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CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? CL winner bets: do I cash out or not?
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05-06-2018 , 09:52 AM
#1
bL1z's Avatar
bL1z
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 374


1. Cash out both
Guaranteed €85.97

2. No cash out
Real Madrid wins: €42.50
Liverpool wins: €160.00

3. Cash out Real Madrid for €23.30
Liverpool wins: +€160.00 (€183.30)

4. Cash out Liverpool for €62.67
Real Madrid wins: +€42.50 (€105.17)

Current odds to win CL:
Real Madrid = 1.64
Liverpool = 2.28

Let's say these odds accurately reflect their chances:
1.64 = 60.98%
2.28 = 43.86%

How do I calculate which option has the highest EV?
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-06-2018 , 03:09 PM
#2
Singasong2222
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Who cares . Pennies
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-06-2018 , 03:10 PM
#3
Singasong2222
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Tip for ya for making this thread you lose money if cash out and lose if you don’t.
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-08-2018 , 12:01 PM
#4
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The current market novig line suggests a novig line of about +/- 132 (obv this may move before the game in either direction)

You're effectively giving up -122 on a Real cashout and giving up +155 on a liverpool cashout. You do not wish to give up a +EV bet vs the cashout price in either case, cashing out is losing you EV in both cases.

The short answer is 'no, don't cash out it's bad math'

If you insist on having zero risk the best move would be to bet an amount where you win an equal amount on both teams on the best Real Madrid line you have access to
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-08-2018 , 04:59 PM
#5
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Macdonalds or Kebab
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-23-2018 , 09:00 AM
#6
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real madrid gonna win anyway
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-23-2018 , 09:02 AM
#7
lvr
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CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-24-2018 , 02:42 PM
#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
Join Date : 2008
You realise that this (2+2) is primarily a poker forum and most poker players aren't sharp sports bettors right? I was primarily a poker player when I started posting in this forum and I assume a decent amount of the sharps here were as well originally. There's nothing wrong with answering the occasional 'stupid' question even if the answer is 'obvious' to anyone who understands sports betting related math.
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-25-2018 , 03:24 AM
#9
lvr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
You realise that this (2+2) is primarily a poker forum and most poker players aren't sharp sports bettors right? I was primarily a poker player when I started posting in this forum and I assume a decent amount of the sharps here were as well originally. There's nothing wrong with answering the occasional 'stupid' question even if the answer is 'obvious' to anyone who understands sports betting related math.
It was more directed to the amounts wagered...

Why do you take every random post so personally?

relax mate this is a troll thread
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-27-2018 , 07:52 PM
#10
ILikeToParty
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
It was more directed to the amounts wagered...

Why do you take every random post so personally?

relax mate this is a troll thread


wow youre so awesome
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-27-2018 , 09:22 PM
#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem
real madrid gonna win anyway
See
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-28-2018 , 12:11 AM
#12
lvr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty
wow youre so awesome
Username : ILikeToParty

maybe change your name to 1LiK3tOpArTaYY to make it more awesomeee
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-28-2018 , 02:19 PM
#13
Like
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
Join Date : 2008
Did this make you feel better? Are you curious why that might be the case?
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-30-2018 , 03:09 AM
#14
lvr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
Did this make you feel better? Are you curious why that might be the case?
what are you talking about

why are there so many ******ed people on this forum...?
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-30-2018 , 09:01 AM
#15
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Mods Pls lock and delete this thread
CL winner bets: do I cash out or not? Quote
05-30-2018 , 09:48 AM
#16
lvr
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I don't see how I am the bad guy when you guys are enabling a degenerate gambler

10 years in and betting pennies

this aint for him

get some help
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