Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting - Page 102 - Sports Betting

Where are those lines taken from?

I'm wondering if unlike other sports maybe for hockey there is no game within the game. People just skate around chasing the puck and smashing into each other and so Game Within The Game Theory doesn't apply here?

Quote

12-07-2019 , 04:18 PM

#2527

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Late slate added plays

NJD Kyle Palmieri u2.5 -151
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +153
CGY Rasmus Andersson u1.5 +113

Quote

12-07-2019 , 05:03 PM

#2528

ILikeToParty

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,496

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

sure. it's assists and rebounds been killing it this year

thanks, gonna ride all the SOGs too lol

Quote

12-07-2019 , 05:13 PM

#2529

Deeply Miserable

banned

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 706

rick,

Yeah, I heard the rake was a giant mess. I agree with the huge entries having more dead money now that they've restricted entries.

n00b,

wp.

Quote

12-07-2019 , 07:47 PM

#2530

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

new online book i found that has access to BetBuilder

Got to cali in time to start the process for tomorrow and get some goalie saves in. They're also a lot of overs, so alignment with SoG theory.

all -115

Bobrovsky u28.5
Mrazek o25.5
Domingue u29.5
Binnington u29.5 ** (this one seems like big one of the day)
Campbell o26.5
Andersen o27.5
Bishop o26
Stalock u29

Quote

12-07-2019 , 08:39 PM

#2531

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

Late slate added plays

NJD Kyle Palmieri u2.5 -151
NSH Calle Jarnkrok u1.5 +153
CGY Rasmus Andersson u1.5 +113

Do not like this jarnkrok under, not because I disagree on the value, nor do I think he's necessarily good, but because he's close to min priced so I'm nearly 100% on him tonight

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable

rick,

Yeah, I heard the rake was a giant mess. I agree with the huge entries having more dead money now that they've restricted entries.

n00b,

wp.

Yeah, I think long term future is gpp instead of cash as both easier to get action and more dead money

Quote

12-07-2019 , 08:41 PM

#2532

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

Binnington gave up 4 goals in 13 minutes

maybe they will pull him

edit: Pulled. easy $$

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 12-07-2019 at 08:47 PM.

Quote

12-07-2019 , 08:59 PM

#2533

ILikeToParty

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,496

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

Binnington gave up 4 goals in 13 minutes

maybe they will pull him

edit: Pulled. easy $$

!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

12-08-2019 , 12:49 AM

#2534

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

What you guys think a fair line would have been on the lightning winning 7-1 and Kucherov not recording a point nor gaining any +/-?

Quote

12-08-2019 , 12:51 AM

#2535

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Spoiler:

Daily: 3-5-0, -2.78u
YTD: 155-156-1, -14.88u, 375.59u risked, -4.0% ROI

I would say back to sucking at this except I was never actually good so I hope you can pick up my slack rsigley.

Quote

12-08-2019 , 12:54 AM

#2536

ILikeToParty

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,496

keep fighting tomg

Quote

12-08-2019 , 04:38 AM

#2537

Hammerzitzen

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 233

TomG you didnt make that sick ass cup for nothing

Quote

12-08-2019 , 09:26 AM

#2538

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i didn't do much better
went 6-6 -0.25u on SOG and 2-6 on goalie saves lol. gonna stop for a while and ifgure out what's wrong. maybe hockey is unsolvable.

updated final nfl stats for week based on injuries, etc.

https://pastebin.com/CVeqUjtw

good luck everyone

Quote

12-08-2019 , 09:50 AM

#2539

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

i think you guys are doing fine simply based off this http://www.ecmlpkdd2013.org/wp-conte...bmission_2.pdf

there's just way more variance in hockey than the other sports, but i think this is what makes it profitable because it keeps out a lot of the more risk-averse people

i think this is why nhl and soccer are relatively sharp free because they burnout from the frustratingly high variance

Quote

12-08-2019 , 10:24 AM

#2540

cockandbull

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,616

Rsigley,

Any chance of an NBA pastebin for today?

The NFL pastebin comes up as yesterdays NBA for me.

Quote

12-08-2019 , 10:35 AM

#2541

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

big update to nfl, use this one

https://pastebin.com/6xY69NTM

Quote

12-08-2019 , 10:54 AM

#2542

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickroll

This is wrong

Quote

12-08-2019 , 11:00 AM

#2543

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by lvr

This is wrong

the article or my following statement?

i didn't actually read that article (well it's possible I have) but just went to google scholar and typed "luck hockey" because i knew there have been many studies on it so it's possible i shared a bad one but unless I'm grossly informed, hockey has a greater luck factor than other sports

i actually thought about editing to mention i was specifically talking about dfs

I actually believe higher variance would actually be good for props - just super frustrating at the early stages when you're still workshopping it due to sample sizes - but i'm a sports betting virgin so honestly have no idea

could you elaborate?

Quote

12-08-2019 , 11:21 AM

#2544

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

All of it

Variance just depends on edge

Quote

12-08-2019 , 11:42 AM

#2545

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by lvr

All of it

Variance just depends on edge

do you care to elaborate? so you think that hockey doesn't have more variance or that it does but is immaterial to our purposes?

forgive me if i misinterpret your statements, but we need to improve our efficiency here

Quote

12-08-2019 , 11:50 AM

#2546

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

I'll never give it, the challenge is too great. I just feel bad for you guys having to watch me fumble around in the process.

CHI Brandon Saad o2.5 +143
ARI Derek Stepan o2.5 +148
ARI Conor Garland o2.5 +112
WPG Blake Wheeler o2.5 +111
WPG Nikolaj Ehlers o2.5 -101
ANA Ondrej Kase o2.5 +125

Quote

12-08-2019 , 11:57 AM

#2547

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

What has more variance, hitting black in roulette at fair odds 48% or Evander Kane o3.5 +125 when I predict fair odds of +108? Snarky answers are OK.

What if I told you the roulette ball bounced 100 times before settling on red/black instead of 20 times? Would that change your estimate of the variance?

Quote

12-08-2019 , 01:18 PM

#2548

cockandbull

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,616

[QUOTE=rickroll;55653626]do you care to elaborate? so you think that hockey doesn't have more variance or that it does but is immaterial to our purposes?

forgive me if i misinterpret your statements, but we need to improve our efficiency here

[/QUOTE

Variance in relation to your edge is the same across all sports. looks like you got the wrong end of the stick.

Quote

12-08-2019 , 01:30 PM

#2549

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by cockandbull

Variance in relation to your edge is the same across all sports. looks like you got the wrong end of the stick.

I never meant to imply that more variance meant no edge nor did I say that. Just said that it makes it harder to predict but everyone is dealing with the same randomness so it shouldn't hurt the edge but it sure as hell increases the sample size before you can realize your equity if it's there.

Quote

12-08-2019 , 01:35 PM

#2550

cockandbull

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,616

im not sure what you mean when you say 'I never meant to imply that more variance meant no edge'...

what i am suggesting is, your variance should be the same across any sport if you have 5% egde at +100

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