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Old 08-25-2017, 09:51 AM   #1
jablo1312
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Correlated CFB Parlays

Everyone's favorite subject...currently have 1 local who lets me parlay the over and the favorite in any CFB game, but not the dog and the under.

It seems like these used to be unanimously considered +EV, and although it would probably be optimal to bet both the fav/over and dog/under parlays, I should still be betting the fav/over parlay if that's my only option. Did some extra googling and came across the following link:

https://www.safestbettingsites.com/n...elated-parlays

which states:

"UPDATE March 2016: These bets were profitable for quite awhile, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore. Bet these at your own risk. Offshore sportsbooks still don’t accept them, but betting them with locals in the past few years have seen subpar results. It seems the market has adjusted. The information will be left below, but it is our opinion that these wagers are now -EV."

This really confused me, and after thinking about it still doesn't make sense . How could "the market" adjust to wagers that were outright banned at every book that actually sets the market (Pinny, CRIS, etc). I'm almost positive that's not correct, so I'm deciding to forge ahead with these, albeit in a somewhat cautious manner.

It seems that the threshold of the spread/total ratio used to be 33% (i.e. they would bet these parlays when the absolute value of the spread was at least 33% of the total, and presumably increase their wager size as that ratio increased). Without being able to do any research yet, I've arbitrarily set my threshold at 50% and bet the following fav-over combos in weeks 1a and 1b:

Stanford -30.5/over 50.5
Washginton -30/over 52
Clemson -39/over 51 (this one is absurdly good)
Oklahoma -44.5/over 62.5
Auburn -35/over53

Again, I'm not sure how the market could have adjusted to wagers they can't make. If I'm missing something there I'd appreciate someone explaining it to me!
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Old 08-25-2017, 12:31 PM   #2
ARCANGEL0
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Hi what do you think about buying points for the parlay to be correlated?

say line is -16 tot 45

buy 1 point either on the side or total and manufacture a correlated parlay does the reduced payout offsets the correlated advantage?

glgl
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Old 08-25-2017, 03:13 PM   #3
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journeyman
 
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Please don't post about this stuff in public.

Actually yea that site is right. They're no good anymore. Market adjusted.

Seriously though let this thread die quitely please.
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:53 PM   #4
The IRS
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

These are huge favorites if you find places to bet them but most places with a clue have banned them out. Over 50% of the total is a decent edge and 2/3 or more is just insane. I used to have a local that allowed these for decent bets and we'd do everything; first halves are great too.

I don't know anywhere to bet these anymore but if they haven't been doing well lately it's just because of variance. Even with the stronger plays they are only like 35% to win and there are only a few per week. Something like that could run bad for a season.
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Old 08-26-2017, 07:13 AM   #5
Mihkel05
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Yes, they win. lol @ Like. What next? Asking for help on choosing what to bet?
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Old 08-26-2017, 08:39 AM   #6
Wh1teNorth
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Fade Stanford today
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:53 PM   #7
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
Yes, they win. lol @ Like. What next? Asking for help on choosing what to bet?
What? Did you seriously not understand my post bud?
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Old 08-27-2017, 01:41 AM   #8
Crispy Linetta
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wh1teNorth View Post
Fade Stanford today


Solid read.
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Old 08-27-2017, 06:06 PM   #9
cockandbull
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
What? Did you seriously not understand my post bud?
I think you misunderstood the correction...
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Old 08-28-2017, 04:18 PM   #10
jablo1312
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

How do I delete a thread?
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:15 PM   #11
Mihkel05
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Poogs,

You literally just posted asking for RL handouts without even knowing how 5is are lined.

Now you wanna **** on some guy asking literally the same question in a different sport?

I don't really understand what you mean tbh. Should we have told you just to go away? Or be able to do a basic correlation analysis yourself?
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Old 09-07-2017, 04:56 PM   #12
DeezNuts
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

I crushed on these wk 1 and now my bookie has restricted to under 30%. But he paid me the 50+ units I won. GG.
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:01 PM   #13
Mihkel05
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Handshakes.
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Old 09-07-2017, 06:40 PM   #14
jablo1312
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Ya these crushed this weekend.
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Old 09-09-2017, 11:03 PM   #15
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
Poogs,

You literally just posted asking for RL handouts without even knowing how 5is are lined.

Now you wanna **** on some guy asking literally the same question in a different sport?

I don't really understand what you mean tbh. Should we have told you just to go away? Or be able to do a basic correlation analysis yourself?
I didnt **** on anyone. I was saying that I didnt think it was a good idea to post about CFB CP's in public. If I was ****ting on anything it was that site he posted. And obviously I know how 5 inning lines are posted bud, I made a typo. I know you think Im retarded but certainly Im capable of looking at a line set and deciphering it. I think MLB CP's are different than CFB ones. Some CFB games are ridiculously correlated. They are less so in MLB and I wasnt really sure about the 1H ones so I posed the question here. You thought it was dumb. I dont care at all, you dont decide what gets posted and what doesn't. Why u so mad all the time bro
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Old 09-11-2017, 09:01 AM   #16
Wh1teNorth
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Re: Correlated CFB Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crispy Linetta View Post
Solid read.
How'd they do against USC?
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