It's funny because in finance land the touts are 'analysts' who have strong buy/buy/neutral/sell [almost never] and price targets lol and everyone knows they're usually horrid touts & the talented analysts /PMs who know what stocks to buy and sell end up going to work at hedge funds and don't give away info.

Like...if you really thought PTON or CMG was going to double or more, why wouldn't you just buy it? Why would you ever work for a bank that will literally bar you from buying it if you analyze it better than the competition. You can even start a one stock/one idea fund like Ackman or Paulson [or morph into one like Burry] if you can convince enough millionaires to bankroll you and take 20% plus expenses.

winthrop with the last second three pointer to cover

which is great because it might be the only bet we win today.

going to have to bridge jump on 2H Michigan/Illinois o74 with the 1k limit

for the tout thing, i think what happened in DFS at least is some people who were marginal winners started touting, then people were getting smarter making big winners into smaller winners, so they started touting to maintain the same income, repeat until people like will fuller are 30% owned even though they played the season horribly up to that point

for sports betting 99.9% touts are losers

youtube is infested with all these finance gurus now

a mate of mine nearly shelved out 5k for a private lesson with grant cardone like a tard

a quick google search is all you need to realise how scummy they all are but millions of people still getting hooked

I remember back in the day thinking richdadpoordad was the man until you realise all his money came from the tv show

You guys are forgetting that with uncapped affiliate deals, the touts were making millions. That era is over but if you have a large enough referral pool you still make a good living.

Remember when the sites capped them there was a huge outcry and lots of people who set up a "how do a play DFS" website that they hadn't updated in years were livid that they were no longer receiving 20-30k a month but now like 2k.

Can only imagine what the big boys like rotogrinders were hauling in as an affiliate.

I haven't looked at the numbers, but someone who tracks results and posts to twitter says a decent amount of those touts have lost money historically. The conclusion to draw is that playing heavy volume as a slight loser gets the occasional "big wins" you need to for marketing so your losses are viewed as cheap advertising.

Alex Baker ran up his volume heavily to get "#1 ranking" on rotogrinders and then cut it back down dramatically once he achieved that claim for marketing his new site. I'm not making a claim regarding whether he's profitable or not because I have idea but there's enough circumstantial evidence to support both theories.

Then you have rotogrinders promoting the hell out of a 100k win someone had 4 years ago and yet if you do the math you'll see they played 5k in entries. It really begs the question of why they choose to repeatedly mention that instead of something newer given that a winning player doing $5k a night in baseball has to do that at least once per year just to break even. Is he losing his shirt? Are they just lazy choosing to repeatedly hype that but not something newer? Is he even playing heavy volume still?

a lot of scams make money

so what?

nfl week 15

https://pastebin.com/fRrxz1C6

last thursday night football of the season prop money. go hard or don't

the bridge jumping barely worked, but was unnecessary because all the late games came in to get us un-crushed for the day unless the knicks somehow blow this like the OKC Thunder almost did

we did get one NCAAB Extra for tomorrow. I bet Southern at +17 and it went to +14.5, but it's still available as +17 in some places. Lets get crushed on it

I was just pointing out that the passive income potential from touting was large enough that the act of touting itself didn't mean the tout in question wasn't a highly skilled tout.

Most are frauds but if Sigs and tomg could could earn 20% of all the lifetime vig of anyone who looked at their picks and clicked the link they included underneath to make the bet they would probably post more frequently, in more locations and there'd be a whole lot more people doing it

Just like how Polk has easily earned more money passively though upswing than by actively playing the felt

no never

tomg and i been doing this 15+ years and never took a dime or solicited one

could have just added affiliate links to squaresportsbetting.com or Iowa! could have made millions off of themoneylinejournal but we could never live with ourselves

getting sued by oprah over berries or inventing a pill that breaks science and includes all the nutrients of a salad is okay tho

RIP Salad Pill

it seems the new owner got rid of the domain and it got snatched up by someone else. I hope he didn't sell my proprietary science

https://web.archive.org/web/20120620...saladpill.com/

never forget

poor Kevin has no options now

Have you ever heard of Monish Pabrai? He is one of my investing heros. I really liked his book The Dhandho Investor

I don't understand how some of these probabilities are getting calculated for the pushable lines like o1 and u1 interceptions.

Looking at Rodgers interceptions (filtering out o0.5 and o1)
u0.5, u1, u1.5, o1.5
60.65, 75.82, 90.98, 9.02

This seems to imply the following probabilities
P(I=0) = P(u0.5) = 60.65
P(I=1) = P(u1.5)-P(0) = 90.98-60.65 = 30.33
P(I>=2) = P(o1.5) = 9.02

Shouldn't then the probability for u1 be 60.65/(60.65+9.02) = 87.05? P(I=0) divided by P(I!=1) which is P(I=0)+P(I>=2)? But u1 is only 75.82? Am I misunderstanding something here?

lol **** is robert kyosaki a marketer only?


i even bought his table game rich dad poor dad back in the day


disappointing,consumed all his content for a decade or so

oh yep the probability of aaron rodgers throwing at most 1 interception is 90.97 P(I=0) +P(I=1) and the probability rodgers throws at least 1 interceptions is 39.35% 1-P(I=0) or in this case 1-P(I < 0.5) since it can only take on integer values

but then the problem becomes what's the fair line on Rodgers o/u 1 interception?

If you go by setting the under at -1007.05 (90.97%) and the over at +154.13 (39.35%), that's way too much probability and also a line you never see. So I have a patent pending process to fix this (it's actually too simple and probably causes errors, but this doesn't happen to me in full game betting so it's a new thing i've been tinkering with since i got into props this year) and that is why P(I < 1) is 75.82 and not 90.97%. but a line of -313 (75.82%) and +313 (24.18%) seems more legit.

so the at most 1 there is actually the fair line of over 1 but it's easier to put probabilities to calculate edge for people who can't max it instead of spitting it out as lines

If anyone has a way to deal with that issue I'd love to hear. Maybe we can figure it out because I think my method is half assed, but it worked really well for K's (i.e., profitable) so I didn't bother changing it.

NBA Props Dec 12:

https://pastebin.com/68dkXQGG

Yesterday was looking like a disaster with props, but Donovan Mitchell, Steven Adams, Ingram, and Hield came up big to get us even and then Barnes getting a rebound with 1.4 seconds left secured a small profit. Doesn't seem like a lot of available bets out there. Only found 6 assist bets and 13 for rebounds.

I didnt have much of him but sick Ovechkin bagel last night

Option A: Wake up at 4:45 AM, sit in a chair for 14 hours and make millions if you do your job well and things go your way.

Option B: Wake up at Noon, film 3 minute Instagram video talking nonsense next to a rented Ferrari, do some blow and bang washed up golf channel host for the rest of the day and make millions no matter what.

I'd say we're definitely doing it wrong.

He's sucked for years. Just another "I'm like Warren Buffett" value-investor scam, write a book, suck in stupid investors.

https://www.tipranks.com/hedge-funds/mohnish-pabrai

Up 22.5% total since June 2013-Sept 2019. Average HF up 74%,
S+P 500 up 152% over the same time frame.

If I only made 23% over a 6.5 yr bull run, I'd quit life and live in a wax town.

Started out hot on Capela and Jaylen rbs and Harden, Hayward, Sabonis, Russ assists last night 6-0 before coming back to earth but still profitable. 300 max though.

What books do you get offering all the NBA props for 300 limits... Seems all I get anywhere is 50 or 10.00 on 5d

I got 500 max on 2 books. It used to be three but then two days ago happened. I have to be careful I don't lose another as I need this to put my children through college.


Bookmaker has the total sacks prop again after not offering it for weeks.

u5.5 -125

I have u5.5 at 64.843%

Jim Cramer was the best scam artist. He became popular when you could blindly pick stocks and make tons of money and somehow people still listen to him years later.

here's what i got

Lamar Jackson u17.5 Pass complete -115
Robby Anderson u3.5 Receptions -105
Marquise Brown o0.5 TD 250
Sam Darnold u34.5 Pass attempts -115
Lamar Jackson o25.5 Pass attempts -101
Marquise Brown u3.5 Receptions -125
Sam Darnold o219.5 Passing yards 100
Lamar Jackson o188.5 Passing yards -105
Willie Snead IV o14.5 Receiving yards -115
BAL/NYJ u5.5 Sacks -125

Interesting. A quick and dirty way to get a probability is to count the total sacks forced and allowed by both teams (Baltimore: 33 forced, 24 allowed; NYJ 29 forced; 47 allowed) and divide by the games played (13 for both).

133 total sacks, or 5.11 average per game. A Poisson suggests it's only 59.6% on the under 5.5; still a good bet but quite a ways from 64.8%. In the past, simple approaches like that are more than most sportsbooks do, and were enough to win.

You might get better answers with an NFL database; how does the (huge) spread affect sacks? Maybe NYJ gives up by the 4th quarter in a lot of games, and runs the clock out (lowering the sacks).

I don't really bet props anymore; I'm looking for somewhat higher volume. It's an interesting problem though, I'm curious how you got your number, even in very general terms.

First draft of Yahoo! NHL DFS Syndicate

Position Player
G Andrei Vasilevskiy
G John Gibson
C Mark Scheifele
C Blake Wheeler
W Evander Kane
W Kyle Connor
W Nikolaj Ehlers
D Justin Schultz
D Brent Burns

So just stack the two biggest favs? Seems easy

We're very similar except, just had to make some changes with no rinne and awaiting final confirmation of some goalies but right now

Murray
Gibson
Couture (love hertl too at $18)
Wheeler
Meier
Guentzel
Connor
Schultz
Burns (also love rielly/Barrie/dumba/Karlsson)

Real decision points come for later slates where I,
pay up for 2nd goalie and work in rakell and Kessel at wing with some Toronto mixed in despite heavy risk they entail tonight

daringly,

I dunno man. Maybe something like pressure rates and pass attempts have something to do with it. That calc you just made basically confirms what everyone says about you. FFS.

I actually felt secondhand embarrassment reading J7's post.

Since in a u1 or o1 bet it's a push if it lands on 1 don't we just throw out all results where it lands on 1? So P(u1 hits) = P(I<0.5)/(1-P(I=1)) i.e. the chance of getting 0 divided by the chance of getting any number besides 1. And P(o1 hits) = P(I>1.5)/(1-P(I=1))