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Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread (Should I Purchase Tips Discussed) Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread (Should I Purchase Tips Discussed)

10-02-2016 , 01:48 PM
None is the correct answer.
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10-07-2016 , 04:34 AM
That question was already answered many many many times, and i agree 100% that none of the touts or sites gives profitable picks.

Just think about it, and you dont have to think it very hard.
If only cost you some thousands a year to make millions, we all would be rich right?

But even tho so much was done and writen in this regard, and yet the most needed simple dont make the effort.
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10-17-2016 , 02:49 AM
If you had picks that worked you'd sell it for equity.

I've heard a rumor that the main MLB handicapper gets 100k+/game equity between all the people who give him outs

All things considered, if you have to ask whether or not to buy picks means you need to stay away.

There are likely a few retired oddsmakers who turned over to the dark side and sell their "sheet". I have no idea what it would cost but it is definitely much bigger than 7k/year lmao (nice try).
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10-17-2016 , 09:08 AM
No. That is clearly absurd. Anyone who remotely follows baseball knows that is absurd.
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10-17-2016 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wamplerr
Absolutely, but the reality is that it doesn't make sense for a winning handicapper to sell picks in the long run. Let's say a handicapper is consistently finding events that win 50% of the time, but pay out at +110 giving him a 5% ROI.

Now let $X be the amount of the money needed to move a market from +110 to +100. In the NFL, X might be $500,000. In golf matchups, it might be $5,000. Some prop bets might only be $500.

So if it's a golf matchup, he can bet $5,000 himself and make $250 in EV. Or he can e-mail his pick out to his subscribers.

If he has 250 subscribers that pay $1 per pick, he's done great, he gets his EV without taking any risk. Now the first few people to read the e-mail go bet it and the line starts moving. How much did that group get down at good prices? How many of the people logged in and saw +100 instead of +110. They either bet it anyway and take the worst of it, or they paid $1 for a pick they didn't get to use. So all the subscribers start quitting, and now he's down to 1 subscriber. How much can he possibly charge the 1 subscriber for the pick? He could charge $250, but that leaves no profit for the subscriber so he would quit as well.

So given that markets tend to move as money comes in on one side, what's a scenario where a handicapper with a 5% edge is selling his picks and subscribers are paying for them and everyone is better off such that it can last for a long time?
Wow. Very well explained, thanks.
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10-22-2016 , 03:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte
That question was already answered many many many times, and i agree 100% that none of the touts or sites gives profitable picks.

Just think about it, and you dont have to think it very hard.
If only cost you some thousands a year to make millions, we all would be rich right?

But even tho so much was done and writen in this regard, and yet the most needed simple dont make the effort.

There most likely are people that sell their bets that are winners out there. The problem is when u pay an amount for picks it cuts down ur winnings so u're obv not going to win at the same rythm as the seller is.

Also, i think the problem with pick selling is that most losers don't bet the games they give out and the winners don't waste their time with the bs of selling picks year in year out with managing clients etc etc. it's often easy to differentiate a legit seller to a non-legit.

bottom line: v most are not legit because they can't beat the odds enough to make up for the cost of their picks or because they just don't bet their picks and give out random plays, they just sell picks on false representation/publicity etc...


just my 2 cents
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10-22-2016 , 08:39 PM
I am actually a tout and sell my picks, I do it for many reasons. The only way to make it even possible to do is paying a service strictly on commission. Therefore, you only pay when you win. Anyone who is legit should have no problem doing that as if they can win they'll work for free until they make you a profit.

Anyone who does bet sports in Las Vegas or anywhere understands there is A; limits & B; heat/backed off often.
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10-22-2016 , 08:40 PM
Thought I would share the tennis tipster I'm following. Legit the best tipster ever.
Going for Nearly two months
Sept: 20 Units
Oct: 120 Units

So far a 56% ROI over 68 bets.

I took the second last spot so don't know if any left. Also I'm not trying to advertise for him or anything. Just a recommendation.

This is his betting GS;
http://bettin.gs/TTUKVIP?page=3
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10-22-2016 , 08:42 PM
Plus, I'd also demand whoever you're buying picks from to show that they're betting as well. Because if they aren't putting their own money up on games then why should you.
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10-22-2016 , 08:56 PM
Up
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVAY
If you had picks that worked you'd sell it for equity.

I've heard a rumor that the main MLB handicapper gets 100k+/game equity between all the people who give him outs

All things considered, if you have to ask whether or not to buy picks means you need to stay away.

There are likely a few retired oddsmakers who turned over to the dark side and sell their "sheet". I have no idea what it would cost but it is definitely much bigger than 7k/year lmao (nice try).
Your first part is exactly the case here legit speaking. I truthfully don't even have to bet I have many successful wealthy clients that stick with me because I do well and work on commission. But to show what a hassle/haggle/bullcrap/waste or time I go through.

All these tickets are for this weekend and i had to run to casino to casino and this is the max allowed at each one.











Last edited by ProfessorEd; 10-22-2016 at 09:11 PM.
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10-22-2016 , 08:57 PM
How do you upload images?
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10-22-2016 , 09:02 PM
Do you sell picks on the u5.5 system
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10-22-2016 , 09:12 PM
Plus simply ask what % winners they hit with games -110 most will claim 70%+ which is absurd. The best of the best hit 57-59~
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10-22-2016 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorEd
The best of the best hit 57-59~
No they don't.
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10-22-2016 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabaneta
Do you sell picks on the u5.5 system
All my clients get those. I don't sell picks, I give out what I like and in return clients tip (commission)
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10-22-2016 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabaneta
No they don't.
I've made a living strictly from sports betting for 7 years and I can rest assure you they do.
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10-22-2016 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorEd
I've made a living strictly from sports betting for 7 years and I can rest assure you they do.
How many millions have you made?
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10-22-2016 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabaneta
How many millions have you made?
For clarification, the best sports bettors hit 57-59%. For touts i don't know...most are boiler room operations. But Steve Stevens claims 70% which is absurdly not true. But 100% confirmation you ask anyone who knows anything about sports they'll tell you the best hit 57-59%.
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10-22-2016 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabaneta
How many millions have you made?
I have $22,000 on an NFL total I got it at 52,53, 53.5 & 54. Its now at 55. Plus with the equity I have with my large clientele base understand I do very well.
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10-22-2016 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorEd
But 100% confirmation you ask anyone who knows anything about sports they'll tell you the best hit 57-59%.
So if I ask the chatroom millionaires this is what they will all say?
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10-22-2016 , 11:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorEd
I have $22,000 on an NFL total I got it at 52,53, 53.5 & 54. Its now at 55. Plus with the equity I have with my large clientele base understand I do very well.
very impressive! innnn geeral laguage please explainn how you "model" your pics.
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10-23-2016 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomatoe
very impressive! innnn geeral laguage please explainn how you "model" your pics.
That's my edge, if I told you exactly what I did you simply wouldn't need me. But anytime you need to see verification that I bet the game myself, I'd show.
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10-23-2016 , 12:14 AM
oh okay i didnnt knnnow genneral annnd exact were synnonymous. sounndns like a super duper top secret system
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10-23-2016 , 12:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomatoe
oh okay i didnnt knnnow genneral annnd exact were synnonymous. sounndns like a super duper top secret system
My own personal stats and systems, knowing the right people, paying attention to line moves, comparing lines, research, etc.
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10-23-2016 , 01:08 AM
got it. i love it when you can unlock a good winning system
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