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 05-06-2018, 09:52 AM #1 bL1z journeyman     Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 368 CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? 1. Cash out both Guaranteed €85.97 2. No cash out Real Madrid wins: €42.50 Liverpool wins: €160.00 3. Cash out Real Madrid for €23.30 Liverpool wins: +€160.00 (€183.30) 4. Cash out Liverpool for €62.67 Real Madrid wins: +€42.50 (€105.17) Current odds to win CL: Real Madrid = 1.64 Liverpool = 2.28 Let's say these odds accurately reflect their chances: 1.64 = 60.98% 2.28 = 43.86% How do I calculate which option has the highest EV?
 05-06-2018, 03:09 PM #2 Singasong2222 adept   Join Date: Oct 2016 Location: location Posts: 1,100 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Who cares . Pennies
 05-06-2018, 03:10 PM #3 Singasong2222 adept   Join Date: Oct 2016 Location: location Posts: 1,100 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Tip for ya for making this thread you lose money if cash out and lose if you don’t.
 05-08-2018, 12:01 PM #4 SwoopAE Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: I AM CAPITAO Posts: 19,308 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? The current market novig line suggests a novig line of about +/- 132 (obv this may move before the game in either direction) You're effectively giving up -122 on a Real cashout and giving up +155 on a liverpool cashout. You do not wish to give up a +EV bet vs the cashout price in either case, cashing out is losing you EV in both cases. The short answer is 'no, don't cash out it's bad math' If you insist on having zero risk the best move would be to bet an amount where you win an equal amount on both teams on the best Real Madrid line you have access to
 05-08-2018, 04:59 PM #5 MisterRodriguez journeyman     Join Date: May 2017 Location: UE Posts: 201 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Macdonalds or Kebab
 05-23-2018, 09:00 AM #6 JudgeHoldem Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: OTP ATL Posts: 8,056 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? real madrid gonna win anyway
 05-23-2018, 09:02 AM #7 lvr old hand   Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,940 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Join Date : 2008
05-24-2018, 02:42 PM   #8
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: I AM CAPITAO
Posts: 19,308
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lvr Join Date : 2008
You realise that this (2+2) is primarily a poker forum and most poker players aren't sharp sports bettors right? I was primarily a poker player when I started posting in this forum and I assume a decent amount of the sharps here were as well originally. There's nothing wrong with answering the occasional 'stupid' question even if the answer is 'obvious' to anyone who understands sports betting related math.

05-25-2018, 03:24 AM   #9
lvr
old hand

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,940
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SwoopAE You realise that this (2+2) is primarily a poker forum and most poker players aren't sharp sports bettors right? I was primarily a poker player when I started posting in this forum and I assume a decent amount of the sharps here were as well originally. There's nothing wrong with answering the occasional 'stupid' question even if the answer is 'obvious' to anyone who understands sports betting related math.
It was more directed to the amounts wagered...

Why do you take every random post so personally?

relax mate this is a troll thread

05-27-2018, 07:52 PM   #10
ILikeToParty
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,426
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lvr It was more directed to the amounts wagered... Why do you take every random post so personally? relax mate this is a troll thread

wow youre so awesome

05-27-2018, 09:22 PM   #11
JudgeHoldem
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012
Location: OTP ATL
Posts: 8,056
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem real madrid gonna win anyway
See

05-28-2018, 12:11 AM   #12
lvr
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Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,940
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ILikeToParty wow youre so awesome

maybe change your name to 1LiK3tOpArTaYY to make it more awesomeee

05-28-2018, 02:19 PM   #13
Like
journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 393
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lvr Join Date : 2008
Did this make you feel better? Are you curious why that might be the case?

05-30-2018, 03:09 AM   #14
lvr
old hand

Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,940
Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Like Did this make you feel better? Are you curious why that might be the case?
what are you talking about

why are there so many retarded people on this forum...?

 05-30-2018, 09:01 AM #15 JudgeHoldem Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: OTP ATL Posts: 8,056 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Mods Pls lock and delete this thread
 05-30-2018, 09:48 AM #16 lvr old hand   Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,940 Re: CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? I don't see how I am the bad guy when you guys are enabling a degenerate gambler 10 years in and betting pennies this aint for him get some help

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