Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerzitzen
Dont really bet baseball but from my recollection the 13 o/u has been pretty inline recently with Rockies o/u. They had a HRE a couple days ago of like 40? which I dont think I've seen before. Guessing yest was around there?
Never even played DFS but assuming this would be priced in?
I haven't tracked it but Coors games are usually around 10-11 range. I could be mistaken, but the people I talk DFS with in my slack group were all ****ting themselves over a 13 o/u so it would seem reasonable that it was a bit of an outlier.
Yes, it's priced in, but DFS is never efficiently priced - a big part is late changes, other parts I honestly believe are intentional to drive action. Ultimately, it's not really that big a deal because it's player vs player but there are some very odd situations every slate where some guys are way too cheap and this does tend to incentivize play at times. A lot of "holy **** x pitcher is y amount, I'm going to do 100 lineups today instead of 20" type talk is common in the DFS lands - there will never be any proof of it of course, but I'm sure that's why there are always some soft pricing options each and every slate. I'm talking about the kind that no algorithm could possibly produce and had to been manually manipulated.
thing about coors though is that it can't be too expensive because it still needs to a be a viable play to physically fit on a roster so one can easily play coors without making too many hard decisions elsewhere.
Given all the roster conditions, you can only price players up to a certain amount before they become unplayable so with Coors games - it's never about pricing, it's about ownership and value. You know they'll be really highly owned so it really becomes a choice of "will they be extra good to justify the ownership I'm eating" or are you better off finding players slightly less likely to hit a HR at a fraction of the ownership.
Then there's cash, there's really no excuse to not rely upon Coors games heavily in cash unless there's some seriously under priced players elsewhere - but even then you'll likely have one or two of them. For me, if there is a lefty pitching at Coors, my cash build starts with ace pitching and Arenado/Story then fill out the rest with value - unless there's some seriously underpriced 3B or SS that makes a pivot - but still, vs a lefty, those two are pretty close to automatic.
Against the other top cash game players, there's typically about 2/3 identical builds in cash lines - so it's pretty easy to predict a limited player pool of guys who will be rostered in cash -again, because of the unexplainable soft pricing on certain guys each slate- the ones who really surprise you tend to run out of money by this point in the season - RIP