Unless they run a scam like you did, TBAB, fudging the record.

David Sklansky,have you ever heard of the expression:Stay in your lane.

11 to 10? we are not in 1999,nowadays we have bookmakers namely Pinnacle with avg overound of 2% in the main sports

«Not if He has to come up with several picks a week. Because, simplistically speaking, there is no profitable bet unless the line is incorrect»

In this particular assumption you are more correct,specially if you are refering yourself to a subjecitve based Handicapper.However with Moddelling you can find spots to attack much more than a few times a week,specially if you avoid the mainstream/highcompetitions/close to kick off enviroments

David you are a brilliant poker guru but remember,unless you want to initiate the learning curve all over again,STAY in your Lane.

Best Regards

Anyeway my conclusion about almost no one can offer good professional services,its mainly due to a quick fix mentality and picking winners in this industry.Like anything in live you have to work hard and develop the skills first

No it doesn't.

And some of you are replying to me as if I said sports can't be beaten if you have to lay 11-10. I beat it for years. Rather I am saying that sports bettors can't hit 53% if they are forced to make several picks a week from a small menu even if they are expert handicappers.

There is betlabs. You can create your own models. LIKE DFS has Fantasylabs. Meaning you can avoid Tout services.

this thread literally gave me HIV. Im posting from a hospital. Pray for me

Winning is not impossible. There are people out there that pick 55-57% at NFL or NBA spreads 1 hour before the game and they are not betting 1 game a week. I am not at that level and probably never will be, but these folks exist. You take the world's best models that would be a small winner anyway, you combine it with insider info, maybe getting an extra half point off line manipulation, it all adds up.

Now no one at that level is ever going to sell picks as they are too busy figuring out how to spend their millions. But there are actually a lot of good reasons why someone below that level, but who still wins, would want to go tout. Personally if I could make 50% of what I made betting touting I would do it.

The problem is that it's much more profitable, not to mention much easier, to just lie about your results and focus on marketing than it is to actually win. Put another way, most people who buy this stuff wouldn't be able to tell the difference between someone who actually could be expected to win and someone who is obviously picking at random. Getting three or four more picks right out of 100 is not going to change that. As a result almost all touts don't win.

dude definitely told his friends that david sklansky replied to him on an internet forum...

this exactly, most of these pages ac more like they are inot sales/marketing than sports betting.

Dunning-Kruger folks.

The fall of David Sklanksy is one of the more interesting and bizarre things to witness in the advantage-gambling world. This man, the author of such legitimately great books like small stakes hold em, that tournament one, and the theory poker, among others, was once considered the end all be all on all things gambling related. Then between his pure oddness on this forum (including actually being banned at one point I'm quite sure,) the utter nonsense he posts about sports betting, the really REALLY weird rumors with very young girls, plus his inability to construct a coherent sentence and play more than 3 hands of live poker without getting up and wondering around for half an hour, have really cemented his status as kind of sad, cautionary tale. We can just hope his son, Mat, who by all accounts is a sharp and nice fellow, albeit condescending and quite full of himself, doesn't follow the same path. David, your books got me started in the gambling world and you'll probably be remembered fondly as time marches on. But the game has passed you by, sir.

I think the late great edfurlong had the best description of the younger sklansky

do tell

My comments about the touts is correct. You can't hit 53% if you are forced to choose x games from a menu where much fewer than x are off by 2 points or more. When I said God couldn't I meant given he only use his handicapping talents rather than his ability to see the future. But I never said that handicappers can't beat sports if they are not under the tout's constraints.

More importantly there has never been any really young girls remotely in my life. There have been a few in their early 20's during a short period in my life. And twelve years ago there was a girl who called herself "Saura" who fooled everyone into thinking she was twenty who was actually a sixteen year old runaway. I am not claiming it was OK for me to live with a twenty year old but that's a far cry from those rumors you mention.

Notably several years after she was brought back to Arizona, she AND her mother moved back to Las Vegas and took care of my mother the last years of her life. (Both my parents spent a lot of time with Saura on their visits from
NJ during the time we were together.)

And if you don't believe me, believe her. Well before she moved back to Vegas she started a very lengthy thread where she answered every question about our time together. I may not have come off looking that good in that thread but again it is a far cry from that rumor that has not one scintilla of truth to it.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

DS,

Did you just acknowledge you lived with a 16y old?

Weird bro.

BTW the comments about 53%/2 points/etc is all just horse**** you dragged up. None of that stuff is remotely true or based in math. Why not 57/4/monthly?

I don't know what 57/4 means. All I ever meant to say was that touts, who need to pretty much stick to TV type games, can't have an edge if the line is within about two points of the theoretically correct line and TV games usually are.

As to the 16 year old who claimed to be 20, that is common knowledge. It happened 16 years ago and was a minor scandal. But Like said there were rumors that I was a pedophile. That's infinitely worse and I mentioned Saura here only because I was trying to figure out how to explain why that totally false rumor started. How do I prove a negative?

On further reflection it is actually pretty easy to prove. Because if it was true you would think someone would accuse me. Either to put me in jail or get money. The actual truth is that I don't think I have even had a three sentence conversation with a girl under 19 for the last thirty years or so.

Is Saura the "penis on the back" girl?

Was that even David Sklansky or was that a different well known poker player?

if the girl was 16 years old and lived with you 16 years ago, how did you avoid a 3-sentence conversation with her?

I mean, congrats though for sure. that's every man's dream (not having to speak with women they live with, not living with a 16-year old).

I never claimed you were a pedophile DS. I actually didnt even know the story really, just that I remember reading some weird stuff involving you, a really young girl and something about underwear in a car or something? Thats it. Never accused you of pedophilia or even anything really. Its all just unsubstantiated internet rumors anyway....I mean until you just kind of confirmed it lol.

I did not mean to bring up old bad stuff about you though, honestly, and its not my intention to turn this thread into a bash DS thread. I regret making that post actually. You are definitely a weird dude but whatever.

Your posts about touts are mostly nonsense though, david. Of course most people on here know that touts are scammers an 99.9% of them have no edge. I don't even know what we're talking about anymore.

David with all due respect,you are or were a brilliant well knwon poker guru.if you refuse to learn and catch up with the current sports betting reality stay in your lane sir,and thats evidently from what you wrote in this thread not sports betting

You keep saying 2 points, but this just shows you have literally no idea what you're talking about. Do you have any concept how many bets exist or how much line movement exists? Those are rhetorical btw. You obviously have no clue what you're talking about.

What I was trying to say was that touts claim to be able to do something that NO ONE can do rather than something that some can do but they can't. Namely hit 55% versus the generally accepted line of the major games often on TV.

But the important point I was trying to make was NOT about the ethics of touts but rather about the nature of sports bets. Most people kind of feel like if they know the all the aspects regarding an upcoming game they would know which way to bet. But a good line stops even the perfect handicapper from having a 55% bet because if the game was played 1000 times under the exact same conditions, ball bouncing randomness and other types of randomness would result in almost an equal split in results. Thus my comments about "God".

In other words I entered a thread about touts to make a point that only indirectly related to touts. I thought that was obvious.

DS,

That point is inane and incorrect. Why do you think games need to be televised?

Friends,

FWIW I googled "penis on the back poker" and after some cyber sleuthing, stumbled upon this thread.

It seems that a) it was not DS' penis on Miss Hawbaker's back and b) it's likely, given Hawkbaker's reputation as an untruthful whore, that there was never any viagra-soused penis on her back at all.

In a strange twist of events, our very own rsigley may have had a go at her, depending on whether their #darkdays overlapped.

David you leave in a perfectly efficient odds fantasy world where touts only bet televised games near Game Time

No I don't. I am just trying to simplify things to make the point that most major games points spreads are close enough to theoretically correct that even superb handicappers, let alone the typical touts, can't beat them if they bet a lot of them and don't shop for lines.

Put another way, if I was a superb handicapper but was forced to bet only on the games that the tout published picks on and also had to use those same pointspreads, I also would lose (or win a tiny amount) laying 11-10, even though I often disagreed with the tout.