Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
who could hit 54%
This isn't 1987. "hitting 54%" is meaningless. I can easily "hit 54%" if I take -130 moneylines. Only a small minority of bets today have the same juice on both sides. You should be talking in terms of ROI, not "percentage of winners".
You are trying to maximize the amount of equity you can get down. This is a very complex issue which is dependent on many factors. How confident are you in your edge (i.e. can you use Kelly - and what fraction of Kelly is appropriate - to determine an appropriate betsize?), how many outs do you have and what are their limits, will your outs pay you if/when you win, how many games/props are available to you where you think you have an edge? Many of these questions have answers that come along with a confidence interval. The better you are in reducing that confidence interval, the better sportsbettor you are.
I do however admit I like how you wear your Dinosaur label on your sleeve so proudly. Please stay in the game.