Sports Betting is coming to NC and I've started to read up on it as I've never bet on sports. For context, I play poker, so I reasonably understand probability, EV, and odds. I only follow the NFL, but more so for fun and have never played Fantasy Football or any Fantasy sport. I also have never done research on players or followed players outside my favorite NFL Team.

That said, from what I'm reading, I'm still a little confused on how people determine who to bet on.

Do people research teams? Players? I understand there are different types of bets like money lines, props, and in-game.

If so, what stats do you look at?

How much math (i.e. edges, probability, good odds) vs. "feelings" do people use?

If someone sees a team +500 but they "feel" like they could win, where is that feeling coming from? How much "feeling" do you need to overcome the odds laid?

Does it really just come down to if you think you have an edge vs. the stats laid down by the sports book?

How do you determine your edge? Meaning, what makes you think you know better than the sports book laying the odds?

1) place match into master computer
2) compared master computer opinion to betting line
3) if profitable bet

Master computer? You plugging into the matrix?

To me it’s never about stats or math. Sharp observation and intuition can come a long way.

1. If NFL is your thing, focus on just NFL for now. Different sports are different markets, odd setups are very different so don’t bet on everything, choose your specialty.

2. Follow certain teams, notice how often they win or lose, chances are they will never break the cycle, bettors tend to bet on/against them and Vegas knows it too well.

3. And when you’re comfortable with your market, take a look at the line movements. Figure it out in your own way in your own intuition why is it like that? This part is very confusing and will determine if you’re a true winner or not. No one will tell you their secrets in this department, you have to do it yourself.

That’s still a long way from how to determine your bets. But as time goes by you’ll have your own experience and observation and intuition to determine them yourself. Good luck on your journey!

intuition and what i want to happen. manifest it.

There's intuition that comes from watching games and Knowing Your Team™, and there's intuition that comes from deep study of the science of sports betting.

Ask yourself which intuition you're using.

You HAVE to be able to quantify your edge. Otherwise you have no idea if what you think is your 'edge' is already baked into the line. For instance, say you notice that a wide receiver has been getting a lot more targets in the past couple games. Maybe due to an injury to the number 1 WR or something. You think hes going to get more catches and TD's than normally. Well, why do you think youre the only person who sees that? How do you know it isnt baked into the line already? Maybe it go too baked in and now the edge is on the under? Without a model you have no idea. So you can use 'intuition', I guess, to a certain point, but without a model you really have basically no chance.

C'mon Poogs, don't complicate things. One quantifies their edge by whether it lands heads or tails. Easy game.

Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk
Book by Billy Walters

Get this book. Not only is it a good read but it'll give you an idea of how insanely hard you have to work to beat the books.

There is also commercial software out there that tracks all the stats available where you can build your own sims or let its algorithms optimize picks for you. One thing to be cognizant of though is it's based off pure stats and doesn't factor in that Joe Burrow broke his ankle last game and is out for the season. It's a tool and fun to play around with, but not a sure fire way to easy money.

Personally I realized early on this was a fools errand for me. The reason I still bet on games is because it gives me a reason to care about a game that I would otherwise have a mild interest in. Entertainment dollars and nothing more.

Back in the early nineties when you still had to call in you bets, my bookie had a plain white business card that just said '11 is bigger than 10' with his phone number underneath. Took me a while, but I finally figured out why.

^ he was just on the Joe Rogan podcast for 2+ hours. Give it a listen.

Well...except that it wasn't a very good interview... Would've helped if Rogan had a clue about sportsbetting...

yea it was terrible. I love Rogan in theory but I think hes a terrible interviewer. I have yet to see anyone give billy walters a good interview

Anybody else in NC grabbing all these welcome bonuses? I think I’ve downloaded all of the apps for the sites and made the minimum deposits necessary to get everything.

This what I do (for baseball). I plug info into a spreadsheet I made which calculates what the line "should" be according to my inputs. Baseball lines are wildly inaccurate and I think (know!) mine are better. How do I know? Because I beat that line every year.

*past performance is no guarantee of future results*