Beginners Question - Soccer; Under/Over 2 single bets on the same game
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 241
Hi there,
Example:
- We think we have a 5% edge on 'Over 1.5 Goals' in a certain game.
- We think we have a 5% edge on 'Under 2.5 Goals' in the same game.
Is it reasonable to make both bets? If yes, should the bet sizing be different?
They are both valuebets, but we narrow down our positive outcomes sooo much.
Thanks!
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 241
What I did now was just make the bet that had the most probability. EV-wise it's the same but it's lower variance.
should be called sevenfour
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 74,738
you're basically needing to work out the EV of there being exactly two goals compared to the EV of having one of the bets palped because the book ****ed the line up
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
The short answer is yes, if both bets are profitable on the surface obviously it's correct to make both bets and hope to middle it. Obviously you have the opposite of correlation here between your two bets, but if both are +5% both are +5% that doesn't change.
I've made plenty of middle bets over the year where both sides of the middle are profitable (for example, if an AFL line is +13.5 true price and you can get +18.5 and -8.5 or whatever at -108 then yeah, it's 100% correct to take both sides, or similarly if you're getting -2.5 and +3.5 at -105 at two different books on an NFL line that should be 3 at +100 novig then yeah, you bet both sides of it)
