help you understand how good they are against relative types of shooters.
3) Look at line play, and see if different lines perform relatively different than the overall team.

Hope this gives you some food for thought!
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:37 PM   #2768
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Wonder what the correlation is on Corsi.

https://www.icydata.hockey/team_stats/27
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:42 PM   #2769
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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For example, are the NY Rangers "good at defense"? They allow a **** ton of Corsi events. The most in the league actually and they have a horrible CF%. But they are pretty good (lucky?) at preventing those Corsi events from being on goal. And they aren't giving up that many actual goals which make me think they are purposely allowing teams to take lower quality shots? Or is that not a thing since they then risk getting scored on by higher quality rebound shots? Explain this game to me.
without looking it up I think I remember NYR specifically under torterella always allowing a ton of shots and shot attempts but usually having abnormally low shooting% against. Accounting for "shooting skill" in hockey was always kind of a problem, team and player wise. Is it strategy to allow more low quality shots? Is it because of Lundquist? Are they just getting lucky (was usually the case but not always).

I used to assume player shooting percentage over the past 3 years was their true level, IIRC you regressed pretty heavily when we last spoke. I didnt love my approach but it was always good enough to beat props (a few years ago anyway. Havent done them in a while). Im surprised youre killing points but not SOG, SOG was always one of my best subsets for years and I used a fairly simple model.
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Old 12-18-2019, 03:00 PM   #2770
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



ultimate whale play
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Old 12-18-2019, 03:51 PM   #2771
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i know about birkin now thanks to him
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Old 12-18-2019, 04:11 PM   #2772
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
For example, are the NY Rangers "good at defense"? They allow a **** ton of Corsi events. The most in the league actually and they have a horrible CF%. But they are pretty good (lucky?) at preventing those Corsi events from being on goal. And they aren't giving up that many actual goals which make me think they are purposely allowing teams to take lower quality shots? Or is that not a thing since they then risk getting scored on by higher quality rebound shots? Explain this game to me.
I think xG is a pretty solid metric for evaluating the strength of a defense, and as you mentioned the Rangers are pretty god awful in that regard. Things like high danger chances allowed per 60 would also be a pretty good way to know the quality of chances a team gives up. You can take a look at things like https://www.chartinghockey.ca/daily-...y-team-charts/ and poke around at some teams that give up a lot of shots but still have low xGA.
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Old 12-18-2019, 06:55 PM   #2773
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I guess we can just use opposing team goalie saves, add back expected goals, and subtract our projected team totals SOGs. The leftover is our market-implied fudge factor.
Call the fudge factor Greek letter, φ, to make it sound scientific.
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Old 12-18-2019, 07:34 PM   #2774
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

ANA Ryan Getzlaf u2.5 -156
ANA Rickard Rakell u2.5 +113
COL Nazem Kadri o2.5 +112
EDM James Neal o2.5 +149
EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins o2.5 +148
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:40 PM   #2775
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

anyone know how bookies get bitcoin errors ?

im trying to withdraw and they seem to have an issue with btc..like what?
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