Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
There's a good chance you're wrong because that sort of edge is pretty close to unattainable, although I do have a 15% roi on a very niche sport with low limits across 3 seasons and over a thousand wagers so it might not be impossible if you're betting some super niche sport but on mainstream sports it shouldn't be possible - just google kelly criterion and act accordingly.
If you really do have a big edge obviously it should be trivial to grow your bankroll quickly. Worth considering that your model is likely to be flawed though if it's returning 70% winners at a spread but if it really is that's your ticket to being a millionaire, gl.
The model output probability doesn't correlate with the model's overall accuracy. The overall accuracy is just over 60% for picking games where the favorite covers the spread. In the case of [0.3, 0.7] the prediction is the index of the largest number so 1. The model would say in that example that the favorite was going to cover. I was incorrect in thinking that 0.7 in that case had any association with odds given by the book and if it did then I would have to also take the overall accuracy into account.
Here are its predictions for today/tomorrow. So far the first lost but we'll see it how it ends up:
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Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Boston Celtics
-11.0 -110
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Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Chicago Bulls
5.5 -110
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Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Phoenix Suns
12.0 -110
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New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on New York Knicks
11.5 -113
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Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Minnesota Timberwolves
-2.0 -110
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Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Toronto Raptors
-8.5 -105
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz on 2018-10-22
Spread bet on Memphis Grizzlies
10.0 -110
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Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets on 2018-10-23
Spread bet on Sacramento Kings
11.0 -110
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Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans on 2018-10-23
Spread bet on New Orleans Pelicans
-6.0 -115
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I ran this about an hour before the celtics game but the time I posted this was Q3 in the bulls game. ignore the first two if you want because I obviously didn't post them here before the games but I did run this before those two games.