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Old 12-15-2017, 10:30 PM   #1
genio27
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Big multis with very short priced bets

Just curious, does anyone here bet on big multis with only very short prices?

E.g. today:

Leg 1
Indiana Pacers +8.5
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Leg 2
Los Angeles Clippers +21.5
Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards

Leg 3
Miami Heat +16.5
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets

Leg 4
Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers

Leg 5
Orlando Magic +16.5
Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic

Leg 6
Toronto Raptors
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors

Leg 7
Utah Jazz +15.5
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics

Leg 8
Atlanta Hawks +17.5
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies

Leg 9
Chicago Bulls +18.5
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks

Leg 10
New Orleans Pelicans +12.5
New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Multi Paying: $2.83
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Old 12-19-2017, 10:25 AM   #2
Error Prone
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Why would you do this?

Unless you think there's an edge on each individual leg, or the events are somehow correlated, or there's a promo rewarding multis without T&Cs that prevent this, it's no better or worse than any other dart throwing method.
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Old 12-19-2017, 04:29 PM   #3
MisterRodriguez
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

https://www.unicef.org/
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Old 12-20-2017, 01:55 AM   #4
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Hahaha... have either of you tried this method? How can you be so sure that it's terrible?

Think about it like this... Combining a bunch of 'outcomes unlikely to lose' together and you get a better ROI if they all come through. There will be times when one or two of the legs fail, but that's the 'variance' of the method. You work with a bankroll and come out on top in the end. I see it as being similar to poker.

For argument's sake, I will keep a running tally here for the next 10 days of making bets like this and if my bankroll is less than $1000 I will accept defeat.

I'm not saying it's the best idea ever... but before shutting it down, I think it's worth testing a hypothesis.

Starting with tomorrow:

Bankroll: $1000.00

Stake: $100

Multi:
Leg 1:
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +12.5
Fixed Win $1.11

Leg 2:
Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12

Leg 3:
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Miami Heat +18.5
Fixed Win $1.12

Leg 4:
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Fixed Win $1.07

Leg 5:
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +10.5
Fixed Win $1.07

Leg 6
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers +10.5
Fixed Win $1.09 

Leg 7
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +5.5
Fixed Win $1.12

Multi Return: $1.94

Cue more responses about how dumb I am and this will never work
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Old 12-20-2017, 03:47 AM   #5
akkopower1
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

If you place negative EV bets, you lose money.

If you multi negative ev bets, you lose money really quickly.

As was said above.

You multi when using promos
Or you multi a string of +ev bets together.
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Old 12-20-2017, 07:48 PM   #6
purrretrog
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post

Cue more responses about how dumb I am and this will never work
Ah yes, but then of course youll prove us all wrong with your 10 day bet record.
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Old 12-22-2017, 05:42 AM   #7
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by purrretrog View Post
Ah yes, but then of course youll prove us all wrong with your 10 day bet record.
Show me your idea that works, Einstein?

Stake: $100

Quote:
Multi:
Leg 1:
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +12.5
Fixed Win $1.11


Leg 2:
Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12


Leg 3:
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Miami Heat +18.5
Fixed Win $1.12


Leg 4:
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Fixed Win $1.07


Leg 5:
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +10.5
Fixed Win $1.07


Leg 6
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers +10.5
Fixed Win $1.09 


Leg 7
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +5.5
Fixed Win $1.12


Multi Return: $1.94
This multi failed because the Rockets somehow lost.

Bankroll is now $900. New multi to come.

Last edited by genio27; 12-22-2017 at 05:49 AM.
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Old 12-22-2017, 10:57 AM   #8
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Bankroll: $900

Stake: $100

Multi (5 legs):

Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets +14.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Atlanta Hawks +20.5
Fixed Win $1.11 

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Charlotte Hornets +14.5
Fixed Win $1.13 

Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Fixed Win $1.12 

English Premier League Matches
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Double Chance - Arsenal or Draw
Fixed Win $1.40 

Return: $2.20
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Old 12-23-2017, 05:22 AM   #9
SwoopAE
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

I found the problem in your model, it's the Houston Rockets.

Maybe try betting parlays with all huge underdogs instead?
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Old 12-27-2017, 07:07 AM   #10
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me! Houston Rockets lol

Hope everyone had a good Christmas!

Back into the model now.

0/2 so far. Haters are loving it.

Bankroll remaining: $800

Stake: $100

Leg 1:
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +10.5
Fixed Win $1.13 

Leg 2:
Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
Dallas Mavericks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Leg 3:
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.10 

Leg 4:
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Fixed Win $1.18 

Leg 5:
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Leg 6:
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +9.5
Fixed Win $1.11

Multi Return: $2.04
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:27 AM   #11
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post
Stake: $100

Leg 1:
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +10.5
Fixed Win $1.13 

They lost by 11. LOL

Leg 2:
Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
Dallas Mavericks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 


Leg 3:
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +15.5
Fixed Win $1.10 

Leg 4:
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Fixed Win $1.18 

Leg 5:
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Leg 6:
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +9.5
Fixed Win $1.11

Multi Return: $2.04
This is seriously "run-bad"... To lose a dead cert line bet by half a point hurts. Honestly, for F*CK's sake. I know it seems now like "you guys were right, this is a bad idea" - but all of these multis have lost by one leg only, and I still believe in the method.


Bankroll remaining: $700

Record: 0/3




BACK ON THE HORSE...

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5
Fixed Win $1.17 

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Fixed Win $1.12 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Philadelphia 76ers +13.5
Fixed Win $1.10 

C Palace vs Arsenal
Double Chance: Draw or Arsenal
Fixed Win $1.18 

Multi Return: $1.70

Stake: $200


Just trying to rebuild the bankroll with a "low variance" option here.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:39 AM   #12
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post
all of these multis have lost by one leg only
Not true.
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Old 12-28-2017, 06:16 AM   #13
SwoopAE
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

For what its worth you should probably listen to the people that say 'a series of -EV bets combined cannot become a +EV bet' before you lose your remaining 700 dollars; try and find +EV bets instead.

But i'm down for the sweat to watch your thread, gl!
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Old 12-29-2017, 12:14 AM   #14
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny_B View Post
Not true.
Enlighten me, please, champion. If you're going to say that then I suggest you back it up. By my reckoning what I said IS true.
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Old 12-29-2017, 01:01 AM   #15
Johnny_B
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post
Enlighten me, please, champion. If you're going to say that then I suggest you back it up. By my reckoning what I said IS true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post
Leg 1:
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +12.5
Fixed Win $1.11
http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400975205
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Old 12-29-2017, 01:37 AM   #16
SwoopAE
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Hey, you're going to win one while martingaling a bit. System clearly works!
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Old 12-29-2017, 05:33 AM   #17
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Result:

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5
Fixed Win $1.17 

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Fixed Win $1.12 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Philadelphia 76ers +13.5
Fixed Win $1.10 

C Palace vs Arsenal
Double Chance: Draw or Arsenal
Fixed Win $1.18 

Multi Return: $1.70

Stake: $200

Return: $340

New bankroll balance: $840.00


Finally got one through.

1/4 so far. In the red for $160. Looking to get ahead this weekend.
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Old 12-29-2017, 05:34 AM   #18
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny_B View Post
My sincere apologies. I stand corrected.
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Old 12-29-2017, 05:41 AM   #19
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Bankroll: $840.00

Stake: $100

Multi:


Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors
Fixed Win $1.13 

Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat
Brooklyn Nets +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers +12.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Fixed Win $1.24 

Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Fixed Win $1.13 

Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns +12.5
Fixed Win $1.11 

Return: $2.20
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:58 AM   #20
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by genio27 View Post
Bankroll: $840.00

Stake: $100

Multi:


Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors
Fixed Win $1.13 

Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat
Brooklyn Nets +15.5
Fixed Win $1.12 

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers +12.5
Fixed Win $1.12 


Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Fixed Win $1.24 

Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Fixed Win $1.13 


Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns +12.5
Fixed Win $1.11 


Return: $2.20
Another LOSS here.

Bankroll is now $740. Starting to have my doubts about this method too, but I'm sticking with it. I've lost money in worse ways in the past.

I think I'll just let the remaining money ride on some multis tonight and accept that if it all fails then it wasn't the best idea.

Multi #1:
Bournemouth vs Everton
Double Chance: Draw or Everton
Fixed Win $1.50 

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 

Man Utd vs Southampton
Man Utd
Fixed Win $1.36 

Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return $2.32


----------------------------

Multi #2:

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 

Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Double Chance: Fiorentina or Draw
Fixed Win: $1.28 

Benevento vs Chievo
Double Chance: Draw or Chievo
Fixed Win $1.30 

Roma vs Sassuolo
Roma
Fixed Win $1.28 

Verona vs Juventus
Juventus
Fixed Win $1.19 

Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return: $2.88


----------------------------

Multi #3:

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 

Verona vs Juventus
Juventus
Fixed Win $1.19 

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Fixed Win $1.33 

UFC 219
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Edson Barboza
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Fixed Win $1.28 

Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return $2.30


----------------------------

Multi #4:

Newcastle vs Brighton
Double Chance: Newcastle or Draw
Fixed Win $1.25 

Liverpool vs Leicester
Liverpool
Fixed Win $1.30 

C Palace vs Man City
Man City
Fixed Win $1.25 

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win: $1.14 

Inter Milan vs Lazio
Double Chance: Draw or Lazio
Fixed Win$1.55 

Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return: $3.58


----------------------------

Bankroll remaining: $240.00

Let's see how the weekend goes. Happy new year to all.
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Old 12-30-2017, 09:39 PM   #21
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Results:

Multi #1:
Bournemouth vs Everton
Double Chance: Draw or Everton
Fixed Win $1.50 


Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 


Man Utd vs Southampton
Man Utd
Fixed Win $1.36 


Bet Amount: $100 -
Multi Return $2.32
LOST

----------------------------

Multi #2:

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 

Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Double Chance: Fiorentina or Draw
Fixed Win: $1.28 


Benevento vs Chievo
Double Chance: Draw or Chievo
Fixed Win $1.30 

Roma vs Sassuolo
Roma
Fixed Win $1.28 


Verona vs Juventus
Juventus
Fixed Win $1.19 


Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return: $2.88
LOST

----------------------------

Multi #3:

Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win $1.14 

Verona vs Juventus
Juventus
Fixed Win $1.19 

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Fixed Win $1.33 

UFC 219 (Awaiting outcome)
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Edson Barboza
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Fixed Win $1.28 


Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return $2.30
PENDING

----------------------------

Multi #4:

Newcastle vs Brighton
Double Chance: Newcastle or Draw
Fixed Win $1.25 

Liverpool vs Leicester
Liverpool
Fixed Win $1.30


C Palace vs Man City - Awaiting result
Man City
Fixed Win $1.25 


Chelsea vs Stoke
Chelsea
Fixed Win: $1.14 

Inter Milan vs Lazio
Double Chance: Draw or Lazio
Fixed Win$1.55 


Bet Amount: $100
Multi Return: $3.58
PENDING

----------------------------

New Multi:


Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Fixed Win $1.06 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
Fixed Win $1.34 

Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
Fixed Win $1.36 

Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
Fixed Win $1.18 

Stake: $100
Return: $2.27
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Old 01-02-2018, 04:08 AM   #22
ChrisV
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Posting in epic thread.
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Old 01-02-2018, 04:41 AM   #23
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Fair to say this experiment has failed miserably.

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Old 01-02-2018, 04:47 AM   #24
genio27
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

Still got $330 bankroll left ... hahaha... "all in"

English Premier League Matches
Southampton vs C Palace
Double Chance
Southampton or Draw
Fixed Win $1.22 

English Premier League Matches
Swansea vs Tottenham
Match Result
Tottenham
Fixed Win $1.33 

English Premier League Matches
West Ham vs West Brom
Double Chance
West Ham or Draw
Fixed Win $1.18 

English Premier League Matches
Man City vs Watford
Match Result
Man City
Fixed Win $1.16 

Multi Odds: $2.22
Stake: $330
Return: $732.60

I'll get my coat.
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Old 01-03-2018, 01:32 PM   #25
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Re: Big multis with very short priced bets

A coffee table fish tank

https://www.homerungifts.com/coffee-table-fish-tank/
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