It's 2017. Virtually every game is on TV, most people buying picks couldn't careless anyway, and "big game" lines aren't nearly as efficient as you are giving them credit for.

Other than that spot on.

if they are touting their not making enough money from betting their own picks, and if they are bagging touts their not making enough money betting their own picks

Any tout who can successfully show you a documented record is legit. If they can't then their most likely full of ****. Anyone who claims 65% or higher betting lines over 1000+ games is definitely full of ****. In a nutshell...

Do you think that there is any handicapper in the world who could hit 54% if he had to bet every game that a randomly selected tout published his pick on and no other games? All the same amount of course and at the same pointspread. If you say no then you are saying the same thing I am.

Any mid to high level modeler could run a successful/winning service in any sport with dece liquidity. They don't/won't because the opp cost of doing so is absurdly high, so we're left with the coin flip scammers.

Winners don't tout and touts don't win. /Thread

^ this is correct but..

I'll give a example of two handicappers I know, one is a very average handicapper who is very wealthy, while the other is outstanding and when I say at least a few times the handicapper of the other guy I'm not kidding but lacks money management skills and is always busto.

The first guy who is successful is basically grinding out the smallest ROI possible but doing so much turnover that he just keeps accumulating profit.

Of the two guys whos picks would you pay for? and why wouldn't you buy the seconds guys picks even though he is a overall loser in the game but only because of brm?

This is mostly correct, however it is not an absolute truth. There are few real touts who are winners.

pickmonitor.com /end thread

Winning touts exist but they are the exception not the rule

pickmonitor is a tout service themselves where the people tracked there are allowed to sell picks. pretty much every record tracking service i've seen either sells picks themselves or is somehow otherwise illegitimate.

This isn't 1987. "hitting 54%" is meaningless. I can easily "hit 54%" if I take -130 moneylines. Only a small minority of bets today have the same juice on both sides. You should be talking in terms of ROI, not "percentage of winners".

You are trying to maximize the amount of equity you can get down. This is a very complex issue which is dependent on many factors. How confident are you in your edge (i.e. can you use Kelly - and what fraction of Kelly is appropriate - to determine an appropriate betsize?), how many outs do you have and what are their limits, will your outs pay you if/when you win, how many games/props are available to you where you think you have an edge? Many of these questions have answers that come along with a confidence interval. The better you are in reducing that confidence interval, the better sportsbettor you are.

I do however admit I like how you wear your Dinosaur label on your sleeve so proudly. Please stay in the game.

A good Handicaper for the client is a gem nowadays.There are good handicappers out there but how many of this few good handicappers can provide the price he recommends to the customer more often than not?
I don t have any expertise in American Sports,but a good handicapper here in Europe with thousands of bets and a 5% plus ROI and that BTCL frequently Pinnacle almost always when he pusblishes is bets the price drifts a lot,to much for the customer to have similar ROI.
A good handicaper can not have a lot of big bet followers in my opinion and have to be carefull with Bookie spys..
A good handicaper not only have to acquire an edge he needs to take measures to deliver the edge he acquired to the customer
Here in Europe after a good handicapper publish his bets it is a rat race

The appropriate bet size following Kelly in Vegas is zero. She does NOT win.

A+ thread of late gentlemen
keep up the good work!

Please PLEASE tell me this wasnt a joke

is there anyone in here still using them? anyone here used them for years and not anymore? give me the feedback please

If you want to sit on the computer for 16 hours on Saturday to be able to bet $500 on the San Francisco/Hawaii halftime and pick up $10 of EV after fees they're fantastic!

It is NOT a joke. She is a documented loser. The optimal Kelly bet size following her picks is $0. Period.

She lost period...

I can't believe I just came back to this thread, A+++ would buy again.

lol no kidding. If someone cant tell that a half naked 'kelly from vegas', who advises buying a half point on all total bets (like paying to go form under 54 to under 54.5) is not beating CFB and NFL markets, you deserve to lose your money.