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Old 03-13-2019, 11:43 PM   #1
daonna
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Is this correlated?

I was able to place the following parlay today. The bet went through fine but I don't want to raise any flags on the account. I haven't the resources to backtest it so wondering if any hockey guys here can tell at a glance if it is correlated.
TIA.

10 Min Alt Puck Line -1.5 (favourite @ ~ +800)
Full Game Total Over 6 (@ -105)

Parlay odds ~ +1650
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Old 03-16-2019, 12:47 PM   #2
TomG
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Re: Is this correlated?

yes it's obviously correlated to some degree and no it may not be blindly +ev because you haven't calculated the degree of correlation and you're probably getting raped on the pricing for that 10 min alt puck line
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Old 03-22-2019, 01:14 AM   #3
akkopower1
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Re: Is this correlated?

Quote:
Originally Posted by daonna View Post
I was able to place the following parlay today. The bet went through fine but I don't want to raise any flags on the account. I haven't the resources to backtest it so wondering if any hockey guys here can tell at a glance if it is correlated.
TIA.

10 Min Alt Puck Line -1.5 (favourite @ ~ +800)
Full Game Total Over 6 (@ -105)

Parlay odds ~ +1650
Yep, definitely correlated.

My guess is still negative ev. You need to change the 10min bet into something with a shorter price. Maybe they wont allow anything shorter, only allowing the -ev correlated parlays
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Old 03-24-2019, 09:00 PM   #4
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Re: Is this correlated?

Thats definitely correlated. You need to find out the correct price of that alt line though. If its not too bad I would be pretty pumped about betting that. I dont think Ive seen that before...that means the favorite needs to be up by 2 in the first 10 minutes of the game, right? I could figure out the right price OP if you want to PM me
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Old 04-01-2019, 08:45 AM   #5
Timbo12
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Re: Is this correlated?

Online book or a local??
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Old 04-04-2019, 08:17 PM   #6
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grinder
 
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Re: Is this correlated?

HELLO?! OP!??
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:39 AM   #7
daonna
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Re: Is this correlated?

Sorry guys. Thanks for the replies. Just logged in after a couple weeks.
Since I first posted this I’ve played the same parlay multiple times. I’ve been payed out twice with no probs and the bet is still available. No idea about limits. I collected >500 <1000 the 2 times the bet hit. I don’t really want to mention which book here. I don’t want de niece to take it down just yet ��.
I agree I’m getting raped on the 10 min alt puck line. I’ve seen various odds ranging from +700 to +1600 on the favourite for this market. The efficiency of this market would be low and I reckon the odds offered would be a direct correlation with the full game money line odds.
@Like, yes the parlay wins if the selection is up by at least 2 goals in the 10th minute and the game subsequently goes over the posted total.
Here’s the odds for one I placed on tomorrow’s CLB @NY game. CLB are -220 or so on the full game ML.
10 min Alt Line CLB -1.5 @+750 (decimal 8.50)
Full Game Total Over 6 @-110 (1.90)
Parlay +1522.

The other side of that +750 is -1800 so yes it’s a high vig market. Still, I think there would be occasional +ev spots.
The other side might be worth looking at too.
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Old 04-05-2019, 10:17 AM   #8
TomG
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Re: Is this correlated?

that is exciting to cash a big ticket on such long odds. some people might tell you to bet both sides of the parlay but i wouldn't recommend that. that kind of thing can really piss off a bookmaker (unjustified of course but we don't control such things). so go about your day nibbling at this and track your results. it's going to take a long time to figure a good handle on your roi though. you are of course more than welcome to post these daily to our crowdsource syndicate thread. you're thinking and betting like a true professional, great job.
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:51 PM   #9
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Re: Is this correlated?

Yea definitely dont bet both sides.

Again, you really need to come up with a fair price for that alt line. Or at least get in the ballpark. That way you can see if you really are getting raped, which Im sure you are. Id keep betting in the meantime though, just keep em small and keep track.
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Old 04-08-2019, 11:39 AM   #10
expork69
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Re: Is this correlated?

yeah, dont make a bet on both ways
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