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Old 04-01-2019, 09:35 PM   #1
TomG
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Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Welcome to the first ever crowdsourced sports betting syndicate!

In this thread, we each bring our unique talents and abilities together toward a common goal of destroying the bookie. Everything will be entirely self-contained to this thread. That means no private messages, emails, chats, or side deals. All business is conducted in the open in this thread.

We are revolutionizing the sports betting syndicate industry!

Our current focus is MLB player props. If you have access to local, offscreen betting outs, please copy and paste the lines to this thread (pastebin links are the preferred method). The analysts will then review the lines and post if they find any good bets. Anyone viewing this thread is free to bet based on the information in this thread.
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Old 04-02-2019, 12:05 PM   #2
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Being a not fat, but not in shape middle aged white man who is prematurely balding, I get approached by younger people in the Vegas sports books all the time. They comment on how it looks like I've been in this game for ten years and want to hear a story from the good old days. Before people spent 9 hours a day generating DFS statistics to give them away for free or sell a subscription for $20/month instead of using the data to make money for themselves. Before Draftkings ruined the market with increased rake and scandals (can't wait to see what their sportsbook does!) and made profitable DFS players unprofitable forcing them to also flood the market with their data. Simpler times. When modelers trusted their models and risked their money on it. When we shared ideas freely on the message board only to be called names by Thremp.

After I correct them that I've been in the game for sixteen years, I tell them about the magical year of 2011. Let me set the stage first - the online sportsbook market was crumbling. It was harder to get money in, smaller books were folding or merging, several books stopped doing business with the USA, and the government was arresting people involved in bookmaking. Some people smartened up and sold their low quality sportsbooks to TheGreek and used the money to craft a narrative that they won their money through sports betting to get e-Famous and spin that into other jobs. With the dwindling USA population, how could sportsbooks attract new customers?

Enter Pinnacle Sports. While they pulled out of the USA several years earlier, they still had an army of agents who were offering access to USA players. Prior to this, they tended to focus on more traditional bets, but in 2011 that would change. I logged in MLB Opening Day 2011 and was met with a buffet of props to choose from. Some of the traditional ones like hits+runs+errors, score in the first inning, but more novel ones such as First Inning K's and Total Bases. That morning I took an unofficial position as props linesman as every morning at 10am I would adjust their lines to what I thought was fair. It was a good paying job with First Inning K's paying 164k in the first season, but my hardest day at work was with this little Total Bases prop.

July 5, 2011. Any normal day. Wake up, adjust the lines, sit at the computer monitoring the situation all day and checking to see if any other lines need adjusting, when a new prop appeared on my screen. This was odd, as up to this point they never added a prop later in the day. Hunter Pence (Astros led by Wandy Rodriguez) +105 vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates led by Jeff Karstens) -123 and the game starts in 35 minutes. Both Wandy and Karstens were having good years at this point, but according to my model Karstens was running way above expectation and was overvalued. Pence was also a much better player at the time, and my model saw a lot of value in Hunter Pence. I put in a max $1,000 bet, watched the line moved to Pence -105, hit it again down to -120 and was satistified that I made a couple hundred in expected value. Then a minute later it bounces back, Pence +105 - interesting. Reload and hit it again and it goes to -120 after one bet. Little did I know, these were the opening shots in what would become an epic war. I had a healthy bankroll at the time, but not enough to fire more than 4 or 5 shots at a 50k MLB ML and feel worried, but a 1k prop we could unload a banana clip at this thing. Over the next 30 minutes, me and an unknown soldier went back and forth moving the line a combined 48 times. As the game started we were standing there with approximately $26,000 on a prop bet.

Pence got us out to an early lead with a single in the top of the first, followed by a pop out by McCutchen. These were the times before the second you gain any value you hedge out with a live bet and be happy you made $5. When you took a stand you saw it to the end. Pence grounded out in the 4th, and McCutchen struck out on 10 pitches. 5 innings to go. McCutchen got another AB in the next inning. Wandy was tiring leading off with a walk to Karstens, but then rallied striking out the next two. A double to Matt Diaz put 2nd and 3rd with McCutchen coming up. A 3-2 fastball down the middle gets rocked by McCutchen. One foot to the right and it would have been a home run, but it's foul. We get out of the situation with hard ground out to third and a great defensive play by Chris Johnson. Top 6th, Pence singles on a ground ball to McCutchen and we are leading 2-0. McCutchen walks in the bottom of the 7th and it looks like we have this thing sealed up, Pittsburgh is up 5-1 and at home, so we just have to sweat one more inning. Pence strikes out in the top of the 8th and the Pirates go 1-2-3 in the bottom half. No comeback for the Astros in the top of the 9th and we cash approximately 27k on our 26k bet.

There were smaller skirmishes throughout the year such as taking Derrick Lee +148 over Travis Hafner down to -112 over 11 max bets only to get a push, a 14-1 victory of Pujols over Josh Hamilton that went through 23 line changes, and a 1-0 victory of Paul Konerko over Travis Hafner over 9 bets, but nothing close to the intensity of Pence vs. McCutchen.

I had immense disappointment when the 2012 season rolled around and all the non-traditional MLB props were gone. The only things left standing were HRE, To Score First, and Score in the First Inning. Occasionally during the playoffs they bring back Total Bases, but it doesn't matter. When Pinnacle executives were arrested in 2014, they cracked down on agents providing access to US players and we were forced to only bet in Vegas and through telephone with Bookmaker. Vegas offers the props, but not as frequent, with lower limits, and a bigger hold. The lines are tougher now due to the DFS crisis, but one day I hope we can return to those simpler times of 2011.

Unfortunately yesterday we went

0-1-1 in total bases for -1.05u
0-2 in K prop for -2.25u

but lets get back on the right track today.

Belt -115 over Bellinger
Soto -105 over Harper

K Prop closer to gametime as they lines aren't posted.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 04-02-2019 at 12:19 PM.
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Old 04-02-2019, 12:37 PM   #3
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

waiting on our head shopkeeper to open up so i can run down todays action. we will do an early shift when lines first post and then a later shift when lineups are out
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Old 04-02-2019, 03:55 PM   #4
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Lines taken from TheGreek

Betts -135 over Davis
Yelich -130 over Votto

Risking 2.65u

Hoping to have our head shopkeeper Poogs post his lines soon.

Other CSS'ers with local, offscreen outs please copy and paste your lines so the analysts can also work on them
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Old 04-02-2019, 03:58 PM   #5
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

now accepting applications for temp position of wrestlemania analyst
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Old 04-02-2019, 04:39 PM   #6
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I see value in these strikeout props:

Eflin o4 -115
Zimmermann u4 +145
Vargas o4.5 -130
Snell u7.5 +110
Verlander o7.5 -140
Fiers o4 -115
Gonzales (Sea) u4.5 -130

What does Poogs strikeout prop master think?

and some new TB posted:

Pham +105 over Arenado
Mancini -110 over Drury
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Old 04-02-2019, 05:02 PM   #7
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

did payperhead get rid of TB's? saw them on opening day but no more. they cranked em up to -120 too
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Old 04-02-2019, 05:09 PM   #8
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For Wrestlemania, I haven't watched it since I attended Wrestlemania 6 at a local PPV place with my dad. The satellite feed cut out in the middle of Warrior/Hogan match and there was a near riot at the theater. Tensions were already high after the Roddy Piper blackface segment since we were in a primarily urban area and we may have been the only white family there.

But here are the line movements to help the new analyst. I also have the Andre the Giant battle royal, but it's a pain to export in a meaningful way since there's so many people. The big action is on Stroman

https://pastebin.com/3A4ykVUr

Big movers: Lesnar opened at +190 and is now -125

Buddy Murphy moved from -280 to -350

Angle had a big move today from +180 to +155
Finn Bailor went from -400 to -900
Bryant +250 to +180
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Old 04-03-2019, 06:41 AM   #9
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Being a not fat, but not in shape middle aged white man who is prematurely balding, I get approached by younger people in the Vegas sports books all the time. They comment on how it looks like I've been in this game for ten years and want to hear a story from the good old days. Before people spent 9 hours a day generating DFS statistics to give them away for free or sell a subscription for $20/month instead of using the data to make money for themselves. Before Draftkings ruined the market with increased rake and scandals (can't wait to see what their sportsbook does!) and made profitable DFS players unprofitable forcing them to also flood the market with their data. Simpler times. When modelers trusted their models and risked their money on it. When we shared ideas freely on the message board only to be called names by Thremp.

After I correct them that I've been in the game for sixteen years, I tell them about the magical year of 2011. Let me set the stage first - the online sportsbook market was crumbling. It was harder to get money in, smaller books were folding or merging, several books stopped doing business with the USA, and the government was arresting people involved in bookmaking. Some people smartened up and sold their low quality sportsbooks to TheGreek and used the money to craft a narrative that they won their money through sports betting to get e-Famous and spin that into other jobs. With the dwindling USA population, how could sportsbooks attract new customers?

Enter Pinnacle Sports. While they pulled out of the USA several years earlier, they still had an army of agents who were offering access to USA players. Prior to this, they tended to focus on more traditional bets, but in 2011 that would change. I logged in MLB Opening Day 2011 and was met with a buffet of props to choose from. Some of the traditional ones like hits+runs+errors, score in the first inning, but more novel ones such as First Inning K's and Total Bases. That morning I took an unofficial position as props linesman as every morning at 10am I would adjust their lines to what I thought was fair. It was a good paying job with First Inning K's paying 164k in the first season, but my hardest day at work was with this little Total Bases prop.

July 5, 2011. Any normal day. Wake up, adjust the lines, sit at the computer monitoring the situation all day and checking to see if any other lines need adjusting, when a new prop appeared on my screen. This was odd, as up to this point they never added a prop later in the day. Hunter Pence (Astros led by Wandy Rodriguez) +105 vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates led by Jeff Karstens) -123 and the game starts in 35 minutes. Both Wandy and Karstens were having good years at this point, but according to my model Karstens was running way above expectation and was overvalued. Pence was also a much better player at the time, and my model saw a lot of value in Hunter Pence. I put in a max $1,000 bet, watched the line moved to Pence -105, hit it again down to -120 and was satistified that I made a couple hundred in expected value. Then a minute later it bounces back, Pence +105 - interesting. Reload and hit it again and it goes to -120 after one bet. Little did I know, these were the opening shots in what would become an epic war. I had a healthy bankroll at the time, but not enough to fire more than 4 or 5 shots at a 50k MLB ML and feel worried, but a 1k prop we could unload a banana clip at this thing. Over the next 30 minutes, me and an unknown soldier went back and forth moving the line a combined 48 times. As the game started we were standing there with approximately $26,000 on a prop bet.

Pence got us out to an early lead with a single in the top of the first, followed by a pop out by McCutchen. These were the times before the second you gain any value you hedge out with a live bet and be happy you made $5. When you took a stand you saw it to the end. Pence grounded out in the 4th, and McCutchen struck out on 10 pitches. 5 innings to go. McCutchen got another AB in the next inning. Wandy was tiring leading off with a walk to Karstens, but then rallied striking out the next two. A double to Matt Diaz put 2nd and 3rd with McCutchen coming up. A 3-2 fastball down the middle gets rocked by McCutchen. One foot to the right and it would have been a home run, but it's foul. We get out of the situation with hard ground out to third and a great defensive play by Chris Johnson. Top 6th, Pence singles on a ground ball to McCutchen and we are leading 2-0. McCutchen walks in the bottom of the 7th and it looks like we have this thing sealed up, Pittsburgh is up 5-1 and at home, so we just have to sweat one more inning. Pence strikes out in the top of the 8th and the Pirates go 1-2-3 in the bottom half. No comeback for the Astros in the top of the 9th and we cash approximately 27k on our 26k bet.

There were smaller skirmishes throughout the year such as taking Derrick Lee +148 over Travis Hafner down to -112 over 11 max bets only to get a push, a 14-1 victory of Pujols over Josh Hamilton that went through 23 line changes, and a 1-0 victory of Paul Konerko over Travis Hafner over 9 bets, but nothing close to the intensity of Pence vs. McCutchen.

I had immense disappointment when the 2012 season rolled around and all the non-traditional MLB props were gone. The only things left standing were HRE, To Score First, and Score in the First Inning. Occasionally during the playoffs they bring back Total Bases, but it doesn't matter. When Pinnacle executives were arrested in 2014, they cracked down on agents providing access to US players and we were forced to only bet in Vegas and through telephone with Bookmaker. Vegas offers the props, but not as frequent, with lower limits, and a bigger hold. The lines are tougher now due to the DFS crisis, but one day I hope we can return to those simpler times of 2011.

Unfortunately yesterday we went

0-1-1 in total bases for -1.05u
0-2 in K prop for -2.25u

but lets get back on the right track today.

Belt -115 over Bellinger
Soto -105 over Harper

K Prop closer to gametime as they lines aren't posted.
Great Post,ty for sharing
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Old 04-03-2019, 09:25 AM   #10
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:

Daily: 2-0-0, +2.0u
YTD: 2-0-0, +2.0u, 2.35u risked, +85.1% ROI
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Old 04-03-2019, 11:58 AM   #11
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Early slate

Cruz -135 over Soler

Risking 1.35u
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Old 04-03-2019, 12:10 PM   #12
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I swear I am not tanking this syndicate on purpose. Let's get on the right track today boys

Pham +100 over Arenado
Ramirez -125 over Abreu
Belt -105 over Bellinger
Bryant -115 over Freeman
Betts -125 over K. Davis


Marquez K u7.5 -105
Peralta K o5.5 -140

Other K closer to line ups posting

Strikeouts:
Yesterday: 2-5 -3.85
Total: 2-7 -6.1

Total Bases:
Yesterday: 0-2-2 -2.2
Overall: 0-3-3 -3.35

Really need Strikeout KING Poogs up in here
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Old 04-03-2019, 12:30 PM   #13
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

it's a no-fault zone here friend. unlike some betting groups and internet forums, we provide both expected value and emotional support in this syndicate.

how are our shopkeepers doing? it's been quiet from poogs and others. hope all is well with your girlfriend. hows your cat doing?

call out to anyone reading this. do you have access to private total bases lines from local or regional books? you know where to post them. just copy and paste into this thread and we'll help you bet.
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:46 PM   #14
MisterRodriguez
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Tom only player props? i can get down decent amounts in softs on any prop in Pinnacle,unfortunately no mlb player props in Pinny

GL

Last edited by MisterRodriguez; 04-03-2019 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 04-03-2019, 02:18 PM   #15
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Looking like we might cash the first two of the day. These are also good IMO for the afternoon strikeouts

Lucchesi (SDN) K o5.5 -125
Boyd (DET) K u4.5 +120
DeGrom K (NYN) o8.5 -125 (note: I have MIA projected striking out a lot last two games and they haven't been doing that, maybe they have been lucky)

Night games soon. See everyone at the Dodge Ram dealership
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Old 04-03-2019, 02:45 PM   #16
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Trying a new bet here

DET J.Harrison a hit YES -180

Risking 1.8u
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Old 04-03-2019, 04:31 PM   #17
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

looking to bring on a data specialist who can manage betonline players props. i've been told they offer a build your own bet player prop product we can use for total bases. as a data specialist, your duties and responsibilities will include creating several combinations of player total bases, saving them to a notepad file, and posting a link to the file here. this is a great opportunity to get started in the sports betting industry.
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Old 04-03-2019, 06:08 PM   #18
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Mike Minor K o4 +100
Miles Mikolas K o4 -115
Gerritt Cole K u8 -115

Those tools are really good apparently. They have lines that are -114 when other books have -140, etc. TomG and Betonline changing the game
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Old 04-03-2019, 06:32 PM   #19
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Total Bases late
Freeman +110 over Bryant (Greek)
Altuve -127 over Andrus (BOL)
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:19 PM   #20
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by BetOnline
WHAT HAPPENS IN A HEAD TO HEAD IN THE EVENT OF A TIE?
Head to Head bets are non-winners in the event of a tie because the bet condition is for Player A to have more than Player B. There is no return for a tie.
pushes lose.

painful lesson for us altuve backers. always read the rules especially when you're getting -114 on a bet that other books have -140. scratch bol off the list of total bases shops. i'll notify the applicants for the data specialist position that the position has been eliminated.
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:51 PM   #21
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Wow that's actually really bad considering the high percentage of ties. One year I calculated the tie % at 31% among all the bets posted at 5d

It might be good for strikeout props tho. They have much better lines than other places on some and

FOR OVER/UNDER BETS, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PLAYER'S FINAL SCORE EQUALS THEIR SET LINE?
The bet is marked as a push/draw and the wager will be refunded to user.
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:01 PM   #22
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by BetOnline
WHAT HAPPENS IN A HEAD TO HEAD IN THE EVENT OF A TIE?
Head to Head bets are non-winners in the event of a tie because the bet condition is for Player A to have more than Player B. There is no return for a tie.
Because why book in good faith when you can just scam for a living?
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:27 PM   #23
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

This is the company behind it and BetOnline (and 5D) just pay for their services

http://www.digitalsportstech.com/
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Old 04-03-2019, 09:33 PM   #24
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

<3 this
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Old 04-03-2019, 09:39 PM   #25
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I like this tom. I dont have much time to post right now but I will tomorrow. Heres my addition tonight:

Flames with first power play -115
Ducks with most penalty minutes -115

Dont love either of them.

I have rakell +105 more goals than someone but I forget who. If you look at the bets you can figure it out (using abc islands skin). I have who its against written down at my house comp but not there right now.
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