Other downside to the tournament is that you have to spend multiple days in New Jersey. They even advertise it as "minutes from New York" because they know no one wants to be in NJ. That cancels out all the positive expected value.

big XFL news: Aaron Murray is out Saturday

I don't know if this is good or bad for Tampa. Quinton Flowers (their RB) is the backup.

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Al Shabab (KSA) +0.5/1 (Asian) @ 2,00

Turkey Super League


Corners: Beşiktaş JK +0.5 corners (Asian) @ 1.87

Saves Daily: 4-4-0, -0.53u
Saves YTD: 24-17-5, +4.36u, 53.32u risked, +8.2% ROI

I'm happy with SOGs for the stud players who show up in the daily SOG props. But I'm thinking for the 3rd and 4th liners who still make up a large percentage of team total SOGs, the baseline to which I'm regressing toward is too high. This is the classic projection system issue. To what baseline do we regress toward? League average? Replacement level? Back in the day, Nate Silver's PECOTA projections crushed by using a basic similarity score metric for his baseline.

With betting, as it is in life, when things don't line up with expectations whether that's with the market lines or the realized results, it's a sign we need to improve.

Early Saves

WPG Connor Hellebuyck u27.5 -107
SJS Aaron Dell u28.5 -120

my pinny skin hasnt had nhl props at all in a couple days. After spending an entire saturday making my new model and trying it out for ONE day. Does anyone else have a similar issue?

I was only using Betonline and recently just opened accounts with 5dimes and Intertops.
I can only find the kind of props that TomG is doing, to my surprise, I'm still pretty new, on Betonline. I don't know what I'm not seeing, missing with the other sites. And, Betonline only offers overs on saves!

TomG, we need to know where we can find these props, should open accounts. Please

BetOnline player props is using bet builder, you need to click the over/under button to see it otherwise they only show you overs

Wow, I feel so stupid now. It was in front of me the whole time

Thanks a lot.

Still can't find player props on 5dimes, but anyways. This is good start.

I'm working on over/under corners for soccer right now. If I have any success this weekend, I'll share results and thoughts.
Gotta give and not only take!

I know esports is a meme around here but it seems like thats how the books also feel about it. They accidentally opened this weeks favorites at -123 for every match and let me bet that line. G2/Fnatic/Rogue all closed at -350 or bigger favorites (G2 and Fnatic ended -625 and -769) but I was able to get them at -123 for the max and get paid out. I'm not sure how much free EV they just gifted me but I'll take it.

Added plays

CAR Petr Mrazek u25.5 -102
PIT Tristan Jarry o28.5 -119

Saves Daily: 1-3-0, -2.29u
Saves YTD: 25-20-5, +2.07u, 57.8u risked, +3.6% ROI

TomG, I think this is a great bet, but I don't like the under so much.
I have no idea about your model, so forgive my ignorance, but I think it should be focused on the over.

Looks like we'll have to step up our game:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/press/...nt-partnership

We are the market leaders on XFL

except for some reason they market turned on our Guardians bet pushing them to +7.

One added play, NY/DC u46.5 + 101

I really think NY is just gonna play a super slow game.

Hey, the money isn't any less green. Nice job there pal. I'd love to figure out esports but I only know a little about dota and only really watch the one big major all year. Seems easy though, like you said the books set a line based on essentially power ratings and records, but the true chances can be way different. IMO momentum is alot more important in esports, maybe because it's more mental than physical. So when a team is playing well together, they're harder to derail.

Iowa! Extra CBB YTD: 15-16

Robert Morris -6

If NY is this bad then how bad are the projected 7.5 wins Tampa Bay?

Lets roll with 2H u21.5 -110

NY losing those guys on their o-line are obviously causing problems. McGloin is running away right after the snap. NY Red Zone D is good so lot of FG's. No hope NY covers but maybe?

line is now u21 -130

take that action network

Iowa Extra! CBB YTD: 15-17

Navy +2

Looking like 2-1 since NY is horrible.

Gonna add on TB/SEA o44 -105

Lets end the day at least 4-1 (depending on 2H)

Curious how much you project buying off the 21 worth there?

Seems like there aren’t really any key numbers when they miss half the extra points.

I think it might actually vary by team due to the XP thing. DC seems to go for one almost every time (Which is stupid) whereas other teams seem to go for 2 and others switch it up.

Probably not enough data so just bet anything due to it being a lock (unless DC scores here and NY gets a random TD Then it's not a lock)