Is anyone smart enough to take a spreadsheet with event date, teams, and add an indicator column for Is Back-to-Back? It seems like it should be easy, we have all the info, but I'm too stupid to figure it out. Or just tell me how to do it. Thanks team.

Example
https://pastebin.com/SC3kqF2h

Add a column for yesterday's date, plug in today's date -1 into that cell and then use a series of Count Ifs with Home/Away team names and yesterdays date as the criteria.

Or I can just send you a schedule that has it all already.

Iowa! if you need extra income DFS Golf



back 2 back 1st places in 2 days. how do you get a solo win back 2 back with only like 8 golfers available? easy life

they need higher stakes for showdown, maybe when the tour kicks off for real.

I actually prefer to do it myself, it's a fun exercise and you've given the approach I needed to get started so thank you

An hour away, 25.5.

And if you have the outs for white collar ditch digging, first half Central Arkansas +15/under 67.5 is about a 30% theoretical parlay. Half of the gain is from the first half total; the other is the actual correlation.

More goalie saves

Bishop u28 -115 (64.71%)
Rittich u28 -115 (61.49%)

Easy cash for Dominican RSIF.

Central Ark down to +24.5
Trubisky pass attempts up to 31.5 with -140 on the over

We have really changed a lot of lives today. Good job everyone.

Me? Once I copied the Great Wall of Porn idea and tried to make an affiliate site out of it. All it did was embed videos from other sites, add my links to get that sign up money, and then scroll across the screen in a 5 x forever grid.

I gave up though after earning $0 in commission after 7 months even though the site was getting a healthy amount of visitors. I didn't realize no one pays for that stuff.

PSA: Jarwin u2 is now -210, so you can take the other side at +180 for a nice 16.66% free arb. Or be a man and let it ride.

or with the low receptions of 2, maybe arbing makes sense

Perhaps we should start a crowdsourced porn syndicate? We are measuring enough dick in here that we may as well monetize.

Brag: Won 72% my h2hs in NHL this season, predominantly $109 and $270

Beat: it looks like today is third day straight of having a terrible cash lineup

Variance: doesn't matter, action dried up and only getting takers at $5 and less lately

Pottery painting syndicate. As a special reward for a winning day, I like to treat myself to my morning coffee out of a specialty mug.

Central Ark loses by 26.

i hope Trubisky doesn't throw exactly 31.5 passes now. we will all have egg on our face

damn guys

we were 0.6 points away from winning the thursday night showdown back to back



TomG why did you ever quit DFS.

Sorry if you got 31.5 on Trub, 31 was key. I think that and Iowa!'s central arkansas highlight an important thing.

Need to be on top of things and get there early. Too late and you lose both.

Overall props went good tho, lets pull it together and believe for Sunday

Tom do you have an etsy store? I'd love to buy a mug. I don't drink hot drinks, but I'd do it to support you.

Someone did take a 109 afterall and didn't notice, luckily he shat the bed .8 points worse lol

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...3077/103948493

Sigs, if you want to swap golf info for hockey I'm down... Granted tonight's contest isn't so supportive of my skills but for what it's worth the end boss of NHL DFS has had equally poor showings because we're usually one the same core pieces

Also, I too was surprised Tom dropped out, he left when I was still grinding up and purely a low stakes player but he was one of less than a half dozen accounts I'd be on the lookout for when deciding if a 10 man group would be too competitive to sit, actively avoided tomg like a bad case of herpes

Sigs, you think jarwin being captained in 0.06% it's too much or too little

rick,

What is the hierarchy of DFS sites? Is this like a PS ~ FTP > random sites > weird ring fenced poker rooms attached to casino sites type of deal?

yes and very much so, I am a big fish in a very small pond

Fanduel (FD) and Draft Kings (DK) get probably 80%+ of the volume, those are the places where you can play for $10 and win 6 figures if you get first

after that it's a mix between fantasy draft and yahoo which are much smaller players and then a couple dozen others you probably don't want to deal with because just like in poker, the smaller sites aren't all that financially viable and can suddenly go bankrupt because their marketing spend outweighed the rake

for example, i only recently discovered phil galfond had launched a dfs site, it actually seemed pretty cool because it visualized the sweat or something which would in theory attract a lot of the people who make it sustainable, i don't know how it worked though because i only learned of it due to it's memorial thread when it shut down it's doors

FD and DK also have incredibly good deals for affiliates, which is why they grew so well because all the touts were so incentivized to steer traffic specifically to those two (it was like 20% of lifetime rake but they since changed it because their affiliate fees made them insolvent) and by now they are the big boys so the affiliates just keep promoting them because now they are the market

I chose Yahoo because they grandfathered me in via invites to freerolls via their traditional fantasy sports and loved their UI and at the time they had the lowest rake and regularly offer unraked contests - being able to get $48 in unraked h2hs each slate (where they give you a free win if it goes unmatched) is huge when you have a small bankroll

if you started today, i'd fantasy draft because they recently dropped rake entirely in exchange for membership fees and i've done the math, it's orders of magnitude lower, especially if you're a high volume player

in yahoo, the most you can win in a single gpp is a few thousand dollar because it's either a $1 gpp with 10-20k entrants or a $109 gpp with 20 entrants etc etc. In football and basketball, they have heavy 10 man group action but i avoid those because it's like the tables at Macau, 7+ of the same elite players in each one hoping the few randos who join (sometimes it's just 10 regs) will be terrible enough for it to be +EV, honestly, I just don't get it, maybe they are overconfident, maybe I suck at recognizing the dead money, but I just don't see why you'd want to join a 10 man group if 7 of the top 10 guys in DFS are playing in it and the other 3 are fairly competent as well - so you could feasibly play over five figures on a single football slate and possibly do it in basketball but the vast majority of the money will be in small contests of the same people

only sports i max reg and play every available contest are soccer and nhl, soccer runs about $200-$400 not including h2hs and >90% of that are in 6 man groups, nhl is about 1k and again, 90%+ is going to be allocated in 10 man and 6 man groups. There are only 3 other NHL accounts at Yahoo that I respect, one is like me and will be there every day in every contest and the other are a bit less predictable, if only 2 are in a contest i'm in for sure, if i see three of them i'll probably unreg because i'd rather play lower volume at lower variance

joined this right at lock because it seemed like it had a shot at overlay and despite having 4 of the top 10 best cash game players in the world, it's still an absurdly weak group overall - this isn't me firing shots, i respect everyone in that group, but i'm definitely glad 5 of them are there isn't of more of the usual suspects https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...6713/104031689 fading both miller and robinson appears to have been a huge mistake

only reason why i haven't transitioned yet from Yahoo is that I'm kind of grandfathered in and as a h2h player that is crucial - it's probably no surprise to you but a huge part of h2h success is surviving the process where you earn your stripes and all the big boys have tested you and decided they don't want your action so you mostly get degen action instead - infamously, someone in Ryan Daut's syndicate noticed a high stakes reg who plays as "birdwings" didn't play on Yahoo and decided to use his name just to skip the trial by fire hoping people would assume it was the original birdwings and avoid him

this is another issue for me, I play as "adam" so i'm clearly not going to be able to get that name elsewhere... hence why i'm delaying my transition because it'll be such a pain to adapt the models to the fairly different structures and be forced to earn enough street credit where the guys who I'd be trading rake with finally stop taking my action and trading rake

often though of playing as "yahoo adam" or something like that but that sounds way too insecure and sycophantic for my own tastes

lately a lot of thoughts running through my mind have been on next steps

A. Be complacement and button mash existing model on yahoo for steady ROI
B. Expand models and get very aggressive with roll expanding/transitioning action over to fantasy draft
C. converting model to props and joining your ranks or die trying then live with my parents like George Constanza

haven't had time to do much other than mental exercises for B or C but loving this thread and happy you guys tolerate me derailing with dfs chatter to make myself feel relevant

Daily: 2-3-0, -1.91u
YTD: 148-145-1, -10.36u, 355.07u risked, -2.9% ROI

TE's like Blake Jarwin in the captain are usually poor decisions even in MME GPP's. TE in general is bad. There's a few exceptions (e.g., my first biggish win two weeks ago was with Kittle in the captain spot), but look at the distributions of points (y scale got cut off, but the top is ~40 points)



relatively, TE's score much less. Partly because most teams only have one they use and TE's stay in and block more often, they tend to be slow big guys so hard to break away, etc.

RB's slightly better than QB/WR, everything else is a dart throw unless you got someone like Kittle, Waller before Renfrow showed up, etc. as TE

Question for model review:

Do you track degree of accuracy. Let's say you take the o2.5, does it matter to you later if final result was 0 vs 3 vs 6 vs 10?

Or is more binary of correct or incorrect?

RMSE is commonly used for that. The aspie homoscedasticity nonsense earlier deals with this. Most notably from the wiki: "The assumption of homoscedasticity simplifies mathematical and computational treatment."

Feel free to think up some situations where this may apply in your modeling. I can give you a starter, when someone rages out in golf and hits all their balls into the water and walks off the course. Whether it occurs often enough to be meaningful to your model or alter any bets, who knows.

NJD P.K. Subban o2.5 +133
NJD Taylor Hall o3.5 -102
PIT Kris Letang o3.5 +133
ARI Clayton Keller u2.5 -145
MTL Jeff Petry o2.5 +141
MTL Brendan Gallagher o3.5 -107
MTL Joel Armia o3.5 +137
EDM Leon Draisaitl u2.5 +126
ANA Nick Ritchie u1.5 +130
ANA Ondrej Kase o2.5 +127

I had the same thought when I was really grinding props. I figured it was useful info to know that if I bet something like u6.5 catches, if it ended up at 6 or 1 was better to know than if yes no if it won or not. I didnt keep up with it enough to get a good sample though

Poogs,

If you wanna prop bet on any prop for huge stakes, I would, but you're a scumbag who'd prob cheat.

Christ that is a woeful answer.

Thremp,

lol cool post. "Ill prop with you, but actually I wont"

Multiple times Ive offered you a perfectly reasonable escrowed bet about whether im a scammer or not. Youve ignored it multiple times. So, again, take it or just continue to be the kind of person that throws out insults and then cowers and hides when the bet offer comes, on top of being already just an objectively horrible person to begin with. Your entire network starting up a group chat just to have one without you is the funniest thing ive ever heard btw.

And im not doing this anymore with you. Youre beneath me and its boring and been going on forever and not fair to everyone else on here. if you ever want to take me up on my bet PM me, otherwise im putting you on ignore. Hope youre able to achieve some happiness in life, youll be in my prayers

Primeau u28 Saves LOSS -1.15
Kuemper u29.5 Saves WIN +1
Dell o27.5 Saves LOSS -1.15
Vasilevskiy o27.5 Saves LOSS -1.15
Rask u28 Saves WIN +1
Varlamov u29 Saves LOSS -1.15
Bishop u28 Saves LOSS -1.15
Rittich u28 Saves WIN +1

BimmyLee Goalie Saves
Yesterday: 3-5 -2.55u
Total: 5-8 -4.05u on 14.95u risked (-27.09% ROI)

THIS IS A DISASTER

I worked on this some last night for about 5 hours. This mornings update seems more in line with what's out there with the exception of Koskinen, Quick, and huge difference on Georgiev. The others tend to be ~55-57% to happen. Lets just keep working on it guys. Never give up.

All -115

Koskinen u29.5
Quick o25.5
Gibson o27.5
Crawford u29.5
Holtby o26.5
Raanta u30.5
Georgiev u33.5

No bets available for Dominican RSIF. Tight market.

Yesterday: 1-0 +1.31u
YTD: 3-3 +0.66u on 6u risked (11% ROI)