Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
That system maxing out at 1 percent is way way way too conservative to optimise br growth especially with a 200 dollar bankroll…
Preservation of Capital > Appreciation of Capital.
I don’t believe in optimizing BR growth and no one else does either, at least in practice. If you’re not position sizing off of Full Kelly for every bet (and you certainly shouldn’t be) you’re not optimizing BR Growth. Optimization requires certain inputs and we live in a world of probabilities, not certainties which is why The Optimization Game is a dangerous one because just on the other side is disaster.
In general, w/ a caveat, I agree that one should be more aggressive w/ smaller rolls but just because he has a smaller roll, it doesn’t mean he should be betting more of it. He should be more aggressive
IF that roll has zero utility to him; can he run it to zero and replenish it easily. If that’s not the case, you can’t compound on zero dollars so keep your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible. Risking no more than 1% of BR is compatible w/ that goal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
but I mean I have a fairly large br and 3 to 5 percent of br on big edge spots aren't uncommon for me and my biggest downswing is about 32 max bets in like a 30k bet sample pretty sure my bankroll would be less than half of what it is now if I capped out sizing at 1 percent of br.
My advice isn’t meant for more advanced Punters.
I’m pretty sure there is about a 98% chance that the OP isn’t presently operating w/ an edge and thus it would be irresponsible for him to risk > 1% at this time. You can argue he shouldn’t be betting at all w/out an edge but that’s a silly argument since you need to pay Tuition to the Market; it’s kind of a rite of passage
He needs to survive long enough in order to eventually, if ever, reach consistent profitability and build good disciplined habits along the way; money management principles are invariant.
I’m in no position to tell another man about his edge but I can say that edges can be very perishable things and if you’re betting 5% of Account Equity on a regular basis and you don’t pull your Systems or Models circuit breaker on time, then your Equity Curve could be deep under water by the time you recognize a leak.
Even risking 3%, which seems excessive, especially for a larger BR, can be hazardous to your wealth. Let’s say you’re simply Value Betting off the Market, well, Value Betting can have very idiosyncratic return paths and the math of losses works against you. A 25% loss requires a 33% gain just to get back to parity and the more of your account size you risk per bet, the faster you get there.
Everything can be perfect w/ everything but results are always randomly distributed and if you get a series of negative, contiguous losses, it becomes an exponential problem.
I’m speaking from a distance from your methodology and I’m from the school of, “Whatever Works,” so keep on keeping on but I certainly wouldn’t recommend your position sizing approach to others. I like to sleep better, not eat better
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Obv depends on size of edges like if you have a 1 percent Roi vs 4 or 5 percent or whatever you're gonna experience a ton more variance but obv you need to size up on big edges and down on small edges regardless... But 1 percent of br is way too conservative especially if the bankroll on question is hundreds of dollars not seven figures plus and therefore you can still be betting full units on niche markets with ease and therefore attainable edges are higher
As you are aware, your bet size should be based on…
Edge / (Odds-1) ….
… and choose a Kelly Multiple from there but if you aren’t confident in your approximate edge(s) then proportionally staking 1% of your roll will help you survive long enough to possibly attain that subjective probability skill set.
Last edited by GameBred; 11-22-2019 at 09:40 AM.