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Old 09-13-2020, 04:42 PM   #1
Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 1
Betting rules US election and disputing results/not concede

What is pretty sure about this election is that the result will be disputed and it will drag on for months in the courts, so one can end up with one of the candidates winning most electoral votes on election day and another president inaugurated due to ruling in courts and recounting. This article brilliantly outlines different scenarios:

So I want to bet that Trump will be inaugurated as president, which taking the above into account might not be the same as winning most projected electoral votes on election day, which unfortunatly is what all betting sites has in its rules. Darn, is there any betting sites where you cant bet on who will be inaugurated or any tips how to hedge this bet.. Was planning to bet allot of money on Trump, but now I am not willing to take so much risk... It will be such a scandal if you bet on trump, but biden is the projected winner and then trump wins in courts and allot of people are fed up that they made the right choice but lost their money!
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Old 09-13-2020, 11:59 PM   #2
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,129
Re: Betting rules US election and disputing results/not concede

I understand what you're saying. I got a very clear read from my local's service, who wrote that they will check the New York Times web site at 9 AM every day until such time as the New York Times declares a winner. So, again, every Trump bet could be declared a loser and yet Biden never takes the oath of office.
My advice? Look into state-by-state wagers. Bet some of the ones that Trump will pretty obviously take in a situation where it's close enough to contest credibly, like Ohio and Georgia.
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Old 09-14-2020, 02:13 AM   #3
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Join Date: Jul 2008
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Re: Betting rules US election and disputing results/not concede

Yeah I don't get the Trump wins crowd directly when for example you can get a similar price on him to win Florida and there are very few scenarios where he's re-elected but loses Florida and quite a few where he wins Florida in scenarios where he loses (GA OH IA NC etc are other examples even stronger, if Biden is winning NC or GA or whatever he already won a while ago)

I'm on the other side personally, but if I was going to back Trump i'd rather take one of the states on the red side of the tipping point, something like PA or MI WI or maybe even AZ is what gets Biden to 270, by the time we get to GA TX NC OH etc he's already won comfortably

Also applies for if Biden is in danger in NV or MN or NH or whatever, at that point he's almost certainly already lost, the tipping point is probably the midwest and while it's possible Biden gets to 270 through FL AZ NC or whatever instead while losing the midwest, it certainly isn't likely, if he's winning those states he's almost certainly winning Michigan etc

If you take this map as the 'tipping point' states FL gets the Dems to 261, at which point Biden would have to lose all of AZ WI MI PA NC while winning FL somehow for Trump to be reelected

If you put FL in the red corner it's 232 to 233 and could go either way, with NC being 'redder' than FL by a small amount and I would argue all of AZ, MI, WI, PA being bluer by a small amount - could make a case the other way on AZ, but it's def a state trending blue, even if it goes red and NC does, the midwest gets Biden to 270, and if Wisconsin falls he still gets to 270 with Arizona - of course, Trump can win outright etc but the scenarios where he does so without Florida are very limited

Last edited by SwoopAE; 09-14-2020 at 02:21 AM.
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