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Old 05-06-2018, 09:52 AM   #1
bL1z
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CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?



1. Cash out both
Guaranteed €85.97

2. No cash out
Real Madrid wins: €42.50
Liverpool wins: €160.00

3. Cash out Real Madrid for €23.30
Liverpool wins: +€160.00 (€183.30)

4. Cash out Liverpool for €62.67
Real Madrid wins: +€42.50 (€105.17)

Current odds to win CL:
Real Madrid = 1.64
Liverpool = 2.28

Let's say these odds accurately reflect their chances:
1.64 = 60.98%
2.28 = 43.86%

How do I calculate which option has the highest EV?
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Old 05-06-2018, 03:09 PM   #2
Singasong2222
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Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Who cares . Pennies
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Old 05-06-2018, 03:10 PM   #3
Singasong2222
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Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Tip for ya for making this thread you lose money if cash out and lose if you don’t.
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Old 05-08-2018, 12:01 PM   #4
SwoopAE
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Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

The current market novig line suggests a novig line of about +/- 132 (obv this may move before the game in either direction)

You're effectively giving up -122 on a Real cashout and giving up +155 on a liverpool cashout. You do not wish to give up a +EV bet vs the cashout price in either case, cashing out is losing you EV in both cases.

The short answer is 'no, don't cash out it's bad math'

If you insist on having zero risk the best move would be to bet an amount where you win an equal amount on both teams on the best Real Madrid line you have access to
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Old 05-08-2018, 04:59 PM   #5
MisterRodriguez
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Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Macdonalds or Kebab
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