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Old 01-11-2019, 05:13 PM   #1
whittiphil2
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 39
correlated parlay question

I have a book that offers a specific "same game parlay" option for soccer.

A lot of the options are not allowed to be combined, but one that is, is goalscorer + total goals

So I can bet total goals (over 2.5), and player x to score 2 or more goals.

Here are the bookie's odds (euro style) for each:
player x to score 2 or more: 10.00
over 2.5 goals: 1.57

They allow me to parlay them for total odds of 15.50

Given how correlated player x scoring twice and there being 3 or more goals in a match must be, that seems like it could be +EV right? Am I missing something?

[edited because I mistyped one of the options]
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Old 01-11-2019, 11:43 PM   #2
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 186
Re: correlated parlay question

The 2+ goal market has a massive edge for the bookie

Not sure what it is on your markets, but expect fair value to be at least double.

Look back through history, does that type of player score 2+ goals more often than 1 in 10 games? One in 20 games?
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