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Old 08-28-2020, 10:47 AM   #5201
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

In our never ending Nascar modeling saga (I swear I will finish this all), lets focus on some data that usually gets overlooked: pit data.

Why is this important? Drivers can gain or lose a lot of spots on pit road. In addition to that there are several tracks where it's hard to pass, so pit road might be the only place to move up.

How can we get the data?

Lets look at one of the race results:

https://www.nascar.com/results/racec...2/stn/results/



When you view the source there's a section that has a link to a lot of json files. The two I'm interested in at lapTimes and pitStopData. This is produced for every race, what changes is the four digit race code. (in this case it's 4902). These may go sequential but COVID and rescheduling messed it up. Also the series_1 changes if you're looking at xfinity (_2) or trucks (_3).

So what type of information can we get from this pit road data? The main thing I look at is: pit stop duration and pit stop type. I count the number of top 5, top 10, top 20 pit stops for each crew and calculate the median time for all the "four_wheel_change" stops. Four wheels is the most common pit stop. There are some teams that constantly try to gain position using two tire strategies (e.g., Austin Dillon) so that could skew his median/top X.

I also keep track of how many "other" pits people make early in the race. A pit for an adjustment early on is usually an indication that they missed something on the setup. Once or twice isn't bad, but when it happens every race that is an issue.

So how do we use the lap by lap data? Well we can sync it with the pit data to calculate how many spots someone gained on/off pit road.



[this may not sum to 0 because I excluded part-time drivers]

You can also look for trends. About a month ago Truex had one of the worst pit road crews. Now he's +1 spot for the year. Some careful interpretations: people who race up the front have a harder chance to move up (less spots to gain + better drivers they're competing against). That's why you see someone like Joey Gase +23, Houff +16, Timmy Hill +31. They have less spots to go backwards.

If you look at stats like driver rating Logano is always rating high (and in my initial model back in March he was always popping as a great bet), but when I started to include more pit stop data he dropped - why? Consistently throughout the year he's been the #1 driver in lost pit road spots. I've also been killing it recently on Custer, McDowell, and Byron for the opposite reason.

I also find it interesting that Logano's crew chief is always touted as a genius, but he's been so bad this year he has Logano doing things like no tire pit stops to try and gain position.

I found this data to be very useful in XFinity and Trucks as there is a huge difference in pit crews there. People like Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton are making their seasons based on their elite pit crews. They're regularly 2-3 seconds faster than everyone else. In Trucks Gilliland, Hill, Crafton, Creed, Moffitt, and Zane are the elite crews.

Using this info could make watching races more interesting too. I set up http://motorsportsodds.com/pitstop/ which will populate live during the race.

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 08-28-2020 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 08-28-2020, 10:59 AM   #5202
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

btw if the mlbodds page wasn't an elaborate troll job, I'll happily apply to compete with rajiv to help with it
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Old 08-28-2020, 11:04 AM   #5203
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

It was ruining too many peoples livelihoods who depend on $50 props. Got too many angry people messaging me. Can't destroy the ecosystem. They filter up by creating phantom back injuries for golfers and allows books to offer bad golf lines at high limits.
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Old 08-28-2020, 11:27 AM   #5204
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Thinking about how we can improve our model:

People like Harvick shouldn't be penalized for having less spots to gain. We should create a new statistic that incorporates the position they enter the pit and considers how many spots they have to gain/lose. i.e., gaining 1 spot from 2nd to 1st should be more important than going from 20th to 19th.

Other ideas: Something like "held spot inside the top 10, top 5". A +0 spots inside the top 5 is a very valuable thing.
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Old 08-28-2020, 01:47 PM   #5205
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Here's my probably worthless take. Let's create a table for how many "adjusted spots" going from X+1 to X is worth for each X. So 20th to 19th might be worth 0.4 whereas 2nd to 1st is worth more. I like the idea of using exp(-c*X), where c is a constant, to build this table. Notice if c = 0 all spots are worth 1 spot like before. Picking a decent value for c seems tough. Using desmos and sliding around the value for c seems like it should be somewhere between 0 and 0.1. Not sure how to pick the best one other than sampling a bunch of random ones, training the model using that value for c, and picking the value for c that minimizes out of sample loss.
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Old 08-28-2020, 01:59 PM   #5206
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Another possible function exp(-c*X) + d where d is constant, so that every spot gain is worth at least d since exp(-c*X) goes really small when X gets really big.
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Old 08-28-2020, 02:32 PM   #5207
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

And just realized d can be arbitrary nonzero value. Doesn't matter how you initialize it. Can always tweak c to make the new function just a scaled version.
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Old 08-31-2020, 07:01 PM   #5208
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i'll try those. i came up with some "bands" based on some stats and also gonna try different weights depending on the band the pass occurs in

Anyone still go TB? It and K have been pretty good this year. 2 weeks ago MLB in general was horrible but I'm glad I bet it. Here's what I got today what you guys think

Lowe +114 over DJ LeMahieu
Ozuna -120 over Bogaerts
Verdugo +125 over Swanson
Whit Merrified -105 over Hernandez
Dozier +140 over Jose Ramirez
Soler +125 over Lindor
(if it isn't clear I'm big on the Royals +220 today. second biggest bet of the season, I also like Bieber u8.5K +120))
Cruz +115 over Abreu
Rosario -105 over Luis Robert
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Old 08-31-2020, 07:16 PM   #5209
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

side note on royals love today

last year we hated bieber every game and he always crushed us. expect nothing different today
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Old 08-31-2020, 08:18 PM   #5210
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

31 pitches for Brad Keller in the first. Exactly how we planned it.
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Old 08-31-2020, 09:18 PM   #5211
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Could be worse. You could have been dumb enough to bet MIL in a Game 1. {I did not}
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Old 08-31-2020, 09:42 PM   #5212
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Kellers really dominating. Too bad he wasted so many pitches in the first.
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Old 08-31-2020, 10:57 PM   #5213
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

never any doubt on the Royals

Indians one of the best teams in baseball
with the probable cy young winner on the mound
Royals one of the worst teams in the league

How did we just do what we just did

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 08-31-2020 at 11:07 PM.
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Old 08-31-2020, 11:08 PM   #5214
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
i'll try those. i came up with some "bands" based on some stats and also gonna try different weights depending on the band the pass occurs in

Anyone still go TB? It and K have been pretty good this year. 2 weeks ago MLB in general was horrible but I'm glad I bet it. Here's what I got today what you guys think

Lowe +114 over DJ LeMahieu
Ozuna -120 over Bogaerts
Verdugo +125 over Swanson
Whit Merrified -105 over Hernandez
Dozier +140 over Jose Ramirez
Soler +125 over Lindor
(if it isn't clear I'm big on the Royals +220 today. second biggest bet of the season, I also like Bieber u8.5K +120))
Cruz +115 over Abreu
Rosario -105 over Luis Robert
i think we lost every one except the verdugo?

this is pretty impressive considering those were also my big ML bets today

TB +140 over NYA
ATL -185 over BOS
KCA +220 over CLE
MIN +105 over CHA

it appears winning ML bets is negatively correlated with total bases

game against the game, not within IMO
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Old 09-01-2020, 01:13 PM   #5215
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Sucks losing by half a K on those Unders. Got your boy Nola pitching tonight, not hot although pretty humid so far. 8K in his start last week v WAS.
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Old 09-01-2020, 07:47 PM   #5216
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I had Nola for 6.43 projected K's and he's got 4 through 2.2 so looking good. There's some pitchers I always seem to get wrong (Woodruff, Bieber), but then there's some pitchers I never get wrong. It's always hard are those extremes just variance or am I missing something
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Old 09-01-2020, 08:23 PM   #5217
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

SF over Col is my big bet of the day. So that means bet SF and take all the COL players in total bases
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Old 09-01-2020, 08:53 PM   #5218
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/nev...u663Jw.twitter

lol there's 0 reason to live in vegas in about 2 years when every sportsbook is william hill

william hill at the cosmo. what a world
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Old 09-01-2020, 10:58 PM   #5219
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

13-2. I'm going to call it. Great job guys. We did it.
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:38 AM   #5220
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/nev...u663Jw.twitter

lol there's 0 reason to live in vegas in about 2 years when every sportsbook is william hill

william hill at the cosmo. what a world

Oh no not good. Vegas still has those VP promos like the one you chased at Four Queens and Binions.
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Old 09-02-2020, 09:45 AM   #5221
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I'm all VP'd out after playing for 4 hours. Going to have to wait until next year when I get the urge to degen.
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Old 09-02-2020, 11:48 AM   #5222
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
I had Nola for 6.43 projected K's and he's got 4 through 2.2 so looking good. There's some pitchers I always seem to get wrong (Woodruff, Bieber), but then there's some pitchers I never get wrong. It's always hard are those extremes just variance or am I missing something
Yeah 9 Ks, throw out the one bad start and he's had 12-10-8-8-9 when he's gone more than 3 IP.
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Old 09-02-2020, 11:49 AM   #5223
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

The South Philly Race and Sports book is open next to the stadiums, run by the Parx guys, for those who didn't know. Former SoPhilly Turf Club.
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Old 09-02-2020, 03:50 PM   #5224
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

anyone doing the football contests this year? i never do them because so top heavy but circa is gonna be a 2 mil + overlay

gonna enter some Crowdsource Syndicate lineups for us today.

hope you'll all join us in holding up the check at the end.
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Old 09-02-2020, 04:46 PM   #5225
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Damn might have to risk getting covid for that kind of overlay.
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