Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting
01-27-2024
, 03:54 PM
Quote:
A1-F1 = just labels for the games
A2-F2 = the implied win rate of each team
A3-F3 = "=RAND()" to get a random number between 0 and 1
A4-F4 = "IF(A3<A2,1,0)" - for the A column example here, since 54% of the time they win, if the random number is .5399 or less then it will count as a "win" and the box will be marked with a 1 rather than a zero - this is not perfect as we lose ties but that will happen very infrequently and not enough to really impact things, especially since we're doing a 10k sim
G4 = "=IF(SUM(A4:F4)>2.5,1,0)" - this is simply counting whether or not we got 3 winners or not, if we did then it becomes a 1 and if not then a 0, this will make it very easy to parse through later but also limit our options (ie what if there was a 4 wins or more bet) then we're sol on that using this template and would need to make changes
J1 = "=G4" - just putting out result at the top of the data table as this is what we're going to blast off with 10k times
I2-I10001 = numbered in order, i forgot if that's necessary or not, but i always do it
now to create the data table:
1 you highlight I1:J10001 so that's all highlighted together
2 go to the data tab
3 you'll see "what if analysis" and the drop down box will have "data table"
click that and this pops up
leave "row input cell" blank
for "column input cell" just click on a blank cell - i always use whichever cell is in this case I1 because then i know not to touch that one going forward
click ok, you'll see J2:J10001 suddenly go from being blank cells to all replicating new trials of the J1 cell - those are your results
this one is pretty simple, we're just doing a simple binary outcome so we can literally just sum the total and that's how many instances of success there were
we did that in C7 - which is "=COUNTIF(J2:J10001,1)" but I could have also wrote "=SUM(J2:J10001)"
there's many different variations and a dozen different ways we could have tackled this and theres a lot of youtube videos under 20 minutes that explain the process - many of them are specifically geared for sports betting
A2-F2 = the implied win rate of each team
A3-F3 = "=RAND()" to get a random number between 0 and 1
A4-F4 = "IF(A3<A2,1,0)" - for the A column example here, since 54% of the time they win, if the random number is .5399 or less then it will count as a "win" and the box will be marked with a 1 rather than a zero - this is not perfect as we lose ties but that will happen very infrequently and not enough to really impact things, especially since we're doing a 10k sim
G4 = "=IF(SUM(A4:F4)>2.5,1,0)" - this is simply counting whether or not we got 3 winners or not, if we did then it becomes a 1 and if not then a 0, this will make it very easy to parse through later but also limit our options (ie what if there was a 4 wins or more bet) then we're sol on that using this template and would need to make changes
J1 = "=G4" - just putting out result at the top of the data table as this is what we're going to blast off with 10k times
I2-I10001 = numbered in order, i forgot if that's necessary or not, but i always do it
now to create the data table:
1 you highlight I1:J10001 so that's all highlighted together
2 go to the data tab
3 you'll see "what if analysis" and the drop down box will have "data table"
click that and this pops up
leave "row input cell" blank
for "column input cell" just click on a blank cell - i always use whichever cell is in this case I1 because then i know not to touch that one going forward
click ok, you'll see J2:J10001 suddenly go from being blank cells to all replicating new trials of the J1 cell - those are your results
this one is pretty simple, we're just doing a simple binary outcome so we can literally just sum the total and that's how many instances of success there were
we did that in C7 - which is "=COUNTIF(J2:J10001,1)" but I could have also wrote "=SUM(J2:J10001)"
there's many different variations and a dozen different ways we could have tackled this and theres a lot of youtube videos under 20 minutes that explain the process - many of them are specifically geared for sports betting