Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley
Bookmaker has the total sacks prop again after not offering it for weeks.
u5.5 -125
I have u5.5 at 64.843%
Interesting. A quick and dirty way to get a probability is to count the total sacks forced and allowed by both teams (Baltimore: 33 forced, 24 allowed; NYJ 29 forced; 47 allowed) and divide by the games played (13 for both).
133 total sacks, or 5.11 average per game. A Poisson suggests it's only 59.6% on the under 5.5; still a good bet but quite a ways from 64.8%. In the past, simple approaches like that are more than most sportsbooks do, and were enough to win.
You might get better answers with an NFL database; how does the (huge) spread affect sacks? Maybe NYJ gives up by the 4th quarter in a lot of games, and runs the clock out (lowering the sacks).
I don't really bet props anymore; I'm looking for somewhat higher volume. It's an interesting problem though, I'm curious how you got your number, even in very general terms.