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Old 12-07-2019, 04:11 PM   #2526
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Where are those lines taken from?

I'm wondering if unlike other sports maybe for hockey there is no game within the game. People just skate around chasing the puck and smashing into each other and so Game Within The Game Theory doesn't apply here?
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Old 12-07-2019, 04:18 PM   #2527
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Late slate added plays

NJD Kyle Palmieri u2.5 -151
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +153
CGY Rasmus Andersson u1.5 +113
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Old 12-07-2019, 05:03 PM   #2528
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
sure. it's assists and rebounds been killing it this year

thanks, gonna ride all the SOGs too lol
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Old 12-07-2019, 05:13 PM   #2529
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

rick,

Yeah, I heard the rake was a giant mess. I agree with the huge entries having more dead money now that they've restricted entries.

n00b,

wp.
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Old 12-07-2019, 07:47 PM   #2530
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
Where are those lines taken from?

I'm wondering if unlike other sports maybe for hockey there is no game within the game. People just skate around chasing the puck and smashing into each other and so Game Within The Game Theory doesn't apply here?
new online book i found that has access to BetBuilder

Got to cali in time to start the process for tomorrow and get some goalie saves in. They're also a lot of overs, so alignment with SoG theory.

all -115

Bobrovsky u28.5
Mrazek o25.5
Domingue u29.5
Binnington u29.5 ** (this one seems like big one of the day)
Campbell o26.5
Andersen o27.5
Bishop o26
Stalock u29
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Old 12-07-2019, 08:39 PM   #2531
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
Late slate added plays

NJD Kyle Palmieri u2.5 -151
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +153
CGY Rasmus Andersson u1.5 +113
Do not like this jarnkrok under, not because I disagree on the value, nor do I think he's necessarily good, but because he's close to min priced so I'm nearly 100% on him tonight
Quote:
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rick,

Yeah, I heard the rake was a giant mess. I agree with the huge entries having more dead money now that they've restricted entries.

n00b,

wp.

Yeah, I think long term future is gpp instead of cash as both easier to get action and more dead money
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Old 12-07-2019, 08:41 PM   #2532
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Binnington gave up 4 goals in 13 minutes

maybe they will pull him

edit: Pulled. easy $$

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 12-07-2019 at 08:47 PM.
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Old 12-07-2019, 08:59 PM   #2533
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Binnington gave up 4 goals in 13 minutes

maybe they will pull him

edit: Pulled. easy $$

!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 12-08-2019, 12:49 AM   #2534
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What you guys think a fair line would have been on the lightning winning 7-1 and Kucherov not recording a point nor gaining any +/-?
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Old 12-08-2019, 12:51 AM   #2535
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:
Daily: 3-5-0, -2.78u
YTD: 155-156-1, -14.88u, 375.59u risked, -4.0% ROI

I would say back to sucking at this except I was never actually good so I hope you can pick up my slack rsigley.
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Old 12-08-2019, 12:54 AM   #2536
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

keep fighting tomg
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Old 12-08-2019, 04:38 AM   #2537
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

TomG you didnt make that sick ass cup for nothing
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Old 12-08-2019, 09:26 AM   #2538
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i didn't do much better
went 6-6 -0.25u on SOG and 2-6 on goalie saves lol. gonna stop for a while and ifgure out what's wrong. maybe hockey is unsolvable.

updated final nfl stats for week based on injuries, etc.

https://pastebin.com/CVeqUjtw

good luck everyone
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Old 12-08-2019, 09:50 AM   #2539
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i think you guys are doing fine simply based off this http://www.ecmlpkdd2013.org/wp-conte...bmission_2.pdf

there's just way more variance in hockey than the other sports, but i think this is what makes it profitable because it keeps out a lot of the more risk-averse people

i think this is why nhl and soccer are relatively sharp free because they burnout from the frustratingly high variance
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Old 12-08-2019, 10:24 AM   #2540
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Rsigley,

Any chance of an NBA pastebin for today?

The NFL pastebin comes up as yesterdays NBA for me.
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Old 12-08-2019, 10:35 AM   #2541
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

big update to nfl, use this one

https://pastebin.com/6xY69NTM
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Old 12-08-2019, 10:54 AM   #2542
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
i think you guys are doing fine simply based off this http://www.ecmlpkdd2013.org/wp-conte...bmission_2.pdf

there's just way more variance in hockey than the other sports, but i think this is what makes it profitable because it keeps out a lot of the more risk-averse people

i think this is why nhl and soccer are relatively sharp free because they burnout from the frustratingly high variance
This is wrong
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Old 12-08-2019, 11:00 AM   #2543
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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This is wrong
the article or my following statement?

i didn't actually read that article (well it's possible I have) but just went to google scholar and typed "luck hockey" because i knew there have been many studies on it so it's possible i shared a bad one but unless I'm grossly informed, hockey has a greater luck factor than other sports

i actually thought about editing to mention i was specifically talking about dfs

I actually believe higher variance would actually be good for props - just super frustrating at the early stages when you're still workshopping it due to sample sizes - but i'm a sports betting virgin so honestly have no idea

could you elaborate?
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Old 12-08-2019, 11:21 AM   #2544
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

All of it

Variance just depends on edge
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Old 12-08-2019, 11:42 AM   #2545
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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All of it

Variance just depends on edge
do you care to elaborate? so you think that hockey doesn't have more variance or that it does but is immaterial to our purposes?

forgive me if i misinterpret your statements, but we need to improve our efficiency here

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Old 12-08-2019, 11:50 AM   #2546
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'll never give it, the challenge is too great. I just feel bad for you guys having to watch me fumble around in the process.

CHI Brandon Saad o2.5 +143
ARI Derek Stepan o2.5 +148
ARI Conor Garland o2.5 +112
WPG Blake Wheeler o2.5 +111
WPG Nikolaj Ehlers o2.5 -101
ANA Ondrej Kase o2.5 +125
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Old 12-08-2019, 11:57 AM   #2547
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What has more variance, hitting black in roulette at fair odds 48% or Evander Kane o3.5 +125 when I predict fair odds of +108? Snarky answers are OK.

What if I told you the roulette ball bounced 100 times before settling on red/black instead of 20 times? Would that change your estimate of the variance?
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Old 12-08-2019, 01:18 PM   #2548
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

[QUOTE=rickroll;55653626]do you care to elaborate? so you think that hockey doesn't have more variance or that it does but is immaterial to our purposes?

forgive me if i misinterpret your statements, but we need to improve our efficiency here

[/QUOTE

Variance in relation to your edge is the same across all sports. looks like you got the wrong end of the stick.
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Old 12-08-2019, 01:30 PM   #2549
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Variance in relation to your edge is the same across all sports. looks like you got the wrong end of the stick.
I never meant to imply that more variance meant no edge nor did I say that. Just said that it makes it harder to predict but everyone is dealing with the same randomness so it shouldn't hurt the edge but it sure as hell increases the sample size before you can realize your equity if it's there.
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Old 12-08-2019, 01:35 PM   #2550
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

im not sure what you mean when you say 'I never meant to imply that more variance meant no edge'...

what i am suggesting is, your variance should be the same across any sport if you have 5% egde at +100
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