Giolito did us dirty. Gets 7th K and then walks in a run to get pulled. It's our fault for doubting him, I'm sorry. Lets get that BOS ML tho since he can't win

damn baez didn't adjust for the wind going out and threw the ball into the outfield instead of to the second baseman which led to 2 runs

i hope that doesn't mess things up

Boston ties it up!

We root for the syndicate even when we don't have bets down for karma.

Edit: and karma works! as Keller is forced to exit with 4Ks thru 3 innings due to the rain delay. U4 pushes. See, these things really do all even out.

Yankees just broke the record from the 2002 rangers for consecutive games with a homerun.


Which begs the question...

TomG, do we resurrect the Rangers -2.5 system, with Yankees -2.5?

Imagine having Yankees -2.5 today though.

lol that's like having the Under 9 last night in the St. Louie game.

sigs, to you bet live-lines?

like the Yanks game at one point in the 5th was 6.5(-140 iirc)

the juice sux, but in that ballpark with that lineup, even with a generally weak-hitting opponent.

shoulda pounded it

Not including today

NYA
Home: 16-23-0 (41.03%) 13.83u
Away: 11-23 (32.35%) -1.92u

If our unit was one million dollars we would have a lot of millions if we bet Yankees -2.5

Lucky one on the Cubs total and Red Sox. That wind added probably 2 runs to the Cubs total as they were (thankfully) solo home runs that probably would have been fly outs otherwise. Most of the runs came on a series of singles though.

Baseball's a crazy beast tho. Pomeranz is dominating Colorado with 9 K's in 4 innings, but two bad pitches and he's down 2-0. Gray usually falls apart in the 5th or 6th though, so we got that.

And Greinke dominating after a poor 1st which is what he always does.

No live as a couple years ago I bet a couple at max on some sportsbooks and all of a sudden was limited to $3. And live betting in Vegas sucks until Deck Prism Sports comes and saves us all.

lol ur blessed

comeback activated courtesy of Tapia losing it in the lights.. was hard-hit tho

do u support yourself solely from betting?

yes for 15 years

TomG and I were machine learning before it was popular and use it to live lavish lives with medium popcorn at the movie theater. We share it, but free refills. Makes no sense to buy two of them.

What about their sports projections are fantastic? Are you betting them against the market and killing it? If not, maybe their sports projections actually suck?

That's actually completely wrong. 538 had 3 different publicly available models: now-cast, polls-only and polls-plus. Now-cast was their projection if the election were held on that date based on recent pols, polls-only was a model using only polls and polls-plus was a model using polls, historical data, state of the economy, etc. Silver said polls-plus was the most accurate and what he would use to bet if he were a betting man (lol). The lowest his projection ever got on Trump on polls-plus was 15.4%. So your idea that he would have said something like that is not only wrong but idiotic. I also have a recollection of him lambasting the media in October of 2016 for calling the election over. Again, not someone who would say "oh about 10 percent and that's being generous". You clearly have an issue with Silver's politics (they're not mine either) that is clouding your judgment here. There's plenty to take issue with for 538 but this is way off the mark.

not a machine learning guy. may be one day. im mostly just a low stakes props bettor unworthy of originating full game lines and is why i don't deserve movie theater popcorn.

is the smart one

Paid someone to develop a neural network for him over 12 years ago when it was a new idea in sports betting. Still makes money using the model to this day. And is a semi successful tout.

He doesn't have the best results, but I think he's been a winner every year in every sport except MLB. He did really good in the Supercontest a couple years ago too.

Damn getting thrown out at home. How do we model stupid base running from the Giants.

At least Arizona is getting tacos and we getting a win

beat market by 30 cents? lose

this is why i think the approach of making hundreds of bets a day is better in long run

two RSIF appeared before first pitch, both win and cancel out K loss and HRE loss (just needed to win not push aaron sanchez and different story)

Bos win cancels out Giants loss

then we can just live off of Cubs under and Dbacks win at a couple + odds in the 120s

now we can afford to eat for at least another day.

I had a guy drive out to Peppermill to get Dbacks money +130 and the game was OTB. Not great.

very cool lol

I'll check in tomorrow

The line had not changed from +130 since Sunday 6:59pm. I wouldn't have trusted it.

carbon neutral proj K June 25

https://pastebin.com/ZvSyAsi4

lets undo yesterday which undid most of sunday so we can get back to where we were sunday

only one HRE apparently to lose. OAK/SLN u27 -115

Thanks for the pastebin. I took Bieber u7 -114.

me too

i lose about every bieber under all season, so looking forward to losing together.

I'm also on Bieber o18.5 outs. Can we middle one time with a lot of groundouts and flyouts?

these are all available on bookmaker right now. lotta big edges. we on all these DNRS?

A ALZOLAY (CHN) o4.5 +143, 22.81% EDGE
M FRIED (ATL) o4.5 -125, 9.89% EDGE
R STRIPLING (LAN) o3.5 +112, 49.63% EDGE
C GONZALEZ (COL) o3.5 +118, 39.65% EDGE
S BIEBER (CLE) u6.5 +108, 16.11% EDGE
J ZIMMERMANN (DET) u3.5 +130, 21.10% EDGE
L ALLEN (SDN) o4.5 -117, 19.16% EDGE
G COLE (HOU) u7.5 -108, 9.57% EDGE
C BASSITT (OAK) o4.5 -110, 10.14% EDGE
J FLAHERTY (SLN) u6.5 +107, 15.55% EDGE
A HEANEY (ANA) u5.5 -105, 6.62% EDGE
T. MAHLE (CIN) o4.5 +135, 5.47% EDGE

Bieber u7
Davies o4
Williams u4
Ray u7
Zimmerman u4
Cole u7.5
Heaney u5.5

What the hell.

Unofficial TomG NY -2.5 system

1st play

962 New York Yankees -2½ -107 (5d)

here are my ****ty runline calcs. i thought these were good but when i got some data to backtest them they didn't show as profitable so be careful. nonetheless i took brewers -2.5 +175 earlier because plus odds.

https://pastebin.com/tPxJ6pbv