Two Plus Two Poker Forums Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game
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 06-24-2018, 01:12 PM #1 Teski centurion     Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 176 Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game Hi there, Example: - We think we have a 5% edge on 'Over 1.5 Goals' in a certain game. - We think we have a 5% edge on 'Under 2.5 Goals' in the same game. Is it reasonable to make both bets? If yes, should the bet sizing be different? They are both valuebets, but we narrow down our positive outcomes sooo much. Thanks!
 06-24-2018, 01:14 PM #2 Teski centurion     Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 176 Re: Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game What I did now was just make the bet that had the most probability. EV-wise it's the same but it's lower variance.
 06-25-2018, 03:17 AM #3 sixfour should be called sevenfour     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Tungsten Analysis Posts: 64,237 Re: Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game you're basically needing to work out the EV of there being exactly two goals compared to the EV of having one of the bets palped because the book ****ed the line up
 06-25-2018, 03:46 AM #4 SwoopAE Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: I AM CAPITAO Posts: 19,609 Re: Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game The short answer is yes, if both bets are profitable on the surface obviously it's correct to make both bets and hope to middle it. Obviously you have the opposite of correlation here between your two bets, but if both are +5% both are +5% that doesn't change. I've made plenty of middle bets over the year where both sides of the middle are profitable (for example, if an AFL line is +13.5 true price and you can get +18.5 and -8.5 or whatever at -108 then yeah, it's 100% correct to take both sides, or similarly if you're getting -2.5 and +3.5 at -105 at two different books on an NFL line that should be 3 at +100 novig then yeah, you bet both sides of it)

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