nba
https://pastebin.com/1kJBLNiX

nhl sog
https://pastebin.com/xCJQgtKh

Seems like a lot of overs, what do the SHARPS think?

Silfverberg u2 SOG 110
Couture o2.5 SOG 127
Hoffman o2.5 SOG -115
Burns o2.5 SOG -115
Huberdeau o2.5 SOG 100
Kessel o2.5 SOG 100
Stone o2.5 SOG -115
Ekman-Larsson o1.5 SOG -130
Eichel o3.5 SOG -115
Olofsson o2.5 SOG -115
Skinner u3 SOG 110

Thank you for clarifying

What I meant to phrase it as that results are less consistent in hockey so in theory this means that your peaks and valleys should be larger than for other sports so I believe that a lengthy negative roi in a hockey prop market would be less concerning as well as why my early season success there in DFS is less significant than for something now consistent such as basketball

I honestly am not even 100%, just tossing ideas out to try to drive this into discussion but I understand why people aren't keen to jump in

Well you're just totally confused about this subject. Not sure what there is to drive forward.

Added play

EDM Leon Draisaitl o2.5 -140

Not sure why you think people wouldn't be keen to help explain this to you, it has no direct impact on anything.

As someone else pointed out, your confusing a tonne of things here.

I would suggest to you, your advantage in hockey isn't the same as in basketball.

Hopefully this should be clearer... in every sport a 5% edge at +100 is the same, a 5% edge at -500 is the same but they are different.

Daily: 3-4-0, -0.78u
YTD: 158-160-1, -15.66u, 383u risked, -4.1% ROI

i give up on NHL, it's impossible

so close to winning sunday night showdown. metcalf catch on the last drive got me tied for 16th (1st-15th were all tied for first, so technically second best lineup)

went from +45k (would have tied with 14 other people) -> +6k on that catch, but at least rams covered too

These past two weeks in showdown NFL have been crazy

1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 16th for nfl (and 3rd in the smaller one)

also got 1st in Nba and pga twice.

+450k or some obscene amount. TomG just hit random select on these showdown slates and cash big

I agree and know this from the start. My point was more to the effect that hockey has a tendency to do this.

I don't think I'm better at projecting hockey, in fact, I'm markedly worse. But my edge is larger because it's that other people are much worse than I because the top talent like Sigs get too frustrated and quit it.

I was just telling him to stick with it and embrace the pain.

This was meant as tongue and cheek because of the one word responses of "wrong" and stuff like that didn't even care to elaborate what they thought I was wrong about.

I think the issue here is I wasn't good at communicating my thoughts correctly and I'm pretty sure we've been talking about different things as I'm talking about this from a DFS perspective.

This right here sums up perfectly how incorrect people can be in hockey. https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...6746/104252184 look at all the single digit scores (cash line in 50/50 usually between 100-60) and remember that the "Mike" account is the best in the world.

I also felt very strongly that there were only two options to go with at center in either McDavid/Toews or McDavid/Stastny and while everyone got on McDavid, Mike and I were the only ones who went Toews or Stastny despite that with the matchup and their absurdly cheap pricing they were extremely obvious plays you didn't even need to do projections to discover.

It's impossible to fail to this level at other sports if you have tomg, sigs or Mike talent but this happens regularly in DFS nhl. You gotta just say F it and roll with it. I personally had a horrendous showing but it was often the least horrendous of the bunch today.

Meanwhile, I had a just slightly below expected output today in NFL and yet took a bath because there are no nights there where less than optimal is forgiven.

sustainable ?



i feel like if hockey had higher limits i might put some more effort into it, but not worth ~$250 limits IMO. It sounds like too much work. Maybe in February after the NFL season is over and basketball turns horrible because all the teams are resting their starters for two months to prepare for the playoffs.

lol

thats sick man gz

pretty ridiculous when you consider that for most of those people, that money actually means something and their motivation is higher.

where do you think the difference lies - is your data that much better? clever angles and understanding of the sport? or intricate details of data analysis which you learned in STAT 102 which nobody else is doing?

well if you paid attention to the tweets you'd notice it's apparently all from establish the run and their adept recognition that george kittle is a generational talent

must have identified an inefficiency in showdowns, good on ya

when you launch the tout site waxDFS.com i want to be your COO

WAS Evgeny Kuznetsov u2.5 -148
OTT Brady Tkachuk o3.5 +117
COL Mikko Rantanen u2.5 -115

better projections, unique strategy for showdowns (in non-showdowns i'm only up $900 or so), luck

mix them all together and you get that

i mean you still have people doing stupid stuff like rostering TE/D/K in captain, double RB's from the same team, etc.

I think optimizers are good for spitting out lineups across multiple games where there's some correlation but not much. Showdown it requires more attention to correlation and stacks going beyond just QB/WR. Most of the lineups those things spit out for Showdown are drawing dead.

Just open source an optimizer with built it historical correlations for certain stacks and ruin it for everyone.

any nba today rsigleyyyyyyyyyyyyy?

Pinny's credit site has $250 limits (30 cent line), so main site is probably $500. Bovada also offers for $500 with a 40 cent line. Sadly, neither site will let you parlay these props.

rsigley, thanks for letting me know i should put generational TEs in the MVP spot, I won $300 off a $9 entry on MNF.

My eyes have been opened. No longer will I be 'dead money' losing $2-15 a week in DFS.

in baseball there used to be some guys who literally played guys on the bench hoping for an unowned pinch hit home run - that is dying out but it's been replaced by people rostering relief pitchers

people are dumb

he only accepts thank yous via twitter shoutouts

#buildthebrand

ertz and kittle

i had tons of slayton in captain, but no generational boston scott anywhere, so just small wins.

if the other TE was as generational as ertz could have won big since i was rolling with a lot of dual TE after agolhar was out which seems horrible but fly eagles fly

Daily: 1-2-0, -1.15u
YTD: 159-162-1, -16.81u, 386.63u risked, -4.3% ROI

nba dec 10
https://pastebin.com/Wv32Lg39

MTL Max Domi u2.5 -141
MTL Artturi Lehkonen u2.5 -207
MTL Ben Chiarot u2.5 -210
PIT Bryan Rust o2.5 +125
WPG Blake Wheeler o2.5 -105
NSH Roman Josi o2.5 -178
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +141
CGY Noah Hanifin u1.5 +128
VGK Max Pacioretty o3.5 -112
VGK Jonathan Marchessault o2.5 -168
VGK Shea Theodore o2.5 -104
TOR Morgan Rielly o2.5 +124