I wrote a model for betting on pure LoL moneylines this season and finished w a ~6% roi for the 4 major regions. I've put my code for scraping Oracles Elixir and Oddsportal (for historical data) on my github here - https://github.com/jacobyam/LCSDataScraper. I havent found the time to look at kill distributions, but things like First Blood, First Dragon, First tower all seem like markets that are likely inefficient and I'd like to work more on them.

The code isnt perfect because I thought it was only me that was going to be using it, but I can make it prettier if people are interested. Also I have a scraper for gol.gg that isnt up there if people want that too.

yeah but that's a lot of work when you can just outsource it all to some 11 year old in chat who wants to show everyone how smart he is and then bet upon his genius

seriously though, that sounds great, you and jskelts should seriously collaborate - i'm down to help with some of the menial aspects of it all

I like Nepo +155 over Nakamura in the Magnus chess tournament. My reasoning is that I'm just better than Pinnacle at pricing chess lines.

new eSims scandal incoming?
This was all in the last 2 hours
Smaller limits ($200 max), but they run ~6-7 of these an hour

What are you talking about, this is a SPAC deal that closed Dec 23rd. It's not a spinout merely a name change of the SPAC acq firm Diamond Acquisition to Draftkings. This has all been known for 4 months.

is it these guys https://www.twitch.tv/primetimeactionnba

3 good-to-great TEs won the Eagles a Super Bowl so this makes sense, start with 10, find the right 3, profit.

Hell one of those TEs even threw a TD pass on 4th and 1 if you hadn't heard.

https://www.twitch.tv/fonbet_ufc

currently riding a 19-0 streak with a +160, +135, +210, +270, +140, +110 in there

so business as usual

Taking only +155 against the top-rated blitz player in the world with Nepo, as opposed to Carlsen or a great blitz talent like MVL seems like a clear error. I'd have needed around 2-1 to take Ian.

Even Carlsen needed an armageddon game to beat Naka.

21 ufc fight streak is over

sorry guys 21-1 is unacceptable

the scam must be dead

Anyone see eNascar H2H odds? An interesting thing - Byron is starting at the back but is overwhelming favorite to win the race. I think he's a horrible play on FD too but good at DK due to place differential

Guess they don't exist, but some To Wins

I hit Parker Kligerman +1200
Hamlin +1100
Earnhardt Jr +800
cassill +2200

Betonline had like 5 with $100 limit no re-bet I believe.

Denny Hamlin gets in a wreck and then decides to use his reset to go and crash random people because he's angry.

Please bring real sports back.

Denny Hamlin’s screen went out on his monitor and he crashed into the wall.

I hate when that happens.

so to confirm, these are not the russians?

Also went w/ Byron on DK & faded on FD with them not rewarding place differential. Got tripped up by them saying they would flip starters 1-10, and then deciding at the last minute to not do that. Need real sports back so we can see some humans make arbitrary decisions live instead of this bs.

primetimeaction is bookmaker, so costa rican

i was big on labonte too and that last crash hurt. Got a lot of PReece on DK which should be good. Have to wait 2 hours now to find out results

fading byron on FD worked out, we did it

Westgate App is reopening May 7. Just in time to lose tons at UFC

who has the sharpest lines for nicaraguan basketball?

pph shops will likely see more sharp money than the screen here

Clyde Edwards-Helaire total yardage prop opened at 950 yards.

Seems incredibly low for a 1st round RB with elite receiving ability. +900 to win OROY too. A lot of value there.

Tua Tagovailoa INT O/U opened at 18 and is already down to 15.5. Might still be decent value in that. Fitzmagic is still in town and even if Tua does end up starting, he's known as a smart QB who takes care of the ball.

back to report my "watch the plebs chatter during the draft" strategy has been very effective and got a bunch more winning bets in on some underdogs who ended up winning handedly

furthermore, i noticed can still lodge a bet on each individual match a few minutes into it - usually that's too early to have any idea but sometimes one team gets off to a big lead in the first few minutes and the way lol advantages spiral out of control that can be huge

and of course put in a few bets on whether it'd be 5 games or less than 5 games and on the o/u and literally 0/8 on those so just going to stick to the pleb draft chatter and betting more if they get a big early lead which is something like 11/13 matches thus far - pretty insane

doing very small units because this is my acr no deposit challenge, would be much healthier if i didn't confuse those sims with the russian sims and just blindly bet against the steam - whoops

What do you NFL sharps think about these RSW win bets. Am I stupid for locking up 20k for 7 months when the season might be shortened or even cancelled?

Atlanta u7.5 +110
Horrible draft. They tried to fix their D, picked one of the worst available CB's in the 1st round, took a DE that they're going to have to change his position and then took a bunch of special teamers. This is the end of the Ryan/Julio era IMO.

Detroit o6 -115
They didn't have a good draft (Considering all the top picks they had), but they did shore up their run D and line, plus the Packers should go 0-16 after LaFleur is tanking the team.

Redskins u5.5 -115
Didn't add anything useful outside of Chase Young, tough division, tough schedule (Pit, NFC West, Ravens), they're the Redskins. Negative might be their last two games are against Cincy and Carolina.

Denver o7.5 -115
Good draft, traded for Bouye and Jurrell Casey. Has two receivers to help Sutton. Might be the most improved team.