The books were pricing the e/o based on 8.5 and 9 wrong for years. Was supposed to be ~+130 and it was always +140-+145.
What surprises me is using the model I should have only expected to win ~$17k, but somehow I won 5x that. Still don't understand how I ran so good though since most of my other props are in line. For example here's HRE from last year
There are better ways to model it, but just using derivatives year after year has yielded profit for little effort. These also have been very consistent throughout the years vs. HRE where if you use long term data you can produce a losing model. BEtter to use more recent data (I tend to use last 300 games at that total)
This is probably an offensive question as I assume you have this covered already, but is it possible youre regressing his numbers to his career averages too much? His career power numbers are probably still absurd but hes a shell of himself. Again, I know that you know that miggy isnt the same hitter he used to be. But maybe the cliff is even steeper, esp for big power dudes who arent DH's, AND maybe are functioning alcoholics.
YES/NO home run bets are one of the few player prop offerings that I tried and tried to beat but stopped betting them and am in the red for my career (also on that list; NFL o/u for FG's in a game). I tried using some long and complicated formula I stole from fangraphs called xHR or whatever, and just could not make it work.
Tom and others in this thread, are you guys in the red all time in any kind of betting subset? Prop or otherwise? Just curious
I am in the red betting NHL correlated parlays, mostly because I was betting primarily un5.5/+1.5 a couple years ago when the league was in the midst of an offensive revolution. When I was betting them you could have blind bet over every single game and made a healthy profit.
BTW, for people who want to make money don't underestimate the power of having a good database. I know you can tail people, pick off stale lines, steam chase, etc. but you're leaving money on the table if you don't do this.
Let's look at a common prop that is offered: Will there be a score in the first inning. You can take two approaches to this: Use your player projections to determine a fair line or you can use historical data to look at when the total was X, was there a run in the first inning.
Some unreasonable assumptions you make doing this: All games with a total of 8 behave the certain way and yes you will probably make some bad bets as a result, but overall it is a profitable strategy. The full game today is preferable over the 5 inning line due to there being little range in the 5i line. Maybe if you are dedicated you could separate into 3.5 based on some cut off value (-120?), but that seems like a lot of work. The limit on these props tend to max out at $500, so why not just take easy money.
So here is what I did, I subsetted all the MLB o/u since 2014, then calculated how much you would win against Pinnacles closing line for is there a score in the first inning. For 2015, if it was May 27, 2015 it used all the data from 2014 + anything before May 27, 2015. May 27, 2016 used all of 2014, 2015, and April-May 26, 2016, etc. I assumed a $500 max bet (Pinnacle is higher, but this prop is available at a lot of sportsbooks with a $500 max, also if odds are < 0 then it's to win 500, > 0 risk 500) and that you would bet just once.
I started with four theoretical bankrolls at the beginning of each season: 1k, 5k, 10k, 25k. Then I looked at the closing line for run scored in first and if there was an edge, I bet it based on 1/3rd kelly value. At the beginning of each day the bankroll adjusted based on the previous day W/L (e.g., if our initial bankroll was 1k and on day 1 we won $100, our day 2 bankroll would be $1,100). At the beginning of each season I reset the value to the starting bankroll (say you wanted to withdraw or whatever, but this was to highlight that each year it's a profitable strategy).
Below are tables for how you would have done each year.
Profit every single year. Even a "down" year of 2016 still returned a 2% ROI. Also note this is against CLOSING lines. There are tons of bets that are also available closer to closing which get bet down and either lower their value or make them unbettable. Also this is using Pinnacle lines which are sharper than other books. So this is definitely on the low end of what is possible (And from betting this every year, it is definitely the way low end).
How long would this take to accomplish?
Maybe if you have 0 background on databases and scripting - to get a database setup 30 hours?
Scrape the data, if you never did it and need to learn 10 hours?
Then all you need to do each day is write a script to generate the proper RSIF line based on the full game total, look at the lines, and if there's value put them into a kelly calculator.
If you wanna get fancy and have access to XML feeds you can do this all automatically or you can set up a thing where you type in the line and it spits out how much to bet.
So what 15-20 minutes a day to check the lines and bet? And starting with 25k you can make 14.1k, 7.8k, 7.8k, and 13.6k over the four years? Would you really make that much more if you develop a super complex model to predict if there's a run scored in first? Maybe you'll make an extra K but is it worth it? Use the time to make money elsewhere.
And this is just one prop. HRE behaves similarly and has had better returns over the time frame.
There's money out there. Building a good database and learning how to look for meaningful trends (e.g., it makes sense that RSIF should be related to the total, same with HRE, modeling total K's with total doesn't make sense but it might be profitable by pure chance) is a good place to start.
Good post, thank you. I've done this prop in the past and did a more complex model, only betting after lineups are confirmed, etc. which has historically been the reason I slack off on so many bets, not being satisfied with or being unable to conceptually complete a model to my liking. Recently I've tried to simplify things (my TB projections are way more simple now than they were in years past and I'm happier with it), so you've helped validate my latest approach and for that reason I like your post.
Locals generally have this prop priced much better than Pinnacle, it's one of the few props where I think the primary value in the over/yes rather than the under/no. Mysteriously I managed to quadruple pop +130 down to +115 on the Tigers game, pin had I think -101 or something.
Sort of unrelated to your point but IMO pin shouldn't be considered the "sharpest" book anymore with how they've slashed their limits and managed their handle overall recently. Would be interested to see the same report run on BetCRIS.
FWIW if you use the current line when the prop opens, it's actually more profitable (openers are softer for RSIF, could get moved against but use some common sense like if it's o8 -120 and the under is a good bet based on that maybe the real line is 8.5 and wait to see if it moves). But also you can kill it if it's o8 -120 and the line is set like the total is 8 and you pound the over.
We killing it on K's today
6-0-1 +6.24u so far
Let's go undefeated to make up this HRR incoming disaster
4/10 Total Bases:
Jose Ramirez -115 over Castellanos (let's go 0-4 betting on Ramirez) **
Gary Sanchez -110 over Yuli Gurriel
Manuel Machado -115 over Brandon Belt
Bryce Harper -115 over Soto **
*'s are the ones I think are way off and I pray TomG agrees.
Yelich +100 over Trout LOSS -1
Sanchez -110 over Gurriel WIN +1
Meadows -110 over Abreu WIN +1
Springer -110 over Judge WIN +1
Betts -145 over Drury WIN +1
Ramirez -135 over Castellanos LOSS -1.35
Votto -125 over B. Anderson WIN +1
Yesterday: 5-2 +2.65
Total: 18-18-4 -1.1u
Zimmerman u5 -114 WIN +1
Kluber o7.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Urena u4 -114 PUSH
Starburg u7.5 -114 ** WIN +1
Gibson o4.5 -114 WIN +1
deGrom u9 +114 WIN +1.14
Stripling K o5 -105 WIN +1
Jonathan Loaisiga u5 -114 PUSH
Dakota Hudson u5 -114 **** WIN +1
Jakob Junis o5.5 +110 WIN +1.1 (this was lucky, I did math wrong. If you have 5.5 as expected then o5.5 fair is +113. What I get for doing it on my phone while distracted.)
Max Fried u5.5 -114 WIN +1
Marco Gonzalez u5.5 -114 ** WIN +1
Matt Harvey u4.5 +110 LOSS -1 (no idea how he wasn't pulled in the 1st or 2nd or 3rd and manages to strike out Yelich and Braun twice)
Yesterday: 10-1-2 +9.34
Total: 46-33-7 +12.13u
Hopefully you got the Sale and Morton picks for two extra units!
Castellanos u2 -114 PUSH
Benintendi o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
JD Martinez o2 -114 PUSH
Mookie Betts o2 -114 WIN +1
Ji-Man Choi o1.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Austin Meadows o1.5 -114 (8,900 star play) WIN +1
Tommy Pham o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Jose Abreu u2 -114 WIN +1
Josh Harrison NO hit +180 -0.5u
Votto o1.5 -114 WIN +1
Eaton o1.5 -114 WIN +1
Realmuto o1.5 -114 WIN +1
Ramos u1.5 -114 CANCELLED (DNS)
Hosmer u1.5 -114 CANCELLED (DNS)
Polanco u1.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Conforto u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Rendon o2 -114 +1
DeJong u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Granderson ov J. Peraza +110 LOSS -1
Zimmerman u2 -114 WIN +1
Soto is +100 over Herrera WIN +1
CHapman HRR -120 over Mancini LOSS -1.2
Chapman o2 -114 LOSS -1.14 (13 runs and can't even get one hit)
Piscotty o2 -114 PUSH
Pollock u2 -114 WIN +1
Turner u2 -114 WIN +1
Ozuna u2 -114 WIN +1
Gordon u2 -114 PUSH
Merrifield o2 -114 WIN +1
Albies u2.5 -114 ** LOSS -1.14
Pujols u2 -114 ** LOSS -1.14
Adam Jones u2 -114 WIN +1
Peralta u2 -114 WIN +1
Wilmer Flores o1.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Posey u2 -114 ** PUSH
Myers HRR -115 over BElt WIN +1
Yesterday: 15-13-5 +1.9
Total: 50-48-12 -3.51u
I'm going to lay off the HRR bet for a week or so. I want to spend some time and analyze the data instead of just throwing it together quickly. I have a small personal ROI (1.92%, actually 3.1% on the o/u HRR, the H2H are killing me), but feel like I'm overestimating my edge (unless the market on these head 2 head HRR are that bad, I have people as big favorites and they're offered at +110). Next week I will take a day to analyze the data.
The quarter unit, long odds HR props distort the WL record but thankfully we also measure ROI.
Yelich +100 over Trout LOSS -1.0
Kiermaier HR YES +735 LOSS -0.25
Abreu HR YES +560 LOSS -0.25
Castellanos HRR o2 +127 Betbuilder PUSH 0
M.Cabrera HR YES +800 LOSS -0.25
McCutchen (PHI) HR YES +430 LOSS -0.25
Zimmerman (WAS) HR YES +475 LOSS -0.25
Pederson (LAD) HR YES +475 LOSS -0.25
Castro (MIA) HRR o1.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Soto HRR -110 over Herrera WIN +1.0
Gurriel TB +105 over G. Sanchez LOSS -1.0
Bird HRR u2.0 -120 Jazz NO ACTION
Kepler TB +135 over Conforto 5d LOSS -1.0
J.Turner HR NO -700 Risking 1.75u to win 0.25u WIN +0.25
ARI K.Marte a hit YES -180 5d LOSS -1.80
ARI W.Flores a hit YES -180 5d WIN +1.0
Cain HRR -115 over Pujols 5d LOSS -1.15
Grandal HRR -115 over Lucroy 5d WIN +1.0
Daily: 4-12-1, -5.34u
YTD: 28-19-5, +15.55u, 60.91u risked, +25.5% ROI
I'm sorry for tarnishing your stellar W/L record, TomG. Still, 28-19-5 is an excellent YTD in a cutthroat market such as this, when you are going up against the likes of rsigley and fubster. And 25% ROI, that's just unheard of. I don't know if you're using THE BAT or a modified version of THE BAT or you're developing your own prices in-house, but whatever you're doing, it's working. Keep up the good work.
Not to mention, the MLB season is really, really long, so 6 losses shouldn't mean much, and I'm limited on those now, after our sharp plays yesterday. We have struck fear into the heart of the books, and it is only two weeks into the season. I don't know how they're going to survive until things pick up again in autumn. No meelie football money + TomG/rsigley/fubster triple threat + minions maxing and relaxing these proppies multiple times over. What chance do the books have? From this perspective, it is even a little good that we went 0-6 yesterday. As the phrase goes, if the book owes you $10k, they've got a problem. But if the book owes you $10 million, you've got a problem.
Rsigs showing us how a true professional works. When results don't line up with your projections you take a step back and investigate. fwiw i tend to line up pretty closely in the total bases market but also show huge differences with HRR stuff. i'm also off on hit yes/no which is probably bleeding over into HRR. thus far, i just bet the stuff that is farthest off my projection but obviously not ideal.
It's tough because this prop has been around for at least 5 years, if they were so bad wouldn't they have adjusted by now? Maybe no one's bothering with them? Are we actually crushing it and blowing an opportunity?
Even after ~140 bets on it and having a small positive ROI I don't trust it. This is where having a nice database comes in. I archive all my daily projections and all the HRR lines (H2H and o/u), so going to set up a criteria and cycle through the lines and see if over those 5 years was it profitable or not.
If it is profitable, at worst I lose out on a couple days of bets, no big deal. But if it isn't, I saved myself a lot of time and gave myself a lot of work to figure it out.
TB much less opportunities too. What is weird though is every time we align we do bad. 1-3 -a lot when aligned. And thankfully I'm 2-0-1 H2H against you otherwise I'd be busto.
Good point about the long run. This syndicate is only on it's 10th day and there's still 173 days - however long the all star break is in the regular season. It's crazy to think 5 days ago I was -7u in K's and we've added 19 since then. There will be many more +10u days and -10u days.
We just need to weather the storm and not make bad choices based on short term results and not think we are god-like because we have a good couple of days. Keep ourselves grounded.
R. Lopez o5.5 +114, I have fair as -109
Bauer u8 -114, I have fair as -208 (if you only have other books, some places have u7.5 +120 which is good. I have u7.5 as -117)
Glasnow o6.5 -114, I have fair as -138
Boyd u6 -114, I have fair as -208
also in a small version of your total bases battle... some brave soul wants nikolas castellanos to have more total bases than our favorite jose ramirez. He is a believer in the cold streak. good luck to us