I gotta say there was value in that line. Sucks it ended like it did.

Yeah. Know another guy who had it too. Pretty clearly on the right side. Shockingly, if you don't live in the US, it seems you can still get substantial + money on Vasquez to beat Burns. Who knows if/when that will happen.

Kind of thought this thread was dead, but if there's at least a few people hanging around, I'm on Mattysse to win with some on him to win by decision and the fight to go over tomorrow. Both guys are harder to hit than it might seem. I think it'll be competitive, but Lucas just has a few clear advantages that he should press to a late win.

Also, I think Kessler/Froch will go similarly to the first fight, which means all the value is on Kessler. People getting a bit carried away with Froch's recent performances, I think. They're great in themselves and he deserves to be celebrated, but Bute and Kessler are two different guys. Got some on the over in that one too.

I'm on Peterson by dec. at +350 which should def have some value. Prob Cano at + too over Mosley but not sure whether I'll bet that.

Re: Froch vs. Kessler, I think the value is all on Froch here, and this is coming from someone who bet heavy on Kessler and a Kessler dec in the first match. Froch was kind of tentative in the previous match, but even if the exact same fight were to occur and it were in Nottingham, Froch would def get the nod (and in any kind of close fight for that matter). Froch will also be much more confident, will press forward more and might potentially even ko Kessler, if not at least win rounds on walking forward like he did vs. Dirrell (who prob won rounds more clearly than Ward and still lost) the opposite of which won't happen. So yeah, don't really see Froch losing here.

Pretty much agree on everything here. I am also going to play Peterson by decision tonight.

Well, looks like we all lost money underestimating Matthysse. I think that's what it was too, as Lamont gave a fine effort.

My theory on Froch being tentative in the first fight was that Kessler was exploiting some holes in his game and creating that tentativeness. I saw the fight as going 1) Kessler exploits Froch down the middle 2) Froch seals up the middle and takes control 3) Kessler opens up and retakes control. I think that element is still there, though it will be close either way. Probably would just pass on the outcome altogether at current prices. Kessler by decision was +469 at one point. We'll see. Should be another entertaining one. Boxing is on a roll.

Also don't mind laying the juice on Bellew and Chilemba to go over. I don't really see any reason that they'll be able and willing to really land on each other now and I figure Bellew will be taking something off his punches just to land them and to conserve energy.

Any thoughts on Dawson?

Did anybody else see 5dimes post an incorrect line on Bradley-Marquez earlier in the day? They had Marquez listed at +150, every other line I've seen has Marquez as the favorite (and rightfully so imo). I didn't have any money in there and missed my chance to hammer it. They have since corrected it and Marquez is now -170. I wonder if they would have even let my bet stand had I got to it. What do you guys think?

They would have canceled it.

Gavin is down to -200 on 5d. I'm pretty sure I saw him up around -280, so this is welcome. I think Vassell can win if it turns into a headbutting, maul fest, but even then it's not a lock. If that doesn't happen, it seems to me like the disparity in class is pretty wide.

Canelo/Mayweather thoughts?

Thinking I'm gonna go with a square parlay of Mayweather and Matthysse.

Bet a small wager (50 bucks, heh) on Canelo. I have a feeling Mayweather finally loses.

Mayweather and Garcia. Bernard has been hyping up Garcia and I respect Bernard's opinion. And Garcia's a philly guy.

Mayweather...he can't lose if he can't even be punched! I wasn't around when Sugar Ray Leonard was but to me Mayweather looks like the best boxer of all time. And nothing recently has indicated him fading much. Yeah if he doesn't retire he'll eventually have to decline and then lose one, but I just don't see it happening now so suddenly. I think it would be more of a gradual decline, not from dominance to first loss just like that.

I also like Bradley+130, I just think the line should be closer to even.

I definitely think there is value in Canelo, but whether I'm willing to risk an entire unit on it I'm not sure.

Also considering Bradley next month.

I threw 50 bucks on him so if he wins, I can honestly say "I had money on him". heh

Mayweather doesn't look anything like the best fighter of all time. He drops rounds to guys like Robert Guerrero, he struggles against shot-fighters fighting well above their optimum weight like DLH and Cotto.

FMJ could have been one of the best lighweights of all time. But he decided to jump some weight classes and go after the money. His resume above 135 is not comparable to his days at 130-135. His resume above 140 is not impressive in the least. Canelo is by far his toughest opponent at 147+. It's not close. Look at it this way - Canelo would beat anyone Floyd has faced in the last few years.

I am not saying FMJ is not a great fighter. To compare him to a guy like Sugar Ray Leonard is silly though. Floyd literally hasn't fought a top opponent in years. He's fought names, but nobody that a young light-middleweight champion like Canelo wouldn't have destroyed.

He got out of jail and made Marquez look like trash. Marquez is on par with Pacquiao.

Only like 12% of Floyd's opponent's punches land on him, the lowest percentage ever. When I watch him I just don't see exploitable flaws in his game. I'm no Teddy Atlas though so maybe Canelo will open my eyes.

Ya it's hard to beat a fighter who never gets punched.

This is exactly my point.

1. Marquez' optimal weight was featherweight (126)

2. Floyd fought him at 147. Marquez looked horrible.

3. Canelo would destroy Marquez (he's too big)

4. the roided up Marquez should be OK at 147. The piss-drinking version Floyd fought was terrible at 147. After that he stopped drinking his piss and started using PEDs. His new trainer - Angel Heredia (now changed to Hernandez) is a steroid supplier. Marquez' new physiquie - at his age - I mean, give me a ****ing break. Only the idiots who didn't know Sosa/Maguire/Bonds were all roided up have any doubts about the current version of Marquez

Cotto seemed to land against him. At points in their fight, Cotto even outboxed Floyd from distance, in the center of the ring. Some people think the washed up DLH defeated Floyd.

I understand Floyd is great. And I know he rallied and clearly beat Cotto. Let's stop pretending he's invincible or he's something we've never seen before. He's beatable for sure.

Heavy on Floyd straight up at 1.42-1.4, some on him by decision/tech dec at 1.7ish (which is prob a better play than the other), on fight goes the distance at 1.45 (soft line which bwin only let me bet 1k euros on through 2 different options). Then Garcia at 2.5/1, Garcia dec 6/1, over 8.5 +105, fight goes dec +210. And the softline on Kid Galahad at -225. And Carlos Molina -260.

My plays since I guess I'm done betting.

Mayweather by DEC -158 looks like a good bet. I just don't see any non-fluke way he scores a stoppage.

I know you're in US but just FYI for others even after 5% commission deducted, right now can get $400 at effective odds -142 at Betfair and $900 more at effective odds -144.

Can anyone pm me a link to watch this fight. I would really like to watch it. Thanks.

Those would be idiots.

I can parlay mayweather -320 with over 11.5 rounds -290. Pinny has maywether at -290 and o11.5 rounds at -265 right now. What do you guys think? By the way I cant parlay Alveraz and the under.