I saw an old thread on this with some good conversation. Maybe it can get going again. I've posted some picks on sports betting forums without much feedback, so I figured I'd try here.
For what it's worth, I did have about 50 posts here over several years prior to the hack. The only notable one was this:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...r-room-519217/
Getting back in with my old account was a pain so I just made a new one. I've gone from betting on boxing half assed, to doing it full assed with pretty good results, but I have a lot to learn.
So, my favorite upcoming bet is Danny Geale -350 vs. Anthony Mundine, Jan. 30th.
The first fight was just about the best case scenario. He got a knockdown. He was also slicker and a notch quicker than Geale. He won by SD, with some viewers believing he won and some believing Geale won. Well, Mundine is slowing down. His work rate is even lower and his reflexes are a bit diminished. He doesn't look shot to me, but he has been in with the likes of Bronco McKart, while Geale has climbed to the top of the division
Geale has gotten much better and is more focused and accurate with his high work rate, instead of just kind of flailing away like he did in the first fight. So we know with almost complete certainty that 1) Geale will work as much as in the first fight. 2)His work will be significantly more effective) 3)Mundine will work even less. It's less certain, but still highly likely that Mundine's work will be less effective, even if it's only because Geale is more polished and harder to hit. I think we're getting a break on the price because of the first result, but it's actually a nice piece of evidence in favor of Geale.
Finally, though I think Mundine is more of a household name in Australia, this is his last hurrah at age 37. He's been laughably calling out Floyd in a desperate bid for a final payday.
Geale is a guy with a real chance to be the true middleweight champion of the world. That would be like a once in a lifetime thing for an Australian fan. On top of that, he has several really big money fights down the road for not only his promoter and sanctioning body, but for the promoters of the other top MWs in a fairly deep glamour division. Let's say, somehow, it is close again. We KNOW Geal is going to be coming forward and we know he is going to throw literally about twice as much. This is the style that got him a decision against Sturm in Germany. Mundine is virtually never getting a close decision in these circumstances. I'm a pretty honest guy and I would feel all that pressure if I was a judge for sure. The scumbags who actually do the judging are going to have no problem giving every close round to Geale just on work and aggression, even IF the aggression is ineffective.