I'm tired after a long day of poker and I can't figure this out, so any help would be appreciated. A good friend of mine noticed that Pinnacle had a line of California Chrome to win the Belmont at +130 and the field at -152. The track odds were 4/5, so there was a clear overlay here. He bet $18,000 on CC at +130 and then bet a ticket on every other horse in the race for an amount that would pay $23,000 thinking that he could lock up about 5K no matter who won the race. It wasn't until after the race that he realized that although he was collecting 23K from the sportsbook, his Pinnacle account was -18K AND he had put up close to 18K at the book. He lost over 13K trying to middle the race. Something does not add up here. If the track only takes about 20% of the handle, how could he lose as much as he did?

What time did he make his wagers at the sportsbook? It's impossible to figure out what the horses final odds are until they leave the gate. This isn't like sports where you get the line that is listed on the board or the program at the time you bet it. Sure his offshore wager was good for +130 on CC because that's a prop but depending on what odds he was looking at and the time probably screwed up his math.

Pinnacle let him bet $18K at +130 without moving the line? What was their max bet on that prop? Did they let him rebet it like 10 times without moving the line?

Here's what probably happened

1. Tonalist won. All that matters for your friend's payout is what Tonalist's closing odds were. Your friend probably did his calculations when Tonalist was 12 to 1 or better, but he closed at about 10 to 1.

2. Your friend probably screwed up the math anyway. He might have bet too much on other horses and not enough on Tonalist. Or, if he literally did exactly what you describe, "bet a ticket on every other horse in the race for an amount that would pay $23,000", then he forgot that his total track winnings would be $23K minus what he lost on the other horses he backed. In other words, he also lost the 9 other track odds bets he made.

He lost 10 bets and won one, thats what happened.

In the future, try this:
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...ing-calculator

The limit was 10k earlier in the day could have been more later.

lmao

lol thats a kick in the nuts

please don't disappear. I want to know everything about this...did your friend have to pay? does he have that much? Did he jump off a bridge? Please more info

Seconded. It's a bit of a sick comfort knowing someone screwed up more than I did.

guy is a legend

What did you do? I like hearing about colossal betting/hedging mistakes, god knows ive made my fair share

where did he -> then bet a ticket on every other horse in the race for an amount that would pay $23,000

parimutual odds are set once all money is totalled and fluctuates during betting period - they are never fixed until all bets reported from around the world. Tonalist dropped to 9/1 after race started and money totalled. Clearly did not have $2K on Tonalist

I had seen this thread pop up earlier and just thought it was ridiculous. But if you take a look at all the horses final post time odds, it seems like that if the proper amount was bet on each horse (assuming op means 23k payout with ur bet back obv) that this little caper actually should have worked. I don't feel like doing all the math, so I just skimmed the chart. Anyone else that feels like doing this is more than welcome.

Seems like one of the biggest issues is the logistics here of getting the proper bets down knowing exactly (or within a %pt or 2) what the horses final odds are going to be.

I'm curious about what you came up with. I played around a little with the final odds, and can't get anything close to a guaranteed profit.