r3 weird stuff continues to to a huge failure 4-7 -3.05u
but hey, a system that spits out losers is just as good as one that spits out winners, could be the next ben the bettor
lifetime we're 20-49-2 -27.57u at -32.19% ROI for low sample weirdness, almost hard to imagine we'd run that bad just randomly picking, i'm thinking the people setting/moving the lines perhaps are basing it off actual knowledge of said golfers that isn't part of shotlink data and hence why we disagree so much and usually in the wrong direction - seems there'll be a few more low sample weirdness in r4
official r3 went almost as poorly 6-7 -2.58u
but now we're onto r4
Golfer Fair Line
Xander Schauffele -293
Justin Lower 293
0
Pat Perez -145
Justin Lower 145
0
Xander Schauffele -189
Pat Perez 189
0
Brice Garnett 112
Brandon Wu -112
0
Joseph Bramlett 114
Brandon Wu -114
0
Joseph Bramlett 112
Brice Garnett -112
0
Scott Stallings 140
Alex Noren -140
0
Mark Hubbard 147
Alex Noren -147
0
Scott Stallings -105
Mark Hubbard 105
0
Paul Barjon 153
Matthew NeSmith -153
0
Seth Reeves 157
Matthew NeSmith -157
0
Seth Reeves 108
Paul Barjon -108
0
Matt Kuchar -141
Aaron Rai 141
0
Patrick Rodgers 104
Aaron Rai -104
0
Patrick Rodgers 148
Matt Kuchar -148
0
Francesco Molinari -104
Branden Grace 104
0
Nate Lashley 109
Branden Grace -109
0
Nate Lashley 107
Francesco Molinari -107
0
Vince Whaley 141
Aaron Wise -141
0
Rory Sabbatini 127
Aaron Wise -127
0
Vince Whaley 114
Rory Sabbatini -114
0
Conrad Shindler 272
Adam Scott -272
0
Dylan Frittelli 169
Adam Scott -169
0
Dylan Frittelli -154
Conrad Shindler 154
0
Michael Thompson -139
David Skinns 139
0
Mito Pereira -194
David Skinns 194
0
Mito Pereira -139
Michael Thompson 139
0
Emiliano Grillo -102
Adam Schenk 102
0
Bill Haas 105
Adam Schenk -105
0
Emiliano Grillo -111
Bill Haas 111
0
Tom Hoge -125
Carlos Ortiz 125
0
Taylor Moore -101
Carlos Ortiz 101
0
Tom Hoge -118
Taylor Moore 118
0
Lanto Griffin -141
Callum Tarren 141
0
Chesson Hadley 126
Callum Tarren -126
0
Lanto Griffin -191
Chesson Hadley 191
0
Dustin Johnson -233
Austin Smotherman 233
0
Trey Mullinax 104
Austin Smotherman -104
0
Trey Mullinax 248
Dustin Johnson -248
0
Vaughn Taylor 122
Cameron Champ -122
0
Ian Poulter -131
Cameron Champ 131
0
Vaughn Taylor 147
Ian Poulter -147
0
Seamus Power 137
Hideki Matsuyama -137
0
Joohyung Kim 144
Hideki Matsuyama -144
0
Seamus Power -112
Joohyung Kim 112
0
Matthias Schwab 133
Marc Leishman -133
0
Peter Uihlein 145
Marc Leishman -145
0
Peter Uihlein 107
Matthias Schwab -107
0
Maverick McNealy -127
J.J. Spaun 127
0
Jason Kokrak -130
J.J. Spaun 130
0
Maverick McNealy 101
Jason Kokrak -101
0
Tyler Duncan 180
Jason Day -180
0
Keith Mitchell 109
Jason Day -109
0
Tyler Duncan 155
Keith Mitchell -155
0
Peter Malnati 105
David Lipsky -105
0
Stephan Jaeger 108
David Lipsky -108
0
Stephan Jaeger -102
Peter Malnati 102
0
Sahith Theegala -119
Adam Svensson 119
0
Kyle Wilshire 102
Adam Svensson -102
0
Sahith Theegala -121
Kyle Wilshire 121
0
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -116
Beau Hossler 116
0
Scottie Scheffler -322
Beau Hossler 322
0
Scottie Scheffler -293
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 293
0
Sepp Straka -247
Martin Trainer 247
0
Tommy Fleetwood -285
Martin Trainer 285
0
Tommy Fleetwood -115
Sepp Straka 115
0
Ryan Palmer -114
Charl Schwartzel 114
0
Davis Riley -114
Charl Schwartzel 114
0
Ryan Palmer 101
Davis Riley -101
0
Jhonattan Vegas -178
Andrew Novak 178
0
Michael Gligic 115
Andrew Novak -115
0
Michael Gligic 212
Jhonattan Vegas -212
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee -113
James Hahn 113
0
Justin Thomas -295
James Hahn 295
0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 251
Justin Thomas -251
0
Jared Wolfe -107
Dawie van der Walt 107
0
Max McGreevy -120
Dawie van der Walt 120
0
Max McGreevy -107
Jared Wolfe 107
0
Jordan Spieth 104
Joaquin Niemann -104
0
Sebastian Munoz 131
Joaquin Niemann -131
0
Sebastian Munoz 120
Jordan Spieth -120
0
Wesley Bryan 101
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -101
0
Patton Kizzire -162
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 162
0
Wesley Bryan 162
Patton Kizzire -162
i also did futures, this is very much in the trial stage of things so not even tracking this yet as i need to read up more on this and think deeper into methodology - ie do i need to sim everyone, can i just sim the leaders and approximate chance of someone 6 strokes out in the field to win?, i also don't go to the second step of playoffs but instead treat ties as null ie in one sime Munoz finishes in first place 37.3% of the time but given the high frequency of ties this gets trimmed to 29.8%
what i did on the fly was lets say there are 20k instances of 1st place finishes in the 10k sim, then i simply reduce all by half etc so if Spieth won 5k he's now 2.5k etc etc - something i just did on the fly and don't often play around with, i'm sure it's a terrible methodology but i've found before i can really start reading up on in via google scholar and really grinding out something decent i first need to struggle and play around with something total crap first so i have some frame of reference, ie i can use my crap model to think oh "i f'ed up here and there" whereas if i have no starting point it's all just over my head and i make the same mistakes anyway but this way don't learn from them
anyway, if only these guys were remaining (this goes like 6 shots from leader) then this is the fair line
Golfer Fair Line
Sebastian Munoz 236
Jordan Spieth 343
Joaquin Niemann 574
James Hahn 2797
Justin Thomas 572
K.H. Lee 4733
Charl Schwartzel 5668
Ryan Palmer 3938
Davis Riley 10506
Scottie Scheffler 1709
Beau Hossler 13504
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 28344
Stephan Jaeger 40271
David Lipsky 31188
Munoz going at 297 on pinny now seems to be good value with 18% EV
Thomas is 634 and reps 9% EV
palmer, rily/scheffler/hossler all seem to be profitable, especially scheffler, but they are still huge longshots at 2/1/6/1% to win respectively
but i think a small wager on munuz to win is good value here, mostly because spieth/niemann are a huge fan favorites, no way spieth should be favorite to win this being a stroke behind the leader and having a ton of guys nipping at his heels on a very easy course but alas pinny has him at 195 which has him winning 34% of the time, same with Niemann at 440 winning 19% whereas i got them at 23 & 15