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Old 11-05-2012, 11:22 PM   #1
PropPlayer
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Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread (Should I Purchase Tips Discussed)

Should I purchase picks (tips) is a question the comes up frequently. It has long been addressed in our Sportsbetting FAQ with the answer previously reading No, see Paying for Picks for a discussion on this topic. That thread is however 6-years old and in the archives.

I'm sure it could be debated that discussion of RAS is different from a discussion of JohnDoeSports, but this is a matter of opinion. A fair portion of the discussion remains relatively the same no matter if we're talking a specific tout, tipster, picks seller etc, or just have someone asking "should I buy picks (tips)". My suggestion is let's use this thread for discussion of these topics with a quick note that spam is still NOT permitted (posts linking to tout sites will be deleted). Beyond that here is a good place to discuss any touts or the topic in general.
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Old 11-11-2012, 01:44 PM   #2
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Discussion about Purchasing Picks - Is it Worth it?

Hi,

Ive started enjoying having a bet on the football at the weekend. I just wish I had reliable tips to go on. Im not good at picking winning bets. I would really like a tipster, I dont mind paying. I would just like a recommendation for a quality football tipster, someone who takes it seriously and produces consistent results not some free crap website like most of my google searches uncover.

Cheers
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Old 11-11-2012, 03:05 PM   #3
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Re: Best Soccer Tipster Online?

Just my opinion here: generally speaking it is mostly scammers selling tips (picks). Many posting tips (picks) also have no more chance of flipping a coin heads than anyone else. However there are exceptions to this; I learned a lot about football (soccer) totals from a guy who never placed bets in his life and was initially giving out the info for free (not selling it).

I suggest reading the update I made to the FAQ:

Why do lines move?
What are off-market prices? (What are shaded lines?)
Is Beating the Pinnacle Price Profitable?
What is a No-Vig win probability/price/odds (how can I remove vig?)
What’s the Fair Price for Buying a Half Point?
What is Steam?
What is a Limit Collar? (What are Personal Limits?)
What are Dual Lines?

Understand betting is similar to a market of supply and demand. The higher your bankroll is the less +EV bets there are for your optimal bet size hanging around. When they do pop up there is a competition for them. So, if you're talented at sports betting it isn't long before you're placing max bets. Do you want to A) sharpen the market faster on the exact opportunities you are attacking by drawing attention to these spots, B) help others increase their bankroll to the point they're now competing with you up where there are far less spots? It doesn't make too much sense.

Because it doesn't make sense you have a combination of 1) running good for short period, 2) actual talent that will soon realize it is not worth it to sell picks, 3) those in it for the attention 4) fakers 5) scammers.

Even if there was such a thing as a great tipster in time all you would get is either 1) they quit and move on. 2) You have to use ninja speed to bet their tips (picks) before the odds move.

Why pay for tips (picks) when you can find the same cycle for free on forums, twitter and blogs (just tracking to see who to follow)? I think for the most part you have just as much chance of finding a good free tipster than you do a paid one. In fact might even have a better chance at a good free one, though I'm sure a few others might disagree.

There's a lot more than can be added here about padded records, not widely available odds and much more. But this is a good start regarding this topic.
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:07 PM   #4
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Re: Discussion about Purchasing Picks - Is it Worth it?

Short answer: No.

I believe it is nearly impossible to find anyone reliable / trust worthy. Seems like a too good to be true type situation. No people who sell picks seem to have any long term record available.

I agree with PropPlayer's twitter/2p2 capper following/tracking idea. Best to integrate with a community and figure out what works for you, but no easy way out, no short cuts.
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Old 11-12-2012, 01:03 AM   #5
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Re: Discussion about Purchasing Picks - Is it Worth it?

Go to the best bet or NFL thread; find someone with a winning record over a decent sample, tail their picks for free.
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Old 11-23-2012, 02:39 AM   #6
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Re: Questions about RAS

1) yes. and its even less than 2 min. try like 30 seconds. he recommends a "well timed phone call" if youre betting in vegas i think

2) im not sure what kinds of people buy his picks but yea theyre profitable. idk if hes the only guy whos been profitable but he certainly has the best track record.

3) hes not betting totals this year, hes been betting all sides. you can just bet the sides for whatever the offshore books max is. idk what vegas would do if you keep betting his side. idk if there is anyone here who makes $50k betting RAS sides but i guess you could. He won 30 units last year, so bet $1750 a side and youd make $52,500 which would get you $50k + cover the $1695 he charges for his picks.

And you're wrong about him not having a losing year ever. 2 years ago he lost. Thats obviously not a big deal since over the long term he's way up. But yea, he hasn't won every year.

His CFB plays are winners longterm too.
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Old 11-23-2012, 03:08 AM   #7
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Re: Discussion about Purchasing Picks - Is it Worth it?

Are you asking is it a good idea to invest $1695 to make $30k?

I'm sure there are guys who are betting as much as possible on each of his plays - or at least I'd hope that's what they'd be doing. Idk if anyone would pay $1695 just out of curiosity of what teams he's betting on.

You have a lot of questions but its very simple.

He has a set time that he says his plays will be out at. I think its like 8 AM pacific time or something - I'm not sure. He sends out his plays and you at 8 AM PST have your 9 betting sites open and the bet box clicked with your mouse positioned over the "place bet" button or whatever. You have the max wager copied on your clipboard and you hit control + V and click place bet.

What do you mean whats a well timed phone call? Call them as soon as you get his plays. And yea I guess that's what I'd do if I was betting only at Cantor but idk what other people do.
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Old 11-23-2012, 03:47 AM   #8
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Re: Questions about RAS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digital03 View Post
you basically have to be on the computer within 10 minute of his alert to bet his plays?

What is a well timed phone call in vegas? Would someone be just staying there at one of the cantor books and once he gets to picks, immediately go to counter and bet it all?
You wish! Lines move within 5-20 seconds. Impossible to do it at casinos. Sometimes you are able to do it via their phone apps - but not always. I don't think lines move based on heavy action, because it is always 1.5 instant line move. Most people think books are just subscribed to RAS and move the lines as RAS picks are released.
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Old 11-23-2012, 04:11 AM   #9
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Ras definitely for cbb and cfb if you have a local bookie that adjusts slowly. If u are betting offshore, its pretty hard to get his lines
Sigs probably has a robot that autobets the picks
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Old 11-27-2012, 04:53 PM   #10
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

This guy's better than RAS and only 10k per game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wg7w...1&feature=plcp
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Old 11-27-2012, 05:02 PM   #11
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

As someone else has mentioned, between the best bet threat and the 3+1 thread, there are people really crushing this season so far in both NFL and NCAA (I haven't looked at basketball). On the people I've tailed (I do pick and choose there), I'm something like 16-4. Obviously small sample size, but that's what I've got to work off so far.

Hasn't Apocalypse Wow been picking at close to 65% ATS in football now for back to back years based on some of the tracked contests on here?
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Old 11-28-2012, 12:31 AM   #12
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

What about highly reputable places like Docs sports? Or are they not reputable?

I can not really think of another service like them who it seems have a long history.
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:53 AM   #13
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Not reputable
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:55 AM   #14
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

how do you find out if they are reputable or not? or other sites are reputable?

aside from being associated with Cover which seems to be just like SBR
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Old 11-28-2012, 09:33 AM   #15
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERGOPHOBIA View Post
how do you find out if they are reputable or not? or other sites are reputable?

aside from being associated with Cover which seems to be just like SBR
Asking some of the more senior people on here seems to work.
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Old 11-28-2012, 09:23 PM   #16
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

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Not reputable
What's wrong with Doc Sports besides the incredibly selective marketing?
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Old 11-28-2012, 09:32 PM   #17
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

They are "creative" with their record and don't win
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Old 11-28-2012, 09:47 PM   #18
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

They market records when winning, don't when they are not. I've read posts over the years about them claiming false records too. Also purchasing ads in a paper or commenting on some other issue does not = featured in the way they are selling it. Imo it is all marketing spin designed to target the naive.
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Old 11-28-2012, 09:51 PM   #19
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Have 12 monkeys work as coin flippers. There will always be one with some sort of winning record to show. Someone will always be winning on Tuesdays, or if not Wednesday or if not.. for college hoops, or if not NBA or if not...(Always is positive variance to highlight). Also will be plenty of losses to grade as pushes, pushes to grade as wins on close calls. etc.
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Old 11-28-2012, 10:54 PM   #20
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

just browsing the forum, this sharky kid seems to be a good person to tail
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Old 01-08-2013, 03:58 AM   #21
jjwhite09
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Anyone ever heard of the Indian Cowboy?

Hey everyone...I've been a poker player for over 5 years now but I'm searching for an easier way. I just want to get drunk and watch games. I'm sick of the grind. Anyways, have any of you heard of a sports handicapper named Cowboy Indian? I heard he was legit and just want to do some research before I use his picks. Please let me know if you have. Thanks
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Old 01-08-2013, 04:39 AM   #22
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Go with ras or jdwarriors, don't trust indians
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Old 02-14-2013, 12:18 AM   #23
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

I think the real question is, what touts are LEGIT?


Docsports gives you a free $60 credit and also a money back guarantee, free money i think.
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Old 02-14-2013, 12:42 AM   #24
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Thinking does not seem to be your thing.
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Old 02-14-2013, 12:47 AM   #25
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Re: Buying Picks and Tout Discussion Thread - Should I Purchase Tips Discussed

Quote:
Originally Posted by ledoutwbottomset View Post
Thinking does not seem to be your thing.
I only think if i have too. No way I am going to try to tackle sports betting without a tout or coach, i would just get crushed.
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