am i reading that right, 55k? i thought the biggest poker tournaments are only like 10k buy-in. when did fantasy sports get so big? how many entries were there?

Had an over on receiving yards for a player in yesterday's game get refunded after he ended up with 0 yards. Read the books house rules and it turns out the player needs to be targeted for their receiving props to be action. Haven't checked many other books lines but that doesn't seem like the norm? I've def won props with players who got 0 receptions/yards but played special teams. Anyways just another reminder to always know what rules you're playing under!

You can't buy in and qualify via satellites. It has been big for almost a decade now, and based on what i read on the forums/twitter it seems like everyone besides me, and you, has made millions upon millions from it.

Mine still listed as a loss. They just freeroll everyone that doesn't check? Because I certainly wouldn't have checked.

180, 10 mil prize pool. Top 3 was 2 mil, 1mil, 750k. Most of the satellites have 20% rake on them, but the hotel is free and they do give you travel. I only did one 12 person satellite and got lucky winning by less than 0.1 points. There's a max numbers of entries you can have, maybe 5? Some guy had 4 or 5 lineups in the top 10 towards the end.

I think it's turning into poker now though where all the people who were "winners" are now selling packages for huge markup on websites. Saw people selling 40% of their package for 1.4 markup. They also all trade action with each other to "reduce variance" (aka I'm playing way above my head and one bad day will cause me to go broke).

Always need to check BM props. They mis-grade 1-2 a day.

Get into DFS Golf Iowa!, they have million dollar tournaments too and everyone seems to hate picking Patrick Cantlay even though all he does is score tons of points.

Rsig, didn't you used to keep like a personal sharkscope for dfs?

oh yes to make that affiliate $$ back in the day before we were told to stop doing that. unfortunately i had the big affiliate deals with the smaller sites and they're all dead now

hope you bros got to that Brees u28.5 complete passes when it was still 28.5

down to 27.5 with -135 on the under

they have a header for the total sacks, but nothing posted. here's my over under for the common #s

5.5 over: 28%, under: 72%
4.5 over: 44.88%, under: 55.12%

i'm assuming they'll open at 4.5? if yes little value on the under at -115

We also got a Dominican RSIF

Leones del Escogido vrs Gigantes del Cibao Score in the First Inning - Yes -101 - ( ACTION )

Game Start 12/16/2019 @ 05:30 PM

Good to -111

They just adjusted the under 5.5 sacks prop from yesterday on today's tab. It paid me much less than was supposed to.

SOGs
NSH Roman Josi o3.5 +122
NSH Filip Forsberg o3.5 +104
WAS Evgeny Kuznetsov u2.5 -175

GAPs
NYR Ryan Strome Points u0.5 +108
CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand Points u0.5 -103
CBJ Seth Jones Assists o0.5 +160
COL Joonas Donskoi Points u0.5 -117
COL Andre Burakovsky Points u0.5 -130
COL Gabriel Landeskog Points u0.5 +105
DAL John Klingberg Assists o0.5 +189
DAL John Klingberg Points o0.5 +130
DAL Joe Pavelski Points o0.5 +122
DAL Alexander Radulov Assists o0.5 +187
DAL Alexander Radulov Points o0.5 -110
EDM James Neal Points u0.5 -136
EDM Connor McDavid Assists o0.5 -101

I've max entered every single major for the last 5 years and think I've min cashed twice. Sharp enough to win against CRIS -115 lines but not DFS apparently.

So if anyone wants to chime in...

I was wasting time trying to derive first touchdown scorer props and was doing something like:
Colts tds 2.3
Marlon Mack .35 td
Brissett .12 td
Colts to score first td 38%

So that gives us
Mack first td (.35/2.3)*.38 = .058
Brissett first td (.12/2.3)*.38 = .02

But typical game flow for a big underdog would suggest Mack is more likely to score earlier in the game and less likely later when a player like Hynes is more likely to be on the field. So do we make manual adjustments now?

I have small freeplays on Brissett +4500 and Mack +1300 and the research isn’t really worth the time, but it was fun playing around with numbers instead of changing dirty diapers.

lil late but nba props dec 16

https://pastebin.com/W0b0nakg

still some value out there

They shorted me .50

% wise paid me much less but it was a small bet anyway so not that big of a deal. They must have gone the adjustment route instead of regrading route to screw over anyone who doesn't contact them.

here's what we on tonight

Drew Brees u28.5 Pass complete -115
Cook o3.5 Receptions 120
Hines o3 Receptions -115
Doyle u4.5 Receptions -115
Johnson u3 Receptions -115
Pascal u4.5 Receptions -115

Now
Brees u27.5 -135
Cook o3.5 -110
Doyle u4 -150
Johnson u3 -200
Pascal u4 -170
Hines o3 -140

Imagine being the prop linesman at these books and still being employed

Sigs, what was the vibes like at finals (lots of screaming, etc)? Did you have a sweat at any point during the slate? Always wanted to attend one of those things just to see what it was like.

My first 2H model: NOR -2.5 fair (will work on precision)

Market was NOR -4, so I'm on IND.

we made an incorrect assumption that drew brees would have some incomplete passes

SOGs Daily: 2-1-0, +1.22u
SOGs YTD: 175-178-1, -16.44u, 424.7u risked, -3.9% ROI

GAPs Daily: 9-4-0, +6.19u
GAPs YTD: 27-23-1, +8.12u, 64.74u risked, +12.5% ROI

i feel like we would have cashed that u28.5 if brees wasn't a records chaser. 29th and complete pass was just a pass behind the line.

still not bad. only lost that and hines o3 to wrap up a nice 45.13% ROI NFL Week 15. and GOAT Steven Adams bails us out of a losing day getting his 11th rebound with 2 seconds left.

too bad was no u4.5 sacks available or we would have crushed that too

only 2 weeks left. lets close strong

Nice results. Many years ago I bet a lot of props, but the limits turned me off as my appetite for risk grew. How much can you actually bet on these common props, like QB pass completions?

There are two nice things about the derivatives (like first half spread or totals, and team totals). I can bet a lot on them, and you often find crazy numbers that didn't follow a major line move on the parent market.

Anyone pricing props at a sportsbook isn't getting paid enough to get someone who understands props well enough to price them correctly. Most sportsbook guys don't think about the difference between means and medians, which is why you see so many props that are too high.

across all outs and vegas for nfl around 3-4k depending on the prop. Pass attempts is the smallest amount because it seems only bookmaker offers it that i can access. It's just extra grocery money while betting full games, halfs, quarters, etc. I've only started last year because of all the books offering them now. It used to be hard to find them in Vegas but now it seems they have props on every player. And BM only used to offer props in the playoffs or their head 2 head fantasy scores.

oh yes derivatives we did those like 10 years ago in here and it led to tbab and a construction worker in vegas going crazy and killing themselves because they couldn't figure out simple math. The chart that kills HRE and RSIF is all derivatives based with some smoothing.

Time line progression

Get an insane bankroll early on thanks to DALIMAN teasers (before he invented them the following year) -> Run insane in MLB based on projections -> Use bankroll to bet derivatives for everything else because I had a massive database I was building for the prior 3 years -> Develop own models that is superior to derivatives due to all the extra time from living a cushy life thanks to DALIMAN and MLB -> Do this for ten years -> Start betting props too because of availability and ignoring them for so long -> Turn into POOGS by getting 900 local accounts from shady people across the USA -> Dodge ram

Sorry I forgot pre that

Train to become an actuary -> summer internship in the WTC -> 9/11 happens two weeks after it ends, people i know died -> go work in Antarctica on science instead because terrorism doesn't exist there, only The Thing -> return to the USA like Rambo with no friends, family or purpose -> travel to Las Vegas -> decide to try use the machine learning skills I learned on the job to beat baseball since it was an emerging field and if I fail I can just go back to work for the government -> (daliman)

If I did it all over again, I'd focus much sooner on derivatives. I've only hit them a lot the last 3 years.

My history starting in 2001 was:
Card counting -> NFL using Sagarin ratings -> Arena football (I wasn't smart, but the market was weak) -> less bad full game models for NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB -> MLB using a simulator and USA today projections -> MLB with Pecota and excel.

Then about 10 years ago, I switched focuses. MLB live -> NFL live -> NFL and NCAAF h2s -> Tennis pregame (this was my single most successful project) -> NBA live -> Tennis live -> Derivatives -> Neural net approaches to everything

All of these won (it's startling, seeing how many god-awful wrong things I did), but I always focused on enjoying the process more than maximizing money. I've had a lot of fun and met interesting people on the way. More recently I've been focusing on the money so I can spend less time on it, and more time reading, writing, playing with my kids, telescopes and fencing.

I've been enjoying catching up on this thread, and am intrigued by what led each of you to where you are today (referring to the last few posts). I'm sure there are others out there with similarly unique (is that a thing?) histories.

Mine: Day trading in college with my scholarship money->traveling around the world (while in school)->card counting in Vegas on weekends while in school->law school->enjoying the entertaining side of entertainment/sports law more than the actual work itself->poker full time for 11 years, including moving to Mexico (who would have seen that coming?)->immersing myself in sports the last few years.

It's been an interesting ride. How do you guys find any free time for real life? That's my struggle now while focusing on sports--having so much less free time than with poker.

Keep up the great props work!