Best use of risk free bets on Superbowl?
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 13,453
Ok so I signed up with 2 online sportsbooks to get some action on the Superbowl. Each offers $500 risk free bet (wager returned as a single free bet if you lose). What is my best play for using these, assuming I bet $500 at each?
Should I just max one side, go for max profit and then hope to hit both free bets if I lose? Or would I be better off splitting the wagers which would leave me with approx $1000 (minus vig) regardless of outcome, plus one $500 free bet?
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,788
Not considering hedging, if you have a $50k bankroll the best odds to max EG is 22:1. If you have a $10k bankroll the best odds is 11:1. EG for $10k bankroll is 17% for 2 bets. So, find the closest to 0EV somewhere around those odds.
If you are hedging the best odds are both sides +100. EG for that is a bit lower, 13.6%.
Last edited by PokerHero77; 02-06-2021 at 09:32 PM.
Reason: I forgot you get your $500 bet + winnings + bonus
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 11
best bet for a risk-free rn based on quick look
Mahomes u0.5 TD passes +1300 & Gronk o9.5 yards 1st recept
for +2700
if you really want to make them pay combine with coin toss -103
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,788
I would go with the no-hedge option just for EG, but I would look for props that correlate. Something like Brady o3.5 TD passes + Gronk o0.5 TD reception, as those should be correlated. You are getting your $500 back for each bet if you lose, so the big premium is winning both bets.
And EG for the +100 hedge option should be 14.75%, assuming 2.5% vig. I used the log value above (0.136) without calculating exp().
Last edited by PokerHero77; 02-06-2021 at 09:47 PM.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,664
Bump for other thread asking about risk free bets
